基于增强回归树的畜禽养殖业减污增效供给侧改革分析

发布时间：2018-01-29 15:38

本文关键词： 畜禽养殖业增强回归树方法排污强度供给侧改革减污增效措施省际差异　出处：《江苏农业科学》2017年19期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：采用增强回归树(boosting regression tree,简称BRT)方法分析了2012—2015年我国除港澳台之外畜禽养殖业排污强度省际差异的影响因素及其贡献率,在此基础上讨论了我国畜禽养殖业减污增效的供给侧改革对策。结果表明,目前我国华北地区、黑龙江、辽宁、宁夏、山东、上海、广东、浙江和河南等地的畜禽养殖业排污强度较高,是畜禽养殖业减污增效的关键地区;畜禽养殖业排污强度总体上随着生猪饲养规模和奶业比重的增加而增大,随着牧业比重和氨氮/总氮比值的增加而降低,随着奶牛饲养规模、生猪比重、化学需氧量(简称COD)/氨氮比值和农牧比值等的增大呈先增大后降低趋势。东部沿海地区应重点推进规模化生猪养殖场向生态化和零排放转型;西北牧业、半牧区应充分挖掘优质牧草的生产潜力,做到以草定畜、草畜平衡,从而实现粪污的循环利用;东北和华北粮食主产区应突出农牧结合、以地定畜,优化养殖场空间布局便于粪污无害化处理与就地还田。
[Abstract]:An enhanced regression tree was used to boost regression tree. The BRT method was used to analyze the influencing factors and their contribution rate of the provincial differences in pollution intensity of livestock and poultry breeding in China except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan from 2012 to 2015. On this basis, the supply-side reform countermeasures of reducing pollution and increasing efficiency of livestock and poultry breeding in China are discussed. The results show that North China, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Ningxia, Shandong, Shanghai and Guangdong are the main areas in China. In Zhejiang and Henan provinces, the pollution discharge intensity of livestock and poultry breeding industry is relatively high, which is the key area of reducing pollution and increasing efficiency of livestock and poultry breeding industry. As a whole, the discharge intensity of livestock and poultry industry increased with the increase of the scale of live pigs and the proportion of dairy industry, decreased with the increase of animal husbandry specific gravity and the ratio of ammonia nitrogen to total nitrogen, and with the raising scale of cows, the proportion of live pigs. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) / ammonia nitrogen ratio and the ratio of agricultural and animal husbandry increased first and then decreased. The eastern coastal areas should focus on promoting the ecological and zero emission transition of large-scale pig farms. Northwest animal husbandry, semi-pastoral areas should fully tap the productive potential of high-quality forage, so as to achieve the balance between grass and livestock, so as to realize the recycling of manure; In the main grain producing areas of Northeast and North China, the combination of agriculture and animal husbandry should be emphasized, and the spatial layout of breeding farm should be optimized for harmless treatment of manure and local return to the field.
【作者单位】：常州信息职业技术学院经贸管理学院;常州大学环境与安全工程学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(编号:14YJAZH078) 江苏省政策引导类计划(编号:BY2015027-08) 江苏省高校“青蓝工程”学术带头人培养对象资助项目
【分类号】：F326.3;X713
【正文快照】： 近20年来我国畜牧业得到了持续稳定的发展,畜牧业总产值从1996年的0.63万亿元上升到2015年的2.98万亿元,年增长率为6.43%,为保障城乡肉蛋奶供应、繁荣农村经济作出了重大贡献,但同时也引发了严重的环境污染问题。畜禽养殖粪便和污水中含有大量的耗氧类有机物和氮、磷等营养物

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