基于格网的南昌市土地生态承载力评价

发布时间：2018-02-21 07:13

本文关键词： 土地利用人口空间分布生态足迹生态承载力　出处：《江西农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：可持续发展的核心问题是资源环境可否持续利用的问题。人们为了追求经济的快速发展,对自然资源的利用大大超过了资源的更新能力,造成资源供给不足,严重威胁着人类的生存和发展。生态承载力研究作为评价可持续发展的重要方法之一,在生态学、环境科学、资源学和经济学结合的基础上综合评估人类的活动是否在地球资源可承受的范围之内。当人们意识到生态承载力是问题关键时,各国学者开启了积极的探索之路。目前有关于生态承载力的研究大多数都是以行政区域作为单元,以探究行政区范围的生态承载力状况,而缺乏对行政区内部生态承载力的分析评价。本文结合土地利用,运用新兴的GIS技术探寻小尺度的生态承载力状况将是一个全新的视角。本文以南昌市(包括四县五区)作为研究区,对2012年的TM遥感影像图进行解译提取土地利用数据,并联合2000年、2005年和2010年3期的土地利用数据,运用GIS格网技术方法,分城镇和农村分别模拟人口空间分布,在此基础上,运用生态足迹方法,对研究区进行了分别以市域、县区和格网为评价单元的生态承载力评价,探究了2000-2012年生态承载力状况的动态变化过程,分析了生态承载力变化的原因,以及针对研究区目前的生态承载力状况提出了控制人口规模,严把土地利用方式转变关等建议和对策。得到的主要结论有:(1)通过解译结果可知,南昌市域范围土地利用类型中,耕地是分布最为广泛的,其所占面积最大,林地、水域和建设用地面积依次递减。在2000年到2012年间,耕地和林地面积整体呈下降趋势,建设用地总量不断升高,耕地和林地转换为建设用地的趋势明显。(2)在人口空间分布的模拟中,城镇人口的空间分布呈现出由圈层内向圈层外递减的趋势,越靠近城市中心,人口越密集,这一点在整个南昌市区(包括5个区)表现的尤为明显。而乡村人口的空间分布与研究区土地利用类型中的农村居民点、耕地和林地的面积成正相关关系,其中与农村居民点的相关性最大,相关性系数值为26.663,耕地次之,其值为3.584,与林地的相关性最弱,其系数值为0.403。在整个研究区人口空间分布的模拟结果中,模拟人口数与统计人口数相差2.49万人,基本上达到了人口总数模拟一致的要求。(3)2012年整个研究区的人均生态足迹为1.295,人均生态承载力为0.460,生态承载力供需差值为-0.835,生态承载力评价状态表现为生态赤字。在分县区进行生态承载力评价时,南昌市(包括5个区)表现为生态赤字,而南昌县、新建县、进贤县和安义县都表现为生态敏感。在格网上对研究区进行生态承载力评价时,生态赤字区、生态敏感区、生态持平区和生态盈余区均有分布,生态承载力状态在很大程度上与土地利用类型契合,主要表现在:生态赤字区和生态敏感区多对应于土地利用类型中的建设用地区,生态持平区多对应于耕地区和未利用地区,生态盈余区多对应于林地区和水域。(4)2000年到2012年间,研究区范围内生态承载力变化最明显的就是生态赤字区的范围,从2000年的南昌市市区小范围逐渐扩展,到2012年的大范围的生态赤字区,不仅原来的市中心较小范围的生态赤字区成“摊大饼”式的扩展,呈现出生态赤字由点到面式的扩展。进贤和安义中心城区也呈现出生态赤字由点到面式的扩展,同时,在整个研究区范围内,生态赤字区和生态敏感区跟随路网的延伸而蔓延。
[Abstract]:The core of sustainable development is the sustainable utilization of resources and environmental problems will. People in the pursuit of rapid economic development, regeneration and utilization of natural resources greatly exceeded the resources, resulting in insufficient supply of resources, a serious threat to human survival and development. The ecological carrying capacity research as one of the important methods in the evaluation of sustainable development ecology, environmental science, economics and resource based on the combination of comprehensive evaluation of human activities within the scope of the earth's resources can bear. When people are aware of the ecological carrying capacity is the key problem, scholars opened the active exploration of the road. There are studies on the ecological carrying capacity of most of the administrative region as a unit, to explore the scope of administrative area of ecological carrying capacity, and the lack of analysis and evaluation of the ecological carrying capacity within the administrative region. Combining with the land The status of ecological carrying capacity by using the new GIS technology to explore the small scale will be a new perspective. This paper takes Nanchang city (including four counties and five districts) as the study area, on 2012 TM remote sensing image interpretation and extraction of land use data, and combined with land use data of 2005 and 2000, 2010 3 the use of GIS grid technique, divided into urban and rural population spatial distribution were simulated, based on this, by using the ecological footprint method, the study area was respectively in the city, county and grid for the evaluation of ecological carrying capacity evaluation unit, to explore the dynamic changes of the ecological carrying capacity in 2000-2012 years in the analysis the reason of the ecological carrying capacity change, and according to the current situation of ecological carrying capacity in study area is proposed to control the population size, strict land use change, suggestions and countermeasures are given: (1) through the interpretation of the results, Nanchang City area of land use types, farmland is the most widely distributed, the largest area, woodland, water area and construction land area is decreasing. From 2000 to 2012, cultivated land and woodland decreased, construction land increased, cultivated land and forest land converted to construction land was evident. (2) simulated distribution in population space, urban population spatial distribution presented by the circle within the circle of decreasing trend, the more close to the city center, the population more intensive, in the entire city of Nanchang (including 5) performance especially. And the spatial distribution of rural population and of land use in rural residential land and forest area are positively correlated, which correlated with the rural residents of the maximum, the correlation coefficient was 26.663, followed by arable land, the The value is 3.584, and the weakest correlation between forest land, the value of 0.403. in spatial distribution of population in the study area simulation results, simulation of population and population statistics is 24 thousand and 900, basically reached a total population of simulation is consistent with the requirements. (3) the per capita ecological footprint in 2012 in the study area is 1.295, bearing the per capita ecological force is 0.460, the ecological carrying capacity of supply and demand difference was -0.835, the ecological carrying capacity evaluation shows the ecological deficit in counties. To evaluate the ecological carrying capacity, Nanchang city (including 5) showed the ecological deficit, while Nanchang County, Xinjian County, Jinxian county and Anyi county showed in ecological sensitive. The grid in the study area for evaluation of ecological carrying capacity, ecological deficit, ecological sensitive area, ecological distribution and ecological surplus are flat area, in some degree and land use types with ecological carrying capacity, Mainly in: the ecological deficit and ecological sensitive area on the construction of land use types in the area, the ecological area corresponding to the flat farming area and unused area, ecological surplus area of forest area and corresponding waters. (4) from 2000 to 2012, the most obvious change of ecological carrying capacity is ecological the range of the deficit area, gradually extended from the small area in Nanchang in 2000, to a wide range of area ecological deficit in 2012, not only the ecological deficit of downtown smaller scope of the original "extended pie", showing the expansion of ecological deficit from Jinxian and the central city is Anyi. Showing the ecological deficit from the expansion, at the same time, the whole research region, extending the ecological deficit areas and ecological sensitive area with network spread.

【学位授予单位】：江西农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;X826

【参考文献】