萨默斯长期停滞理论辨析及其对中国的启示
发布时间：2018-08-20 10:30
【摘要】：针对2008年全球金融危机之后美日欧等发达经济体长期复苏乏力的态势,美国经济学家萨默斯提出了长期停滞理论。该理论认为,由于发达经济体的均衡实际利率将长期为负,货币政策受到"零下限"约束难以将现实中的实际利率压低至均衡实际利率的水平,由此导致经济体长期复苏乏力,而应对长期停滞的有效方法是实施积极财政政策以扩大总需求。长期停滞理论提出之后,许多知名学者表示认同,但是也有部分学者对该理论的核心机理和政策主张提出了质疑。事实上,长期停滞理论即使成立,也不适用于中国。究其原因,经济发展新常态以来中国均衡实际利率稳定在3%左右,明显高于美日欧等发达经济体。而且,中国政策利率水平仍然相对较高,通胀率和通胀预期也处于较高水平,因此可以通过降低政策利率或者提高通胀率,将实际利率降到均衡实际利率的水平。由此可见,中国经济并未陷入长期停滞。
[Abstract]:In response to the sluggish recovery in developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe after the 2008 global financial crisis, U.S. economist James Summers put forward the theory of secular stagnation. The theory holds that because the equilibrium real interest rate in the developed economies will be negative for a long time, monetary policy is constrained by the "zero floor" and it is difficult to reduce the real interest rate in reality to the level of the equilibrium real interest rate, which leads to a long period of sluggish recovery in the economy. And the effective way to deal with long-term stagnation is to implement active fiscal policies to expand aggregate demand. After the theory of secular stagnation was put forward, many famous scholars agreed, but some scholars questioned the core mechanism and policy proposition of the theory. In fact, the theory of long-term stagnation, if established, does not apply to China. The reason is that since the new normal of economic development, the equilibrium real interest rate of China has stabilized at about 3 percent, which is obviously higher than that of developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe. Moreover, China's policy interest rates are still relatively high and inflation expectations are high, so real interest rates can be reduced to equilibrium real interest rates by lowering policy rates or raising inflation rates. This shows that the Chinese economy has not fallen into a long-term stagnation.
【作者单位】： 中国人民大学经济学院;中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“利率市场化背景下中国货币政策框架的转型研究”(15XNI006)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F091.3;F124
本文编号：2193277
[Abstract]:In response to the sluggish recovery in developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe after the 2008 global financial crisis, U.S. economist James Summers put forward the theory of secular stagnation. The theory holds that because the equilibrium real interest rate in the developed economies will be negative for a long time, monetary policy is constrained by the "zero floor" and it is difficult to reduce the real interest rate in reality to the level of the equilibrium real interest rate, which leads to a long period of sluggish recovery in the economy. And the effective way to deal with long-term stagnation is to implement active fiscal policies to expand aggregate demand. After the theory of secular stagnation was put forward, many famous scholars agreed, but some scholars questioned the core mechanism and policy proposition of the theory. In fact, the theory of long-term stagnation, if established, does not apply to China. The reason is that since the new normal of economic development, the equilibrium real interest rate of China has stabilized at about 3 percent, which is obviously higher than that of developed economies such as the United States, Japan and Europe. Moreover, China's policy interest rates are still relatively high and inflation expectations are high, so real interest rates can be reduced to equilibrium real interest rates by lowering policy rates or raising inflation rates. This shows that the Chinese economy has not fallen into a long-term stagnation.
【作者单位】： 中国人民大学经济学院;中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“利率市场化背景下中国货币政策框架的转型研究”(15XNI006)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F091.3;F124
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