江苏省粮食生产效率与生产能力的区域比较研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 05:00

本文关键词：江苏省粮食生产效率与生产能力的区域比较研究　出处：《扬州大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着城镇化建设进程的不断推进,大量农业人口转化为非农业人口,人均耕地面积不断减少,而人均粮食需求量大幅增加,粮食生产供需不平衡问题已严重威胁到我国粮食安全。江苏省所处的长江中下游平原是我国四大粮仓之一,但苏南、苏中、苏北区域发展不平衡,研究江苏省的粮食生产对城镇化背景下如何指导省级乃至全国的粮食生产都具有极其重要的意义。本文在对相关文献进行梳理回顾的基础上,运用定量与定性分析相结合的方法,分别从粮食生产效率和生产能力这两大维度对江苏省粮食生产的“质”和“量”两方面进行全面、细致的研究。首先,分别构建江苏省粮食生产效率与生产能力的研究模型,通过超效率DEA模型和因子分析模型,分别测算出江苏省13个地级市2002-2013年的粮食生产效率和粮食生产能力。其次,对两个模型结果分别进行截面数据分析和时间序列数据分析。超效率DEA模型的截面数据分析结果显示,江苏省粮食生产效率格局为苏南粮食生产效率高而苏北粮食生产效率低,时间序列数据分析结果显示,各市的粮食生产效率与该市从事粮食生产的劳动力人数、粮食作物播种面积呈正相关关系。通过因子分析模型得出如下结论：苏北地区的粮食生产能力较强,但农业技术相对落后；苏南地区的粮食生产能力较弱,但农业生产技术先进。最后,根据实证分析所得出的结论,针对苏南、苏中、苏北三个区域的具体粮食生产条件和存在问题,提出具有针对性的各区域粮食生产建议,具有现实适用性。
[Abstract]:With the urbanization process, a large number of agricultural population into non-agricultural population, per capita arable land area decreased continuously, while the per capita grain demand a substantial increase in grain production, supply and demand imbalance problem has been a serious threat to China's food security in Jiangsu province. The long river river plain is one of China's four major granary but in South of Jiangsu, Suzhou, Jiangsu unbalanced regional development, research on grain production of Jiangsu province is of great significance to guide the provincial and national food production on the background of urbanization. Based on the foundation of combing into review of relevant literature, using the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, comprehensive two respectively from the grain production efficiency and production capacity of the two dimensions of grain production in Jiangsu province "quality" and "quantity", and meticulous research. First, grain production in Jiangsu province were constructed respectively. Study on the model of efficiency and production capacity, the super efficiency DEA model and factor analysis model, calculates 13 prefecture level cities of Jiangsu Province in 2002-2013 food production efficiency and food production capacity. Secondly, on the results of two models were analyzed cross section data analysis and time series data. Data analysis results of super efficiency DEA model the display efficiency pattern of grain production in Jiangsu province for the efficiency of grain production in South of Jiangsu and Subei grain production efficiency is low, the time series data analysis showed that all food production efficiency with the number of labor force engaged in the production of grain, grain sown area was positively correlated. Through the factor analysis model to draw the following conclusion: the northern Jiangsu area grain production capacity is strong, but the agricultural technology is relatively backward; South of Jiangsu grain production capacity is weak, but the most advanced agricultural production technology. Then, according to the conclusions obtained from the empirical analysis, specific food production conditions and existing problems in three regions of South of Jiangsu, Suzhong and Northern Jiangsu were put forward, and targeted regional grain production recommendations were put forward, which has practical applicability.

【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.11

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