江苏省农村劳动力转移与城乡收入差距互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 10:04

本文关键词： 农村劳动力转移城乡收入差距 VAR模型逐步回归法　出处：《南京财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农村劳动力转移是发展中国家现代化进程的必然现象。我省劳动力的大规模转移始于20世纪90年代初,这尤其体现在农村劳动力从农业部门向非农部门转移。伴随着经济快速发展,我省农村劳动力转移规模逐渐扩大,与此同时我省城乡之间、地区之间的贫富差距仍然在逐渐扩大,全省的基尼系数从2002年以后都超出了0.4的国际警戒水平线。农村劳动力转移与城乡收入差距之间是否存在联系,相关政策是否能够影响,值得人们的关注。根据新古典经济学理论和刘易斯的二元经济模型,农村劳动力转移可以促进农民收入水平的增加以及农业劳动生产率的提高,从而抑制城乡收入差距的拉大。我省的现实情况和理论出现了某种背离,因此本文选取江苏省作为研究对象,理论和实证分析了我省农村劳动力转移与城乡收入差距互动关系和影响我省城乡收入差距的原因。本文首先对国内外学者关于这方面的主要研究结果进行简单阐述。其次建立理论模型分析两者之间的关系,并且利用1986-2013年江苏省的统计数据进行实证分析。理论分析结果表明农村劳动力向非农业部门的转移能够提高农村居民收入,从而缩小城乡收入差距；同时城乡收入差距也能够吸引农村劳动力的转移,两者之间能够彼此影响。实证分析方面,格兰杰因果检验表明两者之间存在格兰杰因果关系。VAR模型结果表明农村劳动力转移和城乡收入差距构成的系统在长期偏离均衡时,两者能够自动调整到均衡状态。最后单向考虑影响我省收入差距的原因,以农村劳动力转移率为核心变量,逐个加入其他影响城乡收入差距的显著控制变量,利用加入虚拟变量的逐步回归法构建的最优多元回归模型结果表明农村劳动力转移率、经济开放程度、第一产业产值比重、农村劳动生产率和第一产业从业人员比重这五个因素对我省城乡收入差距存在显著影响。最后结合本文理论部分和实证部分的研究结果,给出相关政策建议：推动农村劳动力的合理转移；改变城乡经济结构,促进城镇一体化建设；转变对外贸易发展方式,促进产业结构升级。
[Abstract]:The transfer of rural labor is an inevitable phenomenon in the modernization of developing countries. The mass transfer of our province labor began in the early 1990s, especially in rural labor transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. With the rapid development of economy, the province's rural labor transfer scale expands gradually, at the same time, between urban and rural areas, the gap between rich and poor is still in the area the province is gradually expanding, the Gini coefficient since 2002 has exceeded the international warning level of 0.4. There is a connection between the transfer of rural labor and the income gap between urban and rural areas, the relevant policy is able to influence, worthy of attention. According to the two yuan economic model of new classical economics theory and Lewis, can promote the increase of farmers' income level and to improve the agricultural productivity of the rural labor transfer, thereby inhibiting the income gap between urban and rural areas pull . I, the reality and the theory has some deviation, so this paper selects Jiangsu Province as the research object, theoretical and empirical analysis of the cause of our province rural labor transfer and the income gap between rural and urban interaction and influence of income gap between urban and rural areas of our province. Based on the domestic and foreign scholars mainly study on this aspect of the results are simple in this paper. Secondly build theoretical model to analyze the relationship between the two, and according to the statistical data of 1986-2013 years in Jiangsu province empirical analysis. Theoretical analysis shows that the rural labor force to non-agricultural sector can increase the income of rural residents, thus narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas; the simultaneous transfer of income gap between urban and rural areas can also attract rural labor force between the two. Can influence each other. The empirical analysis, Grainger causality test shows that there is a causal relationship between the two.VAR Grainger The results show that the model of rural labor transfer and income gap between urban and rural areas in the system deviate from the long-term equilibrium, which can automatically adjust to equilibrium. Finally, considering the influence of one-way Heilongjiang Province income gap, the rural labor transfer rate as the core variables and the control variables significantly add other effects of income gap between urban and rural areas, the optimal regression model results based on the method of stepwise regression by adding dummy variables indicate that rate of rural labor transfer, the degree of openness, the primary industry, labor productivity in rural areas and the first industry from the five factors of industry personnel proportion on the income gap between urban and rural areas of our province have significant effects. Finally, combined with the research results and the empirical part of this theory, put forward the relevant policy recommendations: to promote the reasonable transfer of rural labor; change of urban and rural economic structure, promote the integration of urban construction Change the way of foreign trade development and promote the upgrading of the industrial structure.

【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.6;F323.8

【共引文献】