证券市场与经济增长：效应与经验分析

发布时间：2018-06-04 21:23

本文选题：经济增长 + 证券市场　；参考：《湖南大学》2001年硕士论文

【摘要】： 本文探讨的是证券市场在长期经济增长中的作用与效应。在既有的经济增长理论中，将更多的变量加以内生化以说明变量对经济增长的影响，但对于繁荣的证券市场并没有在理论上加以内生化，在经验分析上得出的结论总体上也是含糊的。利率内生化可能是证券市场的长期增长效应的一个未被发现的渠道和途径。一般的经济增长理论中所作的假定利率是统一和固定的与现实并不相符。银行为主的金融中介显著特征是借贷的差别利率，这种外在的差别利率可能会影响储蓄率、资本积累及经济增长速度。而证券市场将这种利率差别内生化，利率不再统一固定。不统一固定的利率会影响消费者对消费路径的选择，从而影响储蓄率、资本积累及增长速度。证券市场的长期增长效应的微观基础在于证券市场提供一种信息传导机制。选取全球97个国家众多变量进行的逐步回归分析映证了证券市场在经济增长过程中的作用，证券市场不仅能促使纵向意义上的增长，同时在横向上的收敛问题上与理论假设大体相符，，即证券市场可以促进资本流动，从而使经济趋于收敛。而对不协调发展的证券市场与中国经济增长的实证分析中，发现了一些复杂的问题。从时间序列(1992—2000)数据看，证券市场的发展是不协凋的，其长期增长效应并不显著；而对全国31省市区的横截面数据分析表明，自1992至1999年区域增长呈现一定的发散特征，证券市场可能加剧了这一发散过程。但同样地有一定的俱乐部趋同现象。
[Abstract]:This paper discusses the role and effect of securities market in long-term economic growth. In the existing theory of economic growth, more variables are internalized to illustrate the impact of variables on economic growth, but not in theory for the booming securities market. The conclusions reached in the empirical analysis are also vague in general. Interest rate internalization may be an undiscovered channel and channel for the long-term growth effect of the stock market. The assumption that interest rates are uniform and fixed in general economic growth theory does not conform to reality. The prominent feature of bank-oriented financial intermediation is the differential interest rate of lending, which may affect the savings rate, capital accumulation and economic growth rate. But the stock market will this kind of interest rate difference biochemistry, the interest rate is no longer unified fixed. Different fixed interest rates will affect the consumer's choice of consumption path, thus affecting the savings rate, capital accumulation and growth rate. The microcosmic foundation of long-term growth effect of securities market is to provide a mechanism of information transmission. The stepwise regression analysis of many variables in 97 countries shows the role of the securities market in the process of economic growth. The securities market can not only promote the vertical growth. At the same time, the horizontal convergence is consistent with the theoretical hypothesis, that is, the securities market can promote the capital flow, so that the economy tends to converge. Some complicated problems are found in the empirical analysis of the uncoordinated development of the securities market and China's economic growth. From the time series 1992-2000) data, the development of the securities market is uncoordinated, and its long-term growth effect is not significant, while the cross-section data analysis of 31 provinces and municipalities in China shows that the regional growth from 1992 to 1999 shows a certain divergence. The securities market may have exacerbated this divergence. But there is also a certain convergence of clubs.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2001
【分类号】：F830.9;F061.2

【共引文献】