中国粮食自给率现状及其测算方法改进研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 13:26

本文关键词： 粮食自给率自有播种面积率 GM( ) 粮食安全　出处：《湖南科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：针对学者们对当前粮食自给率水平持有的不同见解以及现有测算方法的不足,从广义、狭义、分品种、粮油等统计视角对我国粮食自给率进行了全面的测算,并提出了一种改进自给率测算方法——粮食自有播种面积率。该改进方法不仅能从数量上,而且还能从进口品种结构上体现出粮食的自给差异性。经测算,2015年我国的广义粮食自给率为83.46%,狭义粮食自给率为93.63%,粮油自给率为71.18%,其对应的粮食自有播种面积率分别为75.7%、97.9%、72.5%。根据GM(1,1)灰色模型的预测结果,至2020年我国广义粮食自给率将下降至80.9%,广义自有播种面积率会下降为71.7%。该改进方法为研究我国粮食安全提出了一种更合理的自给测算方式。
[Abstract]:In view of the different opinions held by scholars on the current level of grain self-sufficiency and the insufficiency of the existing methods of calculation, the comprehensive calculation of the self-sufficiency rate of grain in China has been carried out from the broad sense, narrow sense, sub-variety, grain and oil statistical perspective. An improved self-sufficiency rate calculation method, that is, the self-seeding area rate of grain, is put forward. This improved method can not only be used in quantity, In 2015, the grain self-sufficiency rate of our country is 83.46, the narrow sense grain self-sufficiency rate is 93.63, the self-sufficiency rate of grain and oil is 71.18, and the grain self-sufficiency rate is 71.18, the grain self-sufficiency rate is 71.18, the grain self-sufficiency rate is 83.46% in 2015, the narrow sense grain self-sufficiency rate is 93.63 and the grain oil self-sufficiency rate is 71.18. According to the results of the grey model, By 2020, the general grain self-sufficiency rate of our country will be reduced to 80.9%, and the generalized self-seeding area rate will decrease to 71.7%. This improved method provides a more reasonable self-supporting calculation method for the study of China's grain security.
【作者单位】：湘潭大学商学院;湖南科技大学计算机学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZDO52);国家社会科学基金重点项目(11AZD006);国家社会科学基金青年项目(13CJY071)
【分类号】：F326.11

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