安徽省新农保的保障水平及其对消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 21:02

本文选题：新农保　切入点：养老金替代率　出处：《安徽财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：新农保制度的出台,不但完善了我国的农村社会养老保障体系,而且对于改善农村居民的生活水平和促进农村居民的消费具有重要意义。本文主要立足于安徽省,分别从政策层面和实证分析的角度研究安徽省新农保的保障水平及其对居民消费的影响,并结合分析结果提出了相关政策建议。文章首先,梳理对养老保险影响居民消费的文献理论,国内外学者对此所做的相关研究主要有养老保险促进居民消费、养老保险抑制居民消费和养老保险对消费并无显著影响的三种不同观点。文章进一步阐述了社会养老保险影响居民消费的理论,具体包括凯尔斯消费理论、生命周期假说理论、预防性储蓄理论和持久收入假说理论,并为后面的实证分析奠定了理论基础。其次,从养老金收支、参保情况、缴费状况和养老金保障水平四个方面详细分析了安徽省新农保的保障水平,得出新农保基本养老金收支不平衡、缴费档次较低、参保人数逐年增多、养老金保障水平低下的结论。再次,从消费水平和消费结构两个方面总结出安徽省农村居民的消费特点以便于更好的研究安徽省新农保对居民消费的影响,本文在生命周期理论模型的基础上引入新农保的基础养老金支出这一变量,对2012——2015安徽省16个地级市的面板数据做回归分析,基于个体固定效应的普通面板回归后,用PCSE对回归系数标准误进行了修正。研究得出,新农保与居民消费存在极其微弱的负相关关系。同时,利用扩展线性支出系统模型(Extend Linear Expenditure System,简称“ELES”),从安徽省农村消费结构的角度出发,选取安徽省2004——2014年的农村居民的消费数据对安徽省实施新农保政策前后消费结构的变化进行了实证分析。通过对比发现,新农保实施后安徽省农村居民的消费结构发生了一些变化,主要表现在:教育、文化娱乐和医疗保健支出的需求收入弹性发生较大改变,而在衣着和食品烟酒上的需求收入弹性无明显变化;食品烟酒、生活用品和医疗保健支出结构发生较大改变;居民边际消费倾向较低,同样得消费支出水平并无明显改善,进一步证实了新农保对消费影响小的研究。这说明新农保政策的实施对安徽省农村居民的消费结构有影响,但是对居民的消费支出水平没有直接影响。文章在理论分析和实证分析的前提下,结合我国实际情况,提出了完善新农保政策和促进居民消费的相关建议。建议通过提高养基金的统筹层次、提高养老金的替代率水平和提高新农保的保障水平来不断的完善新农保制度;通过实现基金的保值增值、完善新农保的各项机制和提高新农保的最低缴费水平来加强政府的管理责任,提升农民对政策的信心;通过提高农民工的竞争力、推动农村土地流转、提高农民的个人素养和技术水平以及推进农产业的战略结构调整增加农产业收入来提高农民的缴费能力。
[Abstract]:The introduction of the new rural insurance system not only improves the rural social old-age security system, but also plays an important role in improving the living standards of rural residents and promoting the consumption of rural residents. From the perspective of policy and empirical analysis, this paper studies the security level of new rural insurance in Anhui Province and its impact on residents' consumption, and puts forward some relevant policy recommendations combined with the results of the analysis. Combing the literature theory on the influence of endowment insurance on residents' consumption, domestic and foreign scholars have done related research on this mainly to promote residents' consumption by endowment insurance. There are three different viewpoints that the endowment insurance inhibits the residents' consumption and the pension insurance has no significant influence on the consumption. The article further expounds the theory of the social endowment insurance's influence on the residents' consumption, including the Kelles consumption theory, the life cycle hypothesis theory, the life cycle hypothesis theory, and the life cycle hypothesis theory. The precautionary savings theory and the theory of durable income hypothesis lay a theoretical foundation for the subsequent empirical analysis. Secondly, from the perspective of pension income and expenditure, participation in insurance, This paper analyzes the security level of the new rural insurance in Anhui Province in detail from four aspects: the status of payment and the level of pension guarantee. It is concluded that the basic pension of the new rural insurance is unbalanced, the level of payment is low, and the number of people participating in the insurance increases year by year. Third, from the consumption level and consumption structure of rural residents in Anhui Province summed up the characteristics of consumption in order to facilitate a better study of the impact of new rural insurance in Anhui Province on the consumption of residents. Based on the life cycle theory model, this paper introduces the basic pension expenditure of the new rural insurance, and makes regression analysis on the panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province from 2012-2015. After the ordinary panel regression based on individual fixed effect, The standard error of regression coefficient is corrected by PCSE. It is concluded that there is a very weak negative correlation between new rural insurance and resident consumption. Based on the extended linear Linear Expenditure system ("ELES"), from the perspective of the rural consumption structure of Anhui Province, this paper makes use of the extended Linear Expenditure system. The consumption data of rural residents in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2014 were selected to analyze the changes of consumption structure before and after the implementation of the new rural insurance policy in Anhui Province. Some changes have taken place in the consumption structure of rural residents in Anhui Province since the implementation of the New Rural Insurance system, which is mainly reflected in the great changes in the elasticity of income demand for education, cultural entertainment and health care expenditure. However, the elasticity of demand income in clothing, food, tobacco and wine has not changed significantly; the structure of food, alcohol, tobacco, daily necessities and medical care expenditure has changed greatly; the marginal propensity of consumption of residents is lower, and the level of consumption expenditure has not improved significantly. It further proves that the new rural insurance has a small impact on consumption, which shows that the implementation of the new rural insurance policy has an impact on the consumption structure of rural residents in Anhui Province. However, there is no direct impact on the level of consumption expenditure of residents. Under the premise of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the article combines with the actual situation of our country. Some suggestions are put forward to improve the new rural insurance policy and promote the residents' consumption. It is suggested that the new rural insurance system should be improved continuously by raising the overall planning level of the raising fund, raising the level of the replacement rate of pension and raising the level of the new rural insurance. By realizing the maintenance and increment of the fund, perfecting the mechanism of the new rural insurance and raising the minimum payment level of the new rural insurance, to strengthen the management responsibility of the government, to enhance the farmers' confidence in the policy, and to enhance the competitiveness of the migrant workers. To promote rural land circulation, improve farmers' personal literacy and technical level, and promote the strategic structure adjustment of agricultural industry to increase agricultural industry income to improve farmers' ability to pay fees.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.89;F842.67

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