我国工业行业碳税政策效应及最优税率研究

发布时间：2018-10-19 09:25

【摘要】：目前,我国已经成为世界上能源消费量、碳排放量最大的国家之一,面临着发展低碳经济的国际压力。经济新常态下,“十三五”规划从单一目标转变为双项目标,重点关注环境质量改善和污染物总量控制,而碳税作为促进能源、经济、环境协调持续发展且最具市场效率的重要举措,不仅有助于实现节能减排、推进绿色发展,而且有利于民生福祉,因此备受关注。本文基于2007年投入产出表等数据,引入能源投入与碳排放量数据,编制了2007年能源、经济、环境社会核算表(CE3-SAM);在原始模块中,引入化石能源投入模块,非预期的输出,即碳排放模块,能源和环境政策变量的碳税模块,及资本积累动态模块,构建集能源、经济、环境为一体的可计算一般均衡模型(CE3-CGE),全面阐释了碳税税率对宏观经济带来的一系列影响,模拟了碳减排目标下征收不同碳税税率对25个工业部门产生的影响,包括部门产出效应、能源结构及进出口贸易结构调整效应、节能减排效应及社会效应等;最后预测得到实现2020年碳减排目标时的最优碳税税率的变动区间,探讨了中国实现低碳情景所需的发展路径。研究表明:征收碳税会对高碳排放企业带来成本压力,降低其竞争力,调整进出口量,但是对于低碳排放企业的影响效果不大;同时,碳税政策造成煤炭和石油的消耗量与消耗占比均呈下降趋势,而天然气作为清洁能源,短期内消耗量会有所下降,但在长期由于技术进步其消耗量与消耗占比均呈增长趋势;此外,碳税的征收使居民就业率、居民收入及居民福利的变动都呈先下降后上升的趋势;最后,中国最优碳税税率需要不断进行调整,未来最优碳税税率应介于40元/吨-70元/吨之间。
[Abstract]:At present, China has become one of the largest energy consumption and carbon emission countries in the world, and is facing the international pressure of developing low carbon economy. Under the new normal state of the economy, the 13th Five-Year Plan has changed from a single objective to a dual goal, focusing on improving environmental quality and controlling the total amount of pollutants, while the carbon tax is used as an energy source to promote the economy. The important measures of coordinated and sustainable development of environment and most efficient market are not only helpful to realize energy saving and emission reduction, promote green development, but also benefit the well-being of people, so they have attracted much attention. Based on the data of input-output table in 2007, the energy input and carbon emission data are introduced, and the energy, economic, environmental and social accounting table (CE3-SAM) is compiled in 2007, and in the original module, the fossil energy input module is introduced, and the unexpected output is introduced. That is, carbon emission modules, carbon tax modules for energy and environmental policy variables, and dynamic modules for capital accumulation to build energy collection, economy, The computable general equilibrium model (CE3-CGE), which integrates the environment, comprehensively explains a series of effects of carbon tax rate on macroeconomic, and simulates the impact of different carbon tax rates on 25 industrial sectors under the carbon emission reduction target. Including sectoral output effect, energy structure and import and export structure adjustment effect, energy saving and emission reduction effect and social effect. Finally, the range of the optimal carbon tax rate for achieving the 2020 carbon emission reduction target is predicted. The development path needed to realize low carbon scenario in China is discussed. The research shows that the levy of carbon tax will bring cost pressure to high-carbon enterprises, reduce their competitiveness, adjust the import and export volume, but have little effect on low-carbon enterprises; at the same time, The consumption and consumption of coal and oil are decreasing due to the carbon tax policy, while the consumption of natural gas, as a clean energy, will decrease in the short term, but the consumption and consumption will increase in the long run due to technological progress. In addition, the levy of the carbon tax has led to changes in the employment rate, income and welfare of residents all showing a downward trend and then an upward trend. Finally, China's optimal carbon tax rate needs to be continuously adjusted. The best future carbon tax rate should be between 40 yuan and 70 yuan per ton.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：X196;F812.42

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