江苏省农业现代化转型的驱动机制及其区域效应

发布时间：2018-02-22 00:39

本文关键词： 农业现代化转型要素创新四化协调政策引导江苏省　出处：《江苏师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“新常态”背景下,农业现代化是农业转型发展的必由之路,是统筹推进城乡一体化的必然要求,更是全面实现国家现代化的基础保障。江苏省是我国现代农业发展和农业现代化发展的先行区,科学揭示江苏农业转型发展特征,厘清推动农业转型发展驱动机理,系统分析转型驱动机制的区域效应,对推动江苏乃至全国农业现代化发展具有重要意义。本研究采用数理统计方法从农业生产效益、农业机械化、农业科技水平、农业生态化等方面对江苏省农业转型发展的时空特征分析发现,江苏农业发展水平逐步提升,地区差异显著,转型特征明显;并基于PSR模型框架,从压力(P)、状态(S)、响应(R)三方面构建农业现代化转型的理论框架,重点分析生产要素创新、四化协调互动及政策引导激励等驱动机制对农业现代化转型的促动作用;并运用熵值法、数据包络模型、耦合协同度模型、空间自相关等方法对转型驱动机制的区域效应进行探究,结论如下:(1)生产要素创新方面:2000年以来江苏省农业全要素生产率(TFP)的波动较为明显,呈现下降趋势,技术进步滞后是阻碍TFP提高的主要因素;农业TFP高(低)呈现显著的空间正相关,空间集聚程度逐渐加强,呈现出“北高南低”的空间分布特征,热点区、次热点区逐渐由苏南、苏中逐渐向苏北演进,苏北中部的盐城、淮安、宿迁等地成为主要的热点区;(2)“四化”协调发展方面:江苏省工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化均有不同程度提升,工业化、城镇化、信息化的地区差异有所减小,农业现代化差异逐渐增加;四化耦合度指数在高值波动,协同度指数稳步提升;耦合度的地区差异较小,呈现均衡分布态势,协同度呈现“南高北低”的分布特征;四化协调效率逐步提升,呈现“北高南低”的空间格局,且四化协调效率与协同度呈现空间负相关关系,并以此为依据,将江苏省划分成相应的地域类型;(3)政策支持引导方面:从国家和省域层面对近年来发布的农业政策文件进行归纳整理,从农业现代化地位、农业生产力布局优化、农业结构升级、新型经营主体等方面对江苏省农业转型的政策效应进行分析,并对今后江苏省农业政策制定需考虑的发展定位、经济效益、要素分配等方面进行探讨。最后,基于农业现代化转型驱动机制,针对性的提出了江苏省农业现代化发展的调控路径,以加快推动农业现代化转型健康发展。
[Abstract]:Under the background of "new normal", agricultural modernization is the only way for the transformation and development of agriculture, and it is the inevitable requirement to promote the integration of urban and rural areas as a whole. Jiangsu Province is the leading area for the development of modern agriculture and agricultural modernization in China. It scientifically reveals the characteristics of Jiangsu's agricultural transformation and development, and clarifies the driving mechanism of promoting agricultural transformation and development. It is of great significance to analyze the regional effects of the transformational driving mechanism for promoting the development of agricultural modernization in Jiangsu and even the whole country. This study adopts mathematical statistics to analyze the benefits of agricultural production, agricultural mechanization, and the level of agricultural science and technology. The analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural transformation and development in Jiangsu Province shows that the level of agricultural development in Jiangsu is gradually improved, the regional differences are significant, and the characteristics of transformation are obvious; and based on the framework of PSR model, The theoretical framework of agricultural modernization transformation is constructed from three aspects of pressure, state and response, and the driving mechanism of agricultural modernization transformation, such as innovation of production factors, coordination and interaction of the four modernizations and policy guidance and encouragement, is analyzed emphatically. Using entropy method, data envelope model, coupled synergy model, spatial autocorrelation and other methods to explore the regional effects of the transformational driving mechanism. Conclusion: (1) in terms of production factor innovation: since 2000, the fluctuation of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in Jiangsu Province is obvious, showing a downward trend, and the lag of technological progress is the main factor that hinders the improvement of TFP; The high (low) agricultural TFP showed significant spatial positive correlation, and the spatial agglomeration was gradually strengthened, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of "north high and south low". The hot spots and sub-hot spots gradually evolved from southern Jiangsu, central Jiangsu to northern Jiangsu. Yancheng, Huai'an, Suqian and other places in the central part of northern Jiangsu Province have become major hot spots in the area of "four modernizations": industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, and information technology in Jiangsu Province have all been upgraded to varying degrees, industrialization, urbanization, and urbanization. The regional difference of informatization decreases, the difference of agricultural modernization increases gradually; the index of coupling degree fluctuates in high value, and the synergy index increases steadily; the regional difference of coupling degree is small, showing a balanced distribution situation. The coordination efficiency of the four modernizations increased gradually and presented the spatial pattern of "the north high and the south low", and the coordination efficiency of the four modernizations showed a negative correlation with the synergy degree, and based on this, the coordination efficiency of the four modernizations increased gradually, and the coordination efficiency of the four modernizations showed a negative correlation with the coordination degree. To divide Jiangsu Province into corresponding regional types and guide the policy support: to summarize and organize the agricultural policy documents issued in recent years from the national and provincial levels, to optimize the distribution of agricultural productivity from the status of agricultural modernization, and to optimize the distribution of agricultural productivity. This paper analyzes the policy effect of agricultural transformation in Jiangsu Province from the aspects of agricultural structure upgrading, new management subject and so on, and discusses the development orientation, economic benefit and factor distribution of agricultural policy making in Jiangsu Province in the future. Based on the driving mechanism of agricultural modernization transformation, this paper puts forward the regulation and control path of agricultural modernization development in Jiangsu Province, in order to accelerate the healthy development of agricultural modernization transformation.
【学位授予单位】：江苏师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F327

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