江苏省粮食产量波动研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 22:27

本文选题：江苏省　切入点：粮食产量波动　出处：《中共江苏省委党校》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：江苏省是我国粮食主产省份之一,是南方最大的粳稻生产省份,又是全国优质弱筋小麦生产优势区,江苏省粮食产量的增产稳产不仅对地区而且对全国都具有重要意义。本文以江苏省为研究对象,运用经验模态分解方法(EMD)对其1978-2015年的粮食产量数据进行分解,得到不同时间尺度的波动项以及趋势项。通过对波动项的分析较为全面的把握江苏省粮食产量波动的特征,并进一步考察不同时间尺度波动的影响因素,从而为稳定江苏省粮食生产提供政策建议。本文主要得出以下结论:(1)考察期间,江苏省粮食产量波动大致可分为3个阶段,每个阶段影响产量波动的主导因素并不相同。(2)考虑江苏省粮食产量波动的结构特征,发现无论是稻谷、小麦产量的波动还是苏南、苏中、苏北三大地区各自粮食产量的波动,都可以大致划分为3个阶段,并且与全省粮食产量波动阶段划分情况基本一致。作物方面,如果保持目前稻谷的趋势产量占比的话,稻谷产量变异率每提高1个百分点,粮食总产变异率将提高大约0.6个百分点;小麦产量变异率每提高1个百分点,粮食总产变异率将提高大约0.3个百分点。地区方面,苏北地区对全省粮食产量波动的影响是最大的,若保持当前苏北地区趋势产量占比的话,其粮食产量变异率每提高一个百分点,则全省粮食产量变异率将提高大约0.6个百分点。(3)江苏省粮食产量波动可以分为准3年和准12.6年周期波动,并以准12.6年周期波动为主。粮食单产波动分为准3年、6年和15年周期波动,并以准15年周期波动为主;粮食播种面积波动分为准4年和准8年周期波动,并以准8年周期波动为主。粮食单产准3年周期波动主要由气象灾害所导致,而准15年周期波动受到气象灾害和经居民消费价格指数调整后的粮食收购价(2001年以后为农产品生产价格)的共同影响,但价格的影响要滞后2年。播种面积准8年周期波动同样受到经居民消费价格指数调整后的粮食收购价格的影响,但其影响要滞后3年。此外,无论是全省粮食单产波动还是播种面积波动都具有明显的政策含义,主要表现为几个波谷,即1978年、1992年和2003年,都与我国农业政策的重大调整相对应。本文最后根据分析结论提出了相应的政策建议:(1)应重视小麦产量波动对江苏省粮食产量波动的影响,并积极采取措施稳定其生产,如研发高产高抗性的小麦品种、加大农业基础设施建设、增强抗灾能力、促进土地流转减少耕地抛荒等。(2)应加大对苏北地区农业发展的财政支持力度,尤其是要重点支持能够增强抗灾能力的基础设施建设和科研项目,改良中低产田,提高有效灌溉率等。(3)稳定的价格预期以及稳定的政策环境对于稳定粮食生产、减弱波动具有重要意义。尤其是粮食价格对无论是单产还是播种面积都具有一定程度的滞后影响的情况下,更要注意价格政策的长期影响。
[Abstract]:Jiangsu Province is one of the major grain production provinces in China, is the largest japonica rice production province in the south, and is also the dominant region for the production of high-quality and weak gluten wheat in the country. The increase and stable yield of grain production in Jiangsu Province is of great significance not only to the region but also to the whole country. In this paper, the empirical mode decomposition method is used to decompose the grain yield data from 1978 to 2015 in Jiangsu Province. The fluctuation items and trend terms of different time scales are obtained. Through the analysis of the fluctuation items, the characteristics of grain yield fluctuation in Jiangsu Province are comprehensively grasped, and the influencing factors of the fluctuation in different time scales are further investigated. This paper draws the following conclusions: during the inspection period, the fluctuation of grain production in Jiangsu Province can be roughly divided into three stages. Considering the structural characteristics of grain yield fluctuation in Jiangsu Province, it is found that the fluctuation of rice, wheat yield and grain yield in the three regions of southern Jiangsu, central Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu are different in each stage. All of them can be roughly divided into three stages, and are basically consistent with the division of grain yield fluctuation stage in the whole province. In terms of crops, if the current trend of rice yield is maintained, the yield variation rate of rice increases by 1 percentage point. The variation rate of total grain yield will increase by about 0.6 percentage points, and the variation rate of total grain yield will increase by about 0.3 percentage points if the variation rate of wheat yield increases by 1 percentage point. Northern Jiangsu has the greatest impact on the fluctuation of grain production in the province. If the current trend of grain production in northern Jiangsu is maintained, the variation rate of grain yield will increase by one percentage point. The variation rate of grain yield in Jiangsu Province will increase by about 0.6 percentage points.) the fluctuation of grain yield in Jiangsu Province can be divided into quasi-3 years and quasi-12.6 years cycle fluctuations. The fluctuation of grain yield was divided into 3 years, 6 years and 15 years, and the fluctuation of grain sown area was divided into 4 years and 8 years, the fluctuation of grain yield was divided into 3 years, 6 years and 15 years, and the fluctuation of grain sown area was divided into 4 years and 8 years. The quasi 8-year periodic fluctuation is the main factor, and the quasi-3-year periodic fluctuation of grain yield is mainly caused by meteorological disasters. The quasi-15-year cycle fluctuations are affected by both meteorological disasters and grain purchase prices adjusted by the consumer price index of residents (the prices of agricultural products produced after 2001). But the effect of price is two years behind. The quasi-8-year periodic fluctuation of sown area is also affected by the price of grain purchase adjusted by the consumer price index, but the effect is delayed by three years. Both the fluctuation of grain yield and the fluctuation of sowing area have obvious policy implications, which are mainly manifested in several troughs, that is, 1978, 1992 and 2003. Finally, according to the conclusion of the analysis, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestion: 1) We should pay attention to the influence of wheat yield fluctuation on grain yield fluctuation in Jiangsu Province, and take active measures to stabilize its production. For example, to develop wheat varieties with high yield and high resistance, to increase the construction of agricultural infrastructure, to enhance the ability to resist disasters, to promote land circulation and reduce the wastage of cultivated land, etc.) to increase the financial support for agricultural development in northern Jiangsu. In particular, emphasis should be placed on supporting infrastructure construction and scientific research projects that can enhance resilience to disasters, improving medium-to-low yield fields, increasing effective irrigation rates, etc.) stable price expectations and a stable policy environment are necessary to stabilize food production. It is important to weaken the fluctuation, especially if the grain price has a lag effect on both the yield and the sowing area, we should pay more attention to the long-term influence of price policy.
【学位授予单位】：中共江苏省委党校
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11

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