更替性技术创新扩散系统随机演化模型参数研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 14:42

本文选题：技术创新 + 更替性技木创新扩散　；参考：《河北工业大学》2002年硕士论文

【摘要】： 更替性技术创新扩散过程，是迄今为止人们研究的最多且取得成果最丰富的一类扩散问题。以往对于更替性技术创新扩散模型问题的研究，，虽然建立起了形形色色的扩散模型，但均未能考虑扩散过程中的随机现象，具有一定的局限性。本文针对我们提出的扩散模型——更替性技术创新扩散系统随机演化模型，对其参数做深入的研究。首先对技术创新扩散模型的参数研究情况进行了评述，在此基础上，将技术创新扩散模型参数的研究范围由单一的估计扩展到讨论参数的经济含义、参数的影响因素及特性，再进行有效测度研究的领域。其次，针对本文中的扩散模型，对表征宏观因素的环境适宜度参数，提出应用BP神经网络的方法进行量化，建立了相应的神经网络模型；再次，对表征企业个体采用倾向的参数，从经济心理学的角度建立了定性的描述模式，并运用效用理论建立了测度模型；然后，对表征技术创新相对优势的参数，运用ISM的方法进行分析，并结合河北工业大学的CTST技术的创新扩散进行实例研究。
[Abstract]:The process of technological innovation diffusion is one of the most widely studied and fruitful diffusion problems. In the past researches on the diffusion model of replacement technological innovation have established a variety of diffusion models but they have not considered the random phenomenon in the diffusion process and have some limitations. In this paper, the parameters of the diffusion model, the stochastic evolution model of the replacement technological innovation diffusion system, are studied in depth. Firstly, the research on the parameters of the diffusion model of technological innovation is reviewed. On this basis, the research scope of the parameters of the diffusion model of technological innovation is extended from a single estimation to a discussion of the economic meaning of the parameters, the influencing factors and the characteristics of the parameters. The field of effective measure research. Secondly, aiming at the diffusion model in this paper, the method of BP neural network is put forward to quantify the environmental suitability parameters that represent macro factors, and the corresponding neural network model is established. In this paper, a qualitative description model is established from the angle of economic psychology, and a measure model is established by using utility theory to characterize the parameters of the enterprise's individual adopting tendency, and then, the parameters of representing the comparative advantage of technological innovation are given. The method of ISM is used to analyze, and a case study of CTST technology innovation diffusion in Hebei University of Technology is carried out.
【学位授予单位】：河北工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F062.4

【引证文献】