基于目标值的土地警素指标的预警研究——以上海市土地类指标为例

发布时间：2018-02-21 09:11

本文关键词： 土地评价目标值警素指标预警研究上海市　出处：《中国土地科学》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：研究目的:探寻基于目标值的土地运行关键指标预警研究的方法,及时提出警戒信息与调控措施。研究方法:采用趋势预测法对警素指标的未来值进行预测,用年均增长率函数倒推法确定目标值倒推值,结合预测值与目标值倒推值确定2015—2020年弹性警界线,采用统计误差理论所得出3σ法则来确定警度界限的区间,采用景气信号灯法判别警情,黄色信号灯表示轻警、红色信号灯重警,采用情景分析法分析不同减量化目标下警情的变化趋势。研究结果:上海市建设用地总规模若按减量递增10%,则2018年后需要保持零增长,若减量递增30%,则增量还有一定上行空间;工业用地占比的预测值在未来5年内都处于红色预警,但警情有较为合理的自下降趋势。研究结论:建设用地应遵循"五量并举"的调控思路,努力实现规划建设用地"负增长"目标;而工业用地则通过加强分类引导,采取二次开发、复合利用等措施,优化用地结构,使工业用地占比回落到正常区间。单一警素指标预警适用于时间序列较长且有目标值的指标,未来的研究重点应在单项预警的基础上,构建以土地要素为核心的多要素安全综合预警体系。
[Abstract]:Objective: to explore the method of early warning research on the key indicators of land operation based on target value, and to put forward the warning information and control measures in time. The target value is determined by the average annual growth rate function method, and the elastic warning line of 2015-2020 is determined by combining the predicted value with the target value. The interval of the limit of alarm degree is determined by using the 3 蟽 rule derived from the statistical error theory. Using the prosperity signal lamp method to judge the police situation, the yellow signal light alarm, the red signal light alarm, The change trend of warning situation under different reduction targets is analyzed by scenario analysis. The results are as follows: if the total scale of construction land in Shanghai is increased by 10 percent, then it needs to maintain zero growth after 2018, and if the reduction is increased by 30 percent, there is still some room for the increment to go up. The forecast value of industrial land proportion is in red early warning in the next five years, but the police situation has a reasonable downward trend. We should strive to achieve the goal of "negative growth" of the planned construction land, and optimize the structure of the land for industrial use by strengthening the guidance of classification, taking measures such as secondary development and compound utilization, etc. The single alarm index can be applied to the indicators with long time series and target value. The emphasis of future research should be on the basis of single warning. A comprehensive early warning system of multi-factor security with land element as the core is constructed.
【作者单位】：南京农业大学公共管理学院;上海市地质调查研究院;上海市国土资源调查研究院;
【基金】：上海市地质调查研究院招标项目“土地运行体征指标构建及其决策咨询机制研究”(2015(D)-018(F)) 江苏省社会科学基金“城乡建设用地流转中可置换用地指标的预警体系研究”(14GLD004)及其配套项目“南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学研究基金”(SKPT2015001) 南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社科研究基金“城乡建设用地增减挂钩的预警体系及风险防控研究”(SKCX2015007)
【分类号】：F301.2

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