供给和需求视角下农民工市民化进程测度研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 21:42

本文关键词： 农民工市民化需求市民化供给市民化程度　出处：《安徽财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在中国经济进入新常态背景下,拉动经济发展的主要动力是扩大内需,新型城镇化是扩大内需的最大潜力所在,而农民工市民化之于新型城镇化问题,如洞见症结。然而,在农民工为中国经济社会做出重大贡献后,却成为生活在城市的“边缘人”。推动农民工尤其是新生代农民工转化为完整意义上的市民,成为一项迫在眉睫的工作。本文试图从需求和供给的角度入手,结合经济学理论和劳动力转移理论,构建一个需求和供给的视角分析农民工市民化进程问题的研究框架,对农民工的市民化需求、市民化供给以及市民化进程进行分析。首先,系统梳理国外劳动力转移和国内农民工市民化研究的理论成果。国外劳动力迁移理论已较为成熟,影响范围广的有刘易斯—拉尼斯—费景汉模型、托达罗城—乡人口迁移模型、唐纳德?博格的推—拉理论、新劳动力迁移经济学、基于人力资本的成本—收益理论等;国内农民工市民化研究集中在内涵、实现障碍、实现路径方面,并已取得了丰硕成果,但在农民工市民化进程测度方面的研究依然薄弱。其次,从人口特征、家庭特征、职业特征、居住特征、制度保障、社会参与六个方面描述和分析农民工的特征。农民工以初中教育程度为主,缺少技能培训,主要从事体力性工作;举家迁移、子女随迁程度低,在外务工生活消费能力不强,居住以雇主或单位提供住宿为主,自购房比例低;留城意愿强烈,但社会保障欠缺、社会参与意识和法治观念淡薄。再次,对农民工的市民化需求和市民化供给展开分析。首先,采用交叉表法和二元Logistic回归模型,分析人口特征、家庭特征、职业特征、居住特征、制度保障、社会参与6类30个变量对农民工市民化需求的影响,研究发现,性别、年龄、受教育程度等15个变量对农民工的市民化需求有显著影响。其次,运用零膨胀负二项回归模型和有序响应Probit模型,从工作稳定性和工资决定两个角度探讨了农民工市民化供给的影响因素,结果表明,临时性和不稳定性是农民工职业的重要特征,受教育程度、参加技能培训情况、务工城市工作年限等体现人力资本水平的变量对农民工工资都有正向影响。然后,从供需均衡的角度出发,运用需求可识别的Biprobit模型测度农民工市民化程度。测得农民工总体市民化程度36.89%,远低于63.54%的市民化需求,进一步研究发现,农民工对市民化具有较大的需求,却未被城市政府纳入到城镇化有效需求序列,并且过度倾向大城市的内部需求结构,供需结构失衡,造成农民工市民化的供需矛盾比较突出。最后,结论与政策建议。基于分析结论,从政府职能定位、破除制度阻力、扩大城镇化供给、有序地释放农民工对市民化的需求、引导农民工就近城镇化等方面提出对策。
[Abstract]:Under the background of China's economy entering the new normal, the main driving force of economic development is to expand domestic demand, the new urbanization is the greatest potential of expanding domestic demand, while the urbanization of migrant workers is the problem of new-type urbanization. However, after making great contributions to China's economy and society, migrant workers have become "marginal people" living in cities, and promoting the transformation of migrant workers, especially the new generation of migrant workers, into citizens in a complete sense. This paper attempts to start from the point of view of demand and supply, combining the theory of economics with the theory of labor force transfer. Build a perspective of demand and supply of migrant workers to analyze the process of urbanization of the research framework to analyze the demand of migrant workers, the supply of the city and the process of urbanization. First of all. Systematically combing the foreign labor force transfer and the domestic migrant workers citizenship research theoretical results. The foreign labor migration theory has been more mature, with a wide range of influence of the Liu Yi-la Nis-Fjinghan model. Todaro city-rural migration model, Donald? Borg's push-pull theory, the economics of new labor migration, the cost-benefit theory based on human capital, etc. The research on the urbanization of migrant workers in China focuses on connotation, obstacles to realization, path of realization, and has achieved fruitful results, but the study on the measurement of the process of urbanization of migrant workers is still weak. Secondly, from the population characteristics. The characteristics of migrant workers are described and analyzed in the following six aspects: family, occupation, residence, system security and social participation. Migrant workers are mainly in junior middle school education, lack of skills training, and are mainly engaged in manual work. Family migration, children with low degree of relocation, living and consumption capacity of migrant workers is not strong, living mainly to employers or units to provide accommodation, low proportion of self-purchase; Strong will to stay in the city, but the lack of social security, social participation awareness and the concept of the rule of law is weak. Thirdly, the demand and supply of migrant workers in the city. First of all. The cross table method and binary Logistic regression model are used to analyze the population characteristics, family characteristics, occupation characteristics, living characteristics and system security. The study found that 15 variables, such as sex, age and education level, had a significant impact on the demand of migrant workers. By using the zero-expansion negative binomial regression model and the ordered response Probit model, this paper discusses the influencing factors of migrant workers' civic supply from the perspectives of job stability and wage determination, and the results show that. Temporary and unstable is an important feature of migrant workers occupation, education level, participation in skills training. Migrant workers' wages are positively affected by the variables such as the number of years of employment in cities and other variables reflecting the level of human capital. Then, from the point of view of the equilibrium of supply and demand. The Biprobit model which can identify the demand is used to measure the degree of peasant laborer's citizenship. The total degree of urbanization of migrant workers is 36.89, which is far lower than that of 63.54%. Further study found that migrant workers have a greater demand for citizenship, but not included in the urban effective demand sequence by the city government, and excessive tendency to the internal demand structure of large cities, the imbalance of supply and demand structure. Finally, conclusions and policy recommendations. Based on the analysis of the conclusions, from the position of government functions, to break down the system resistance, expand the supply of urbanization. In order to release the demand of peasant workers to the city and guide the migrant workers to the nearby urbanization and other aspects put forward countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.6;F299.2

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