南京市土地资源安全SD法评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-14 10:34

本文关键词：南京市土地资源安全SD法评价研究　出处：《资源科学》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：土地资源安全是国家安全和区域安全的重要内容,保障土地资源安全是社会的迫切需求。本文以南京市为研究对象,从"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)思路出发制定区域土地资源安全评价系统框图,将土地资源安全系统分为粮食安全保障、土地经济安全、土地生态安全3个子系统。基于系统动力学,分析其与区域社会、经济和自然环境之间的相互影响关系,并进行定量化仿真模拟研究,全面揭示土地资源系统的稳定性、安全性和连续性。通过建立区域土地资源安全评价系统流图,开展SD动态仿真模拟,进而采取层次分析法进行指标权重的确定,综合评价区域土地资源安全等级。通过对设计的15种方案SD仿真模拟,得出了南京市土地资源安全战略发展最优方案,最终选择方案3、6、2、9作为南京市土地资源安全的优化模式,又以方案3为最优。本文采用Vensim PLE软件对所建立的模型进行了适合性和一致性检验。本文构建的SD仿真模型是集社会、经济、自然环境外部系统和内部结构为一体的综合性动态分析模型,能够清晰地表达出土地资源安全系统的整个关系网,可为区域土地资源安全评价特别是其在时间维度上的对比研究提供参考。
[Abstract]:The security of land resources is an important part of national security and regional security. It is an urgent need of society to ensure the security of land resources. This paper takes Nanjing as the research object. Based on the idea of "pressure-state-response", the frame diagram of regional land resource security evaluation system is made, and the land resource security system is divided into food security and land economic security. Based on the system dynamics, the interaction between land ecological security and regional society, economy and natural environment is analyzed, and the quantitative simulation research is carried out. The stability, security and continuity of the land resource system are revealed comprehensively. The SD dynamic simulation is carried out by establishing the flow chart of the regional land resource security evaluation system. Then the AHP method is adopted to determine the index weight and evaluate the regional land resource security grade synthetically. The SD simulation of 15 schemes is carried out. The optimal plan for the development of land resource security strategy in Nanjing is obtained. In this paper, Vensim PLE software is used to verify the suitability and consistency of the established model. The SD simulation model constructed in this paper is social and economic. The comprehensive dynamic analysis model of natural environment external system and internal structure can clearly express the whole relationship network of land resource security system. It can be used as a reference for regional land resource security evaluation, especially for its comparative study on time dimension.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学公共管理学院;南京工业大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金资助项目(10BJY040) “十三五”国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0701601-02)
【分类号】：F301
【正文快照】： 1引言土地作为人类不可或缺的物质基础,是人类活动的栖息地和衣食的基本来源。健康的土地功能是维系经济安全和社会稳定的决定性因素,关系到国家的政治安全、经济安全、国防安全和人民的生存安全。当前社会经济的快速发展对土地资源系统产生了一些负面的影响,导致了一系列问题

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