我国鸡蛋价格波动研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 08:37

本文关键词：我国鸡蛋价格波动研究　出处：《南京农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章： 鸡蛋价格 波动 影响因素 供给反应 规模

【摘要】：近年来,我国鸡蛋产业取得了较快的发展,不仅鸡蛋总产量保持常年稳步增长,而且养殖结构,饲养方式以及蛋品质量等诸多方面都取得了较大的提高。但生产力水平的制约使得我国鸡蛋产业还具有以下明显特点:中小养殖规模仍然是主要的供给形式,卫生防疫机制的不完善使得重大疫情时有发生,鸡蛋产销地之间价格传导不畅、蛋品加工产业发展滞后等等。在这一背景下,我国鸡蛋价格波动具有明显的周期性,这种波动每隔2-3年就会出现一次,同时疫情发生的年份常常伴随着剧烈的波动。另外在短期波动特征上,还具有明显的集聚性、持续性和非对称性,这对鸡蛋及其相关市场的稳定运行带来了极大的不利影响。鸡蛋价格波动从根本上仍然是供求不平衡的结果,但从波动机理看,则是内生结构性因素和短期外生冲击因素共同作用的结果。特别是以雏鸡和饲料为主的生产成本的变动在鸡蛋价格波动中起着决定性作用,而以疫情为代表的突发事件的冲击是引起鸡蛋价格短期波动的主要原因。另外,以猪肉为代表的替代品效应以及收入水平提高带来的正向效应也不容忽视。更进一步,鸡蛋价格波动主要源于供给端的不稳定,而供给的不稳定则和养殖户的供给反应行为有关。一方面,基于全样本的供给反应研究表明我国鸡蛋供给的短期和长期价格弹性均缺乏弹性,养殖户对鸡蛋价格的变化反应较为迟钝。另一方面,基于规模分组的供给反应研究表明,规模化养殖的短期和长期供给弹性均远远高于非规模化养殖,同时规模化养殖下投入成本对当期产量的促进作用也要远远高于非规模化养殖。(蔡少杰,周应恒,2014)基于上述分析,本文提出了建立鸡蛋相关市场价格定期监测发布机制、建立健全卫生防疫体系以及建立政府补偿金制度、加快推进蛋鸡适度规模标准化养殖等政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's egg industry has made rapid development, not only the total output of eggs has maintained a steady growth all year round, but also the structure of aquaculture. However, the restriction of productivity level makes the egg industry of our country also have the following obvious characteristics: the medium and small scale of breeding is still the main supply form. The imperfect health and epidemic prevention mechanism makes the major epidemic occur frequently, the price transmission between the production and sale of eggs is not smooth, the development of egg processing industry lags behind, and so on. The fluctuation of egg price in China has obvious periodicity, which will occur every 2-3 years, and the epidemic year is often accompanied by violent fluctuation. In addition, the characteristics of short-term fluctuation. There is also obvious agglomeration, persistence and asymmetry, which has a great negative impact on the stable operation of eggs and their related markets. The price fluctuation of eggs is still the result of the imbalance of supply and demand. However, the fluctuation mechanism is the result of both endogenous structural factors and short-term exogenous shock factors, especially the change of production cost, which is mainly composed of chicken and feed, plays a decisive role in the fluctuation of egg price. The impact of the sudden events represented by the epidemic situation is the main reason for the short-term fluctuation of egg price. The substitution effect represented by pork and the positive effect brought by higher income level can not be ignored. Furthermore, the fluctuation of egg price is mainly due to the instability on the supply side. The instability of supply is related to the supply response behavior of farmers. On the one hand, the supply response research based on the whole sample shows that the short- and long-term price elasticity of egg supply in China is inelastic. On the other hand, the supply response based on scale grouping shows that the short-term and long-term supply elasticity of large-scale farming is much higher than that of non-large-scale farming. At the same time, the effect of input cost under large-scale aquaculture on current production is much higher than that of non-large-scale aquaculture. (Cai Shaojie, Zhou Yingheng 2014) based on the above analysis. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as establishing regular monitoring and issuing mechanism of egg market price, establishing and perfecting health and epidemic prevention system, establishing government compensation system, and speeding up the standardization of laying hens' moderate scale.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.7

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