拜城县土地利用动态变化及预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 19:40

本文关键词： 土地利用时空变化 CA-Markov 驱动因素　出处：《新疆大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的快速发展,人类对土地的需求和利用方式发生改变,从而改变了土地利用格局,土地利用矛盾日益明显,亟需对未来土地利用格局进行科学性的指导,从而充分利用土地资源,所以探讨土地利用格局变化机制及驱动因素,对土地利用格局进行预测研究,为今后制定科学、可持续发展的土地利用规划方案和景观格局优化提供依据。本文开展县域土地利用变化预测,分析拜城县2005-2015年土地利用动态变化及景观空间格局演变特征,探讨拜城县全域景观格局的驱动机制,基于CA-Markov模型对全县景观格局变化进行模拟研究,本研究主要得出以下结论:(1)2005-2015年间,县域范围内土地利用格局发生较大变化,表现为建设用地、耕地和林地的增加而草地和未利用地减少,其中变化较大的为建设用地共增4874.45hm2,未利用地减少3597hm2,土地利用程度变化量为1.19。景观多样性指数的增加,表明人类活动使得地类破碎程度加深,地类中斑块的形态趋于复杂和不规则,研究区内利用类型越来越复杂多样。(2)驱动因素综合影响土地利用变化,耕地和建设用地大部分分布于坡度小于6°,高程小于1651m的区域;人口和经济因素促进城镇的发展,建设用地与非农业人口呈显著相关,相关性系数为0.951;道路和河流对建设用地有较强的吸引力,随着缓冲距离的增加,建设用地分布呈下降趋势;规划和政策导向和约束建设用地的发展,同时保护县域内耕地动态平衡。(3)将拜城县2015年预测土地利用类型图与2015年实际土地利用类型图进行比较,用Crosstab检验得到Kappa指数为0.9128,CA-Markov预测精度较高。预测2020年建设用地19211.84hm2呈扩张趋势,耕地面积107123.14hm2,既满足了县级的建设发展,同时耕地的数量又得到充分的保障。总体上看,CA-Markov预测土地利用变化有一定优势和准确性,运用到县级土地规划中有一定的可行性,为土地利用规划提供依据,为拜城县国土资源局及相关单位在土地管理工作上提供参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy, the human demand for land and the mode of use have changed, thus changing the pattern of land use, the contradiction of land use is becoming more and more obvious. In order to make full use of land resources, it is urgent to give scientific guidance to the future land use pattern, so it is necessary to explore the mechanism and driving factors of land use pattern change and forecast the land use pattern. For the future development of scientific, sustainable development of land use planning program and landscape pattern optimization to provide the basis. This paper carried out the county land use change prediction. This paper analyzes the dynamic changes of land use and the characteristics of landscape spatial pattern evolution from 2005 to 2015 in Baicheng County, and probes into the driving mechanism of the landscape pattern in the whole area of Baicheng County. Based on the CA-Markov model, the landscape pattern change of the whole county is simulated. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: 1. The land use pattern in the county area has changed greatly, which is the increase of construction land, the increase of cultivated land and woodland, but the decrease of grassland and unused land, among which 4874.45 hm ~ 2 of construction land has increased greatly. The unused land decreased by 3597hm2, and the change of land use degree was 1.19.The increase of landscape diversity index indicated that the fragmentation of land species was deepened by human activities. The patterns of patches tend to be complex and irregular, and the types of land use in the study area are becoming more and more complex and diverse. 2) the driving factors affect the land use change synthetically. Most of the cultivated land and construction land are distributed in areas with slope less than 6 掳and elevation less than 1651 m. Population and economic factors promote the development of cities and towns. Construction land is significantly related to non-agricultural population, the correlation coefficient is 0.951; Roads and rivers have strong attraction to construction land. With the increase of buffer distance, the distribution of construction land shows a downward trend. Planning and policy guiding and constraining the development of construction land. At the same time, to protect the dynamic balance of cultivated land in county area. 3) to compare the map of predicted land use type in 2015 with the actual map of land use type on 2015 in Baicheng County. The Kappa index was 0.9128 by Crosstab test. The forecast precision of CA-Markov was higher. In 2020, the construction land was expected to expand in 192.84 hm ~ 2, and the cultivated land area was 107123.14 hm ~ 2. At the same time, the amount of cultivated land has been fully guaranteed. Generally speaking, CA-Markov prediction of land use change has certain advantages and accuracy. It is feasible to apply it to the land planning at the county level, which provides the basis for the land use planning, and provides the reference for the land management work of the land and resources bureau of Baicheng county and the relevant units.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2

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