基于云模型碳排放权价值评估的研究

发布时间：2018-10-22 13:44

【摘要】：目前,全球气候变化的问题已然影响了世界政治、社会、经济等诸多的方面。而作为一种经济与市场手段解决这些问题的有效方法,碳排放权交易已经在世界各地以不同的程度展开。通过借鉴欧盟碳排放交易机制的成功经验,中国也于2013年在全国七个省市进行了试点,与此同时,全国统一的碳市场交易也即将展开。但随之而来是碳排放权这一新兴事物到来后,中国以及中国各地区究竟该如何合理定价,以达到节能减排的作用的问题。论文沿着这一提问,对此进行深入思考。目前,我国尚处在建立真正意义上的碳排放权交易市场准备阶段,学术界相关的基础理论与制度建议的研究已经展开,这篇文章也正试图在这方面作出自己的努力,期望能够为碳排放权交易定价工作提供可供参考的定价方法,对以后的制度和政策提供有益的建议。本文首先阐明了研究的背景和意义、研究的内容、方法及思路,然后进行了文献回顾,分析研究了碳排放权相关的重要概念、碳排放权交易相关理论基础、中国碳市场交易的现状。本文在进行了碳排放权评估方法的比较与评价后,选择以市场法为基础对区域碳排放权价值进行评估,并建立了影响中国区域碳排放权价格的影响指标体系,构建了基于云模型的碳排放权价值评估模型。最后通过对北京地区的碳排放权价格的实证评估,用以检验该模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:At present, the problem of global climate change has affected many aspects of world politics, society, economy and so on. As an effective economic and market means to solve these problems, carbon emissions trading has been carried out in various parts of the world. By learning from the successful experience of the European Union's carbon emissions trading mechanism, China also carried out a pilot project in seven provinces and cities in 2013. Meanwhile, a unified national carbon market transaction will soon begin. But then comes the question of how China and all regions of China should be reasonably priced in order to achieve the role of energy saving and emission reduction after the arrival of carbon emission rights. The paper goes along this question, carries on the thorough ponder to this. At present, China is still in the stage of preparing for the establishment of a real carbon emissions trading market. The research on the relevant basic theories and institutional suggestions in academic circles has already been carried out, and this article is also trying to make its own efforts in this respect. It is expected to provide a reference pricing method for carbon emissions trading and provide useful suggestions for future systems and policies. In this paper, the background and significance of the research, the contents, methods and ideas of the study are first expounded. Then, the important concepts related to carbon emission rights and the theoretical basis of carbon emissions trading are analyzed and studied. The status quo of carbon trading in China. After comparing and evaluating the assessment methods of carbon emission rights, this paper chooses the market method as the basis to evaluate the value of regional carbon emission rights, and establishes an impact index system that affects the price of regional carbon emission rights in China. The value evaluation model of carbon emission rights based on cloud model is constructed. Finally, the validity of the model is tested by the empirical evaluation of the carbon emission price in Beijing.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F832.5

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