可持续增长模型及其应用分析

发布时间：2019-04-30 07:09

【摘要】：从经济学的一般原理——“经济人”追逐自身利益的最大化，到企业经营管理者总是企望企业做大再演绎成企业财务目标——“所有者财富最大化”，都是把最大化的增长当成一个必须达成的终极化目标。因此，企业的经营管理者无论在制订长远战略规划还是在日常的生产经营中都极力甚至是不顾一切地去占领市场，扩充生产规模，促进销售的最大化增长。然而，事实是过于快速的增长与过于缓慢的增长一样会给企业的发展带来严重的弊端。大量案例表明，许多企业就是因为盲目的扩展而导致破产。 问题的关键在于随着生产、销售的迅速增长，必然面临财务资源的约束，即生产、销售的增长会带来对资金增长的需要，而一旦企业不顾一切地追求最大化的增长，融资能力往往会达到极限，从而使企业产生财务危机，阻碍其进一步增长。如果在此时不进行财务资源的重组，继续追求最大化的增长，其结果将危及企业的生存。因此，任何企业在制订增长计划时，都必须充分考虑财务资源的约束，必须在销售增长与融资需求增长之间搞好平衡，以保证企业的健康发展。 保证企业平衡增长的增长率就是企业的可持续增长率，可持续增长率(sustainable growth rate，简称SGR)指“在不需要耗尽财务资源的情况下，公司销售所能增长的最大比率。”只有在企业的实际增长率与可持续增长率保持一致时，才说明企业的财务资源得到了充分合理的利用。那么，公司的可持续增长率是如何决定的呢?公司的实际增长率与可持续增长率发生偏差时，公司应该如何采取措施来保证平衡增长呢?本文对此进行了详细的分析和研究。 本文首先对可持续增长模型做了详细的分析，在此基础上为了将可持续增长率与备种变量之间的关系更直观地表现出来，本文通过对杜邦分析体系进行改进，，建立了可持续增长分析体系，绘制出可持续增长分析体系图将现金流量表、损益表和资产负债表纳入财务分析体系中。随后，本文以30家上市公司的财务数据为样本进行了实证分析，对30家上市公司的可持续增长率和实际增长率进行了比较，并试图从中找出，企业在实际中是如何对可持续增长率进行调整，从 可持续增长模型及其应用分析 而实现平衡增长的。然后，本文对企业为了实现可持续增长与实际增长的一致所 应采取的财务策略和经营战略做了详细的分析。最后，本文应用可持续增长模型 对我国行业的可持续增长情况做了简单分析。
[Abstract]:From the general principle of economics-"economic man" pursues the maximization of self-interest, to the enterprise manager always expects the enterprise to be bigger and then deduces into the enterprise financial goal-"owner wealth maximization". It's all about maximizing growth as a final polarization goal that must be achieved. Therefore, both in making long-term strategic planning and in the daily production and operation, the managers of the enterprise try their best to occupy the market, expand the production scale and promote the maximum growth of sales. However, the fact is that too fast growth and too slow growth will bring serious disadvantages to the development of enterprises. A large number of cases show that many companies are blindly expanding and leading to bankruptcy. The key to the problem is that with the rapid growth of production and sales, it is bound to face the constraints of financial resources, that is, the growth of production and sales will bring about the need for capital growth, and once enterprises are desperate to pursue maximum growth, Financing capacity often reaches the limit, which causes financial crisis and hinders its further growth. If we do not reorganize the financial resources at this time and continue to pursue the maximum growth, the results will endanger the survival of the enterprise. Therefore, any enterprise must fully consider the constraints of financial resources when making a growth plan, and must balance the growth of sales and the growth of financing demand, so as to ensure the healthy development of the enterprise. The rate of growth that guarantees a firm's balanced growth is the sustainable growth rate of a company, or (sustainable growth rate, or SGR, which means "the maximum rate of growth in sales without the need to run out of financial resources." Only when the real growth rate of the enterprise is consistent with the sustainable growth rate, can the financial resources of the enterprise be fully and reasonably utilized. So, how does the company's sustainable growth rate determine? When there is a deviation between the real growth rate of a company and the sustainable growth rate, how should the company take measures to ensure balanced growth? This paper has carried on the detailed analysis and the research to this. This paper first makes a detailed analysis of the sustainable growth model, and on this basis, in order to show the relationship between the sustainable growth rate and the seed preparation variables more intuitively, this paper improves the DuPont analysis system, The sustainable growth analysis system is established, and the cash flow statement, profit and loss statement and balance sheet are incorporated into the financial analysis system by drawing up the sustainable growth analysis system. Then, taking the financial data of 30 listed companies as a sample, this paper compares the sustainable growth rate with the real growth rate of 30 listed companies, and tries to find out from them. In practice, how to adjust the sustainable growth rate and how to achieve balanced growth from the sustainable growth model and its application analysis. Then, this paper makes a detailed analysis of the financial strategy and management strategy that enterprises should adopt in order to achieve the consistency between the sustainable growth and the real growth. Finally, this paper uses the sustainable growth model to make a simple analysis of the sustainable growth of the industry in our country.
【学位授予单位】：上海海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2003
【分类号】：F061.2

【引证文献】

中国期刊全文数据库 前1条

1 邢俊英;;可持续增长率与财务管理目标相关性分析[J];中央财经大学学报;2006年09期

中国硕士学位论文全文数据库 前2条

1 林娜;可持续增长模型及其实证检验[D];山东大学;2008年

2 李红璐;基于财务视角的信息技术上市公司可持续增长能力评价研究[D];沈阳理工大学;2013年

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