新疆农业碳排放时空特征、峰值预测及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 09:28

本文关键词：新疆农业碳排放时空特征、峰值预测及影响因素研究　出处：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：[目的]通过研究新疆农业碳排放峰值预测和影响因素能真正为新疆低碳农业发展和减排路径选择作出科学的评判和提供借鉴。[方法]文章基于种植业活动、牲畜养殖、农田土壤、秸秆焚烧4个方面23类碳源,测算了新疆1995~2014年农业碳排放量,并从时间、结构和空间维度分析其变化特征;在此基础上构建STIRPAT模型,并运用情景分析法对未来新疆农业碳排放峰值进行相关预测;同时,利用LMDI方法对新疆农业碳排放影响因素进行分解。[结果]新疆农业碳排量呈现"波动上升—持续上升"两阶段变化特征,碳排放量由1995年的1 942.7万t增加到2014年3 921.3万t,增幅1 978.6万t,年均增长3.77%;各地(州,市)区域差异明显,喀什地区属碳排放量、碳排放强度"双高"型地区,阿勒泰等4地区属低碳排放量、高碳排放强度地区,乌鲁木齐等5地区属碳排放量、碳排放强度"双低"型地区,昌吉回族州等4地区属高碳排放量、低碳排放强度地区;若农业碳排放影响因素保持原有增长率不变情况下,新疆农业碳排放不会在2050年内达到峰值,在基准情景和低碳情景下,新疆农业碳排放峰值出现时间分别为2040年和2029年,碳排量分别为7 457.68万t和4 755.23万t;与1995年相比,效率因素、结构因素分别累计实现0.33亿t(97.47%)、0.008 6亿t(2.53%)的农业碳减排,经济因素是农业碳排放最主要的驱动因素,累计实现了0.41亿t的碳增加,人口因素为农业碳排放另一重要因素,累计实现了0.13亿t的碳增加。[结论]秸秆焚烧是导致新疆农业碳排放量增加的最主要碳源;碳排放量、碳排放强度和碳排放结构空间差异明显;不同情景下新疆农业碳排放峰值出现时间差异较大;经济因素是导致新疆农业碳排增加的主要驱动因素。据此,根据新疆实际合理优化调整农业产业结构,加快推进绿色农业现代化;加强生态环境建设,提高农业生产资料的利用效率;转变增长方式,走两型农业之路。
[Abstract]:[Objective] through the research on Influencing Factors of Xinjiang agricultural carbon emission peak prediction and influence can really for Xinjiang low carbon agriculture development and emission reduction path to choose the scientific evaluation and reference. The planting method, based on livestock, make the farmland soil, straw burning 4 aspects of 23 kinds of carbon source, measure the 1995~2014 in Xinjiang agriculture carbon emissions, and from time and space dimensions, structure analysis of its characteristics; on the basis of constructing STIRPAT model, and the use of scenario analysis in the future of Xinjiang agricultural carbon emission peak of prediction; at the same time, the influence factors of Xinjiang agricultural carbon emissions. The decomposition of Xinjiang agricultural carbon emissions showed rising volatility - continued rise two stage variation by using LMDI method, carbon emissions increased by 19 million 427 thousand T in 1995 to 39 million 213 thousand T in 2014, an increase of 19 million 786 thousand T, with an average annual growth rate of around 3.77%; (state, city) Significant regional differences, Kashi region belongs to carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity of "double high" type area, Aletai 4 area belongs to low carbon emissions, high carbon emission intensity area, Urumqi area is 5 carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity of "double low" areas, 4 areas of Changji Hui Prefecture belongs to high carbon emissions, low carbon emission intensity area; if the influence factors of agricultural carbon emissions growth rate remained unchanged, Xinjiang agricultural carbon emissions would peak in 2050, in the baseline scenario and low-carbon scenario, Xinjiang agricultural carbon emission peak time respectively in 2040 and 2029, the carbon emissions were 74 million 576 thousand and 800 t and 47 million 552 thousand and 300 t; compared with 1995, the efficiency factors, structural factors were accumulated for 33 million T (97.47%), 860 thousand T (2.53%) of the agricultural carbon emission reduction, economic factors are the main driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions, total 41 million T carbon Increase in population factors for agricultural carbon emissions is another important factor, total 13 million T carbon increased. Conclusion] straw burning is the main carbon source of Xinjiang agricultural carbon emissions increased; carbon emissions, carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity differences in spatial structure is obvious; the different scene under the Xinjiang agricultural carbon emission peak time difference; economic factors are the main cause of driving Xinjiang agricultural carbon emissions increase. Therefore, according to the reality of Xinjiang optimal adjustment of agricultural structure, accelerate green agricultural modernization; strengthen the construction of the ecological environment, improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural means of production; change the mode of growth, two type agriculture road.

【作者单位】：新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院;新疆农业大学林学与园艺学院;
【基金】：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目“新疆农业碳排放研究:驱动机理、峰值预测与控制策略”(2016D01B017)
【分类号】：F327;X71
【正文快照】： 0引言近年来气候变化所导致的高温热潮、暴雨连连、旱灾、沙尘暴频发事件的概率持续增加,CO2是造成该现象的源头之一,因此,发展低碳经济、发展节能减排成为全球关注的热点。2014年《中美气候变化联合声明》提出我国将于2030年左右达到碳排放峰值的庄严承诺,2015年12月12日,195

【相似文献】