基于Agent的复杂经济系统仿真研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 23:31

本文选题：复杂经济系统 + 微观分析模拟模型　；参考：《太原科技大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济系统作为由各种经济代理人组成的典型复杂系统,在研究方法的重心上需要从传统的均衡静态模型转向适合复杂系统研究的新型工具。微观分析模拟模型是一种适合研究复杂经济系统的工具,自60年代出现以来,特别是八、九十年代在美国等国家获得了很大的发展,出现了诸如TRIM2、ASPEN等著名的模型。然而国内在这方面的研究还很薄弱。本文是对微观分析模拟模型的一次探索。文章首先在研究一些国外著名模型的基础上,结合离散事件系统仿真技术与面向对象方法与技术讨论了微观分析模拟模型建模的一般方法,提出了一种开发适合在计算机上运行微观模型的系统设计方法——“代理人”——“规则表”——“事件表”系统设计方法。之后,运用文中提出的系统设计方法建立了一个简单市场经济的二部门、三部门、四部门宏观经济仿真模型,构建了基于不同结点的Agent的四类代理人;界定了个人、企业、政府、国外贸易的经济行为,并且应用所建立的模型来模拟了二部门、三部门、四部门企业经济运行的基本状况,分析了在给定其它条件不变的条件下,投资增加时,一个经济系统的GDP增加从而对整个宏观经济以及其它企业经济的影响,对结果进行了分析并给出了一个仿真结果的经济学解释,从而验证了文中提出的系统设计方法的可行性与正确性。最后讨论了目前模型所存在的不足和需要进一步研究的问题。本文的主要内容为以下几个方面: (1)研究的背景与意义和国内外研究现状以及系统设计目标与设计思路; (2)系统实现相关基础理论与系统应用相关技术介绍; (3)Multi-Agent System经济复杂仿真系统的建模方法;建立了“代理人”——“规则表”——“事件表”的系统设计方法; (4)微观分析模拟中二部门、三部门、四部门主体分类统计与实现;Agent结点仿真建模;结点与成员变量Agent的设定;各事件间的引发机制;基础数据模板的构建; (5)代理人Agent推理机与规则库的设计; (6)系统数据库的设计;基于三层架构的.NET数据库业务系统的开发; (7)原形系统的设计与实现;用户层界面介绍与结果数据分析总结。
[Abstract]:As a typical complex system composed of various economic agents, economic system needs to change from the traditional equilibrium static model to a new tool suitable for complex system research. Microanalysis simulation model is a tool suitable for the study of complex economic systems. Since its emergence in 1960s, especially in the 1980s and 1990s, great progress has been made in the United States, and famous models such as Trim2Spen have emerged. However, domestic research in this area is still very weak. This paper is an exploration of microscopic analysis simulation model. Based on the research of some famous models in foreign countries, this paper discusses the general method of modeling microscopic analysis simulation model by combining the simulation technology of discrete event system and the object-oriented method and technology. In this paper, a system design method, "agent", "rule table" and "event table", which is suitable for running micro model on computer, is presented. Then, using the system design method proposed in this paper, the author establishes a simple market economy macroeconomic simulation model of two, three and four sectors, constructs four kinds of agents of Agent based on different nodes, defines the individual, the enterprise, The economic behavior of the government and foreign trade, and the application of the established model to simulate the basic conditions of the economic operation of enterprises in the second, third and fourth sectors. The effect of GDP increase in an economic system on the overall macroeconomic and other enterprise economies is analyzed and an economic explanation of the simulation results is given. The feasibility and correctness of the proposed system design method are verified. Finally, the shortcomings of the current model and the problems that need to be further studied are discussed. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the background and significance of the research, the current research situation at home and abroad, the design objectives and design ideas of the system, (2) the basic theory and the basic theory of the system realization. (3) the modeling method of Multi-Agent system economic complex simulation system; The system design method of "agent"-"rule table"-"event table" is established. (4) in micro analysis simulation, the classification and statistics of agents in two departments, three departments and four departments are carried out and the simulation modeling of agent nodes is realized. The setting of node and member variable Agent, the trigger mechanism between events, the construction of basic data template, the design of agent Agent inference engine and rule base, (6) the design of system database; The development of .NET database business system based on three-tier architecture; (7) the design and implementation of prototype system; the introduction of user layer interface and the analysis and summary of result data.
【学位授予单位】：太原科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：TP18;F014

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