典型喀斯特山区土地利用变化模拟

发布时间：2018-02-27 20:27

本文关键词： DLS模型 Markov模型喀斯特 Logistics 情景模拟　出处：《西安科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土地利用变化受到多种地形地貌等自然环境因子和人口密度、GDP等社会经济因子共同影响作用,针对土地利用变化进行研究为未来土地资源的合理配置提供了重要的决策依据,这也是研究全球环境变化和资源可持续发展利用战略的重要组成部分。土地利用变化研究主要集中在应用不同模型和尺度进行土地利用动态模拟、不同地域特征的土地利用变化模拟和特定情景约束下的土地利用变化模拟等。近年来,受经济快速发展和区域土地严重退化的影响,喀斯特山区土地利用变化剧烈,而针对特定的喀斯特山区的土地利用变化特征及空间分布进行分析研究,对未来该区域土地利用的合理的规划管理和土地石漠化现象的治理具有重要意义。因此,本文以1990年、2000年和2010年三期土地利用现状数据为基础,借助ArcGIS和SPSS软件,分析研究了喀斯特区域土地利用变化的空间分布特征和不同驱动因素对各土地利用类型变化的影响机制,后结合Markov模型和DLS模型基于自然增长、土地优化、经济发展和生态保护四种不同情景研究2030年该区域的土地利用空间分布。主要研究结论如下:(1)1990-2010年,喀斯特区域土地利用变化剧烈,不同类型土地的变化速率不同,其中林地和建设用地面积迅速增加,变化幅度较大。与前期相比,2000年以后土地利用变化剧烈,综合土地利用动态度为8.25,说明人类开发利用自然环境的速率增大,对土地利用的影响程度也逐渐增大。(2)应用Logistic回归分析对喀斯特区域土地利用变化影响较为显著地多种驱动力因子及其驱动作用机制进行定量的分析研究,结果显示:对耕地表现敏感的影响因素较多,人口越多的地方越适宜耕地的分布;降水对于林地分布的影响最大,石漠化严重的地方林地分布概率较小;对于草地分布较多的影响因素中,石漠化等级最为敏感,石漠化分布的区域草地的分布的概率较大;对于水域的影响只有与河流的距离变现最为敏感;对于建设用地分布的影响因素较多,其中,GDP、POP、岩性等影响因素最为敏感。(3)以研究区2000年的土地利用现状数据为基础,在自然因素和社会经济因素方面选取了坡度、海拔、与离河流的距离、与道路的距离、与铁路的距离、人口密度以及人均GDP等13个驱动因子,运用DLS模型对研究区2010年的土地利用变化分布格局进行模拟,模拟结果与2010年实际土地利用数据进行验证,结果显示:模拟结果Kappa指数达到0.89,说明DLS模型能够较好的模拟喀斯特区域的土地利用变化空间分布格局。(4)基于自然增长、土地优化、经济发展和生态保护4种情景的土地利用变化模拟发现,随着时间的变化,人类对土地资源的开发利用强度逐渐增大,且研究区未来的土地利用变化趋势更加明显,主要表现为:林地和建设用地面积不同幅度的增加,来源于耕地面积和草地面积的减小,其中,建设用地呈现持续增长的趋势归因于喀斯特区域经济的快速发展、人口的剧烈增加及其区域的城镇化进程明显加速等外在的外在作用;耕地减少变化趋势逐渐减弱,源于退耕还林和基本农田保护政策的推行;喀斯特区域的林地面积总体上是呈现逐渐增加的趋势,主要原因是受国家退耕还林工程及植树造林等大的政策的影响;草地面积逐渐较少,减少幅度降低;水域面积变化受自然环境的影响程度较大。(5)研究表明DLS模型对于喀斯特区域的土地利用变化研究具有较强的适用性,研究结论能够为相关部门以及以后的研究者利用DLS模型在类似研究区域下的研究提供一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Land use change by a variety of topography and other natural environmental factors and population density, GDP and other social and economic factors influence on the land use change research provides an important basis for the decision-making of rational allocation of land resources in the future, it is also an important component of the strategy of global environmental change and sustainable development of land resources. The changes are mainly concentrated in the application of different models and the scale of land use dynamic simulation, different geographical characteristics of the land use change simulation and the specific situation under the constraint of land use change simulation. In recent years, affected by the rapid economic development and land degradation, land use change and in the mountainous area of Karst, this paper studies land use change characteristics and spatial distribution of specific mountain in Karst, on the future of the regional land use Has an important significance in governance and rational planning management and land desertification phenomena. Therefore, in 1990, 2000 and 2010 three the status of land use data as the basis, using ArcGIS and SPSS software, analyzed the influence mechanism of Karst region land use change in the distribution of spatial characteristics and driving factors of different use types change to the the land, after the combination of Markov model and DLS model based on the natural growth, land optimization, economic development and ecological protection of four different scenarios on 2030 in the area of land use spatial distribution. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) 1990-2010 years, Karst regional land use change, the rate of change of different types of land, including land and the area of construction land increased rapidly, greatly changed. Compared with the previous, after 2000 the rapid change of land use, comprehensive land use dynamic degree is 8.2 5, human development and utilization rate of natural environment increases, also increases the influence degree of the land use. (2) the application of Logistic regression analysis, the effects of land use change in Karst region is significantly various driving forces and driving mechanism quantitatively shows: many factors impact on the performance of sensitive land population, more places more suitable land distribution; influence on the distribution of the maximum precipitation in woodland, rocky desertification woodland place low probability distribution of severe; the factors that affect the distribution of more grassland, rocky desertification is the most sensitive, the regional distribution of grassland distribution of rocky desertification in the greater probability for the effect of water; only the distance from the river. The most sensitive; land for the distribution of many factors, including construction, GDP, POP, etc. influence factors lithology is most sensitive (3) to study. The present land use data in 2000 as the foundation, in the aspects of natural factors and social economic factors selected slope, elevation, and the distance from river, and the distance from the road and railway distance, population density and per capita GDP 13 driving factors, using DLS model to simulate the research area of land use change in 2010 the distribution pattern of simulation results, and the actual data of land use in 2010 showed that the simulation results of Kappa index reached 0.89, which indicates that the DLS model can space of land use change in Karst region better simulate the distribution pattern. (4) land optimization based on natural growth, economic development and ecological protection of land use change in 4 scenarios the simulation shows that, with the change of time, the development and utilization of human strength of land resources increased gradually, and the study area of future land use change trend is more obvious, the main table Now: the forest land and construction land area increased with different extent, decrease from cultivated land and grassland in the rapid development of construction land showed an increasing trend due to the regional economy in Karst, the process of urbanization has increased dramatically and its regional population significantly accelerated the external role of external; the reduction of cultivated land change the trend gradually weakened, in returning farmland to forest and farmland protection policy; forest area overall Karst area is gradually increased, the main reason is the influence by the national policy of returning farmland to forest project and other large afforestation; grassland area gradually less, reduce the rate of change of water area was reduced; the influence degree of the natural environment. (5) study showed that the DLS model is applicable for the study of land use change in Karst region, the conclusion of the study is related to The Department and later researchers use the DLS model to provide some reference value and reference for the research under similar research areas.

【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2;P208

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