省域低碳农业发展水平评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 09:23

本文关键词： 低碳农业综合评价指标体系发展水平　出处：《福建农林大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：政府间气候变化专业委员会第四次评估报告表明,农业排放的CH4、N2O分别占人类活动总量的50%、60%,其温室气体排放量占全球的14%,是介于电热生产和尾气间的第二大温室气体排放源。我国在城乡二元体制下,三农问题突出,农业相对滞后,以“高投入、高生产、高消耗”为特征的传统农业,所带来的资源环境问题,直接影响农产品的安全和农业的可持续发展,威胁着人类的健康与发展。因此农业的低碳发展,既是农业现代化的必由之路,也是应对气候变化、建设两型社会、实现经济可持续发展的要求。而在推动农业低碳化的进程中,分析现阶段农业低碳化发展的水平,找出主要碳排放源,就是一个迫切需要解决的实践课题。本文基于低碳经济理论、现代农业等重要理论,利用熵值法、碳排放测算公式对我国30个省域低碳农业发展水平、碳排放量变化情况进行定性与定量分析研究。首先,根据碳排放系数及计算公式测算出2008-2012年农业碳排放总量、观测其总体变化情况及分布规律,找出农业生产活动过程中的主要碳排放源,分析农业经济发展与碳排放量之间的关系。由研究结果可知：2008-2012年碳排放总量从20389.75万t增至21985.15万t,其中碳排放总量、人均碳排量、碳生产力年均增长率为1.56%、2.55%、11.19%,其中在化肥、农药、农膜、柴油等农用化学品投入中化肥投入量、碳排放量均居各年份之首。其次,根据熵值法计算原理构建了低碳农业发展水平评价指标体系并测算综合得分,从农业生产要素投入、能源低碳化、社会投入和经济效益四个维度分析影响各省份低碳农业发展水平得分高低的潜在因素。由评价结果可知：我国低碳农业综合得分仅为0.29856分,总体发展水平欠佳,超过0.42573分的仅有山东、四川、河南、江苏,而京、津、沪仅为0.17380分、0.17072分、0.14067分。基于综合评价结果,结合碳生产力、经济效益、能耗利用水平以及30个省域所处的农业低碳化水平进行分类研究,结果表明,山东、河南、河北、黑龙江、江苏、广东、四川、广西、贵州、湖南等十个省份属于低碳农业发展“高水平-低排放”地区；陕西、辽宁、吉林、云南四个省份属于“低水平-低排放”地区。湖北、内蒙古、安徽、浙江、海南五个省份属于“高水平-高排放”地区；新疆、江西、山西、甘肃、福建、青海、宁夏、重庆、北京、天津、上海等十一个地区处于农业发展的“低水平—高排放”地区。最后提出发展低碳农业的对策建议：一是根据前文实证分析结果、各个省份所处的低碳农业发展阶段,立足各个区域特点、农业经济发展特色和各地原有的农业传统,因地制宜提出相应的解决对策；二是总结当前我国新型低碳农业发展模式,包括减源型、增汇固碳型、富碳农业、农业体验经济模式。
[Abstract]:The 4th assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change show that. Ch _ 4N _ 2O from agriculture accounts for 50% of the total amount of human activities, and its greenhouse gas emissions account for 14% of the world's total. It is the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions between electrothermal production and tail gas. Under the urban-rural dual system, the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers are prominent in China. The traditional agriculture, characterized by "high input, high production and high consumption", has brought about the problems of resources and environment, which directly affect the safety of agricultural products and the sustainable development of agriculture. Therefore, the low-carbon development of agriculture is not only the only way to modernize agriculture, but also to deal with climate change and build a two-type society. In the process of promoting low carbonization of agriculture, the level of development of low carbonization in agriculture at present is analyzed, and the main sources of carbon emissions are found out. Based on the theory of low carbon economy, modern agriculture and other important theories, this paper uses entropy method and carbon emission formula to measure the development level of low carbon agriculture in 30 provinces of China. First of all, according to the carbon emission coefficient and calculation formula, the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions from 2008 to 2012 is calculated, and its overall change and distribution law are observed. To find out the main carbon emission sources in the process of agricultural production, and to analyze the relationship between agricultural economic development and carbon emissions. From the research results, we can see that the total carbon emissions increased from two hundred and three million eight hundred and ninety-seven thousand and five hundred tons to two hundred and nineteen million eight hundred and fifty-one thousand and five hundred tons in 2008-2012, in which the total carbon emissions per capita and the total carbon emissions per capita increased from two hundred and three million eight hundred and ninety-seven thousand and five hundred tons to two hundred and nineteen million eight hundred and fifty-one thousand and five hundred tons. The average annual growth rate of carbon productivity is 1.56% 2.55% and 11.19%, in which chemical fertilizer input, pesticide, agricultural film, diesel and other agrochemical inputs, carbon emissions are the highest in all years. According to the calculation principle of entropy method, the evaluation index system of low carbon agriculture development level is constructed and the comprehensive score is calculated, which is based on the input of agricultural production factors and energy low carbonization. Four dimensions of social input and economic benefit are analyzed to analyze the potential factors that affect the development level of low-carbon agriculture in various provinces. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive score of low-carbon agriculture in China is only 0.29856, and the overall development level is poor. Only Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai scored 0.17380, 0.17072, 0.14067. Based on the comprehensive evaluation results, combined with carbon productivity and economic benefits, The energy use level and the low carbonization level of agriculture in 30 provinces were classified. The results showed that Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Ten provinces, including Hunan, belong to the "high-level-low-emission" region for low-carbon agricultural development, and four provinces, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Jilin, and Yunnan, belong to the "low-level-low-emission" region.Hubei, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Zhejiang, Five provinces in Hainan are "high-level-high-emission" areas; Xinjiang, Jiangxi, Shanxi, Gansu, Fujian, Qinghai, Ningxia, Chongqing, Beijing, Tianjin, Eleven regions, such as Shanghai, are in the "low-level-high-emission" region of agricultural development. Finally, the countermeasures and suggestions for developing low-carbon agriculture are put forward: first, according to the results of the previous empirical analysis, each province is in the stage of low-carbon agriculture development. Based on the characteristics of various regions, the characteristics of agricultural economic development and the original agricultural traditions in various localities, corresponding countermeasures are put forward according to local conditions; second, the current new low-carbon agricultural development models in China are summarized, including reducing sources, increasing sinks and sequestration of carbon. Carbon-rich agriculture, agriculture experience economic model.
【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F327

【参考文献】