新常态下扎赉特旗土地利用结构与产业结构相互关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 09:19

本文选题：土地利用结构　切入点：产业结构　出处：《内蒙古师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,经济发展对土地资源的需求和土地资源的稀缺性之间的矛盾,已经成为制约区域经济发展的主要因素。调整产业结构转型升级,剖析和解决影响产业发展的制约因素,优化土地资源配置,使区域产业发展和土地利用相互协调已经成为经济持续健康发展的重要战略。因此,揭示土地利用结构变化和产业结构变化的内在规律,合理的分配有限的土地资源,使土地资源更好的满足复杂多变的区域发展需要,对于解决当前新常态下区域发展中遇到的瓶颈和问题,具有很强的现实意义。本文定性分析土地利用结构与产业结构相互关系,并以扎赉特旗为研究区,分析2005-2015年扎赉特旗土地利用状况和产业发展状况,并根据研究区土地利用状况及产业发展状况,尝试建立基于产业结构的土地利用分类体系,深入分析了扎赉特旗产业用地结构的变化过程。在定性分析土地利用结构和产业结构相互关系的基础上,运用格兰杰因果关系检验法和多远回归模型定量分析三产业产值变化与土地利用结构变化的互相影响机理,并利用灰色预测模型对扎赉特旗2016-2020年的三产业进行预测分析。通过以上分析,主要结论如下:(1)研究时段内,扎赉特旗产业结构不断趋于合理化,但矛盾问题依然凸显。第一产业是扎赉特旗主导产业,资源要素投入高,粗放式发展,产业带动效应不明显。第二产业还未形成规模,工业发展基础薄弱;第三产业发展严重滞后,后劲不足。当前,产业结构格局为“123”。(2)产业用地比重悬殊。根据建立的产业用地分类体系,扎赉特旗第一产业用地比重高,占全旗土地总面积的88%左右。而第二产业用地和第三产业用地占极少部分,不足全旗土地面积的3%,第二第三产业发展缓慢。后备产业用地资源丰富,占土地总面积近9%。(3)通过格兰杰因果关系检验得出,扎赉特旗土地利用结构与产业结构密切相关。两者之间存在双向因果关系。但产业变化快于土地用地结构变化,两者偏差系数很大。扎赉特旗土地利用结构与产业结构矛盾凸显。根据回归分析得出,第二产业与土地利用变化的相关性最大。(4)最后预测2016-2020年三次产业产值。扎赉特旗未来几年还是以第一产业为主导,第二三产业为辅的发展格局。预测数据显示,2017年扎赉特旗第三产业产值超过第二产业产值,产业结构呈“132”结构模式。并提出未来发展应立足农牧业资源优势做强一产、突出农畜产品加工做大二产及以旅游文化产业为龙头做好三产。(5)政策建议。扎赉特旗未来几年的发展中,结合自然资源禀赋,注重提高发展的质量和效益,注重产业结构和土地利用的协调发展,从主要依靠农牧业经济带动逐步向一二三产业深度融合发展转变。应明确不同区域产业发展的比较优势与重点培育产业,转变发展方式,实现土地集约节约利用、加快完善土地市场机制、积极探索实践“三规合一”,实现全面、协调发展及利用与保护相结合,增强土地生态功能。
[Abstract]:At present, the contradiction between the scarcity of economic development the demand for land resources and land resources, has become a major factor restricting the development of regional economy. The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure adjustment, analyzing and solving the constraints affecting the development of the industry, optimize the allocation of land resources, the regional industrial development and land use coordination has become an important strategy for healthy economic development. Therefore, to reveal the regularity of change of land use structure and industrial structure changes, a reasonable allocation of the limited land resources, regional development needs the land resources to better meet the needs of the complex, to solve the bottleneck problems and the current regional development under the new normal, has a strong practical significance in this paper. The qualitative analysis of the relationship between land use structure and industrial structure, and taking Zhalaiteqi as the study area, analysis of 2005-2015 years with special flag land reserve Utilization and industrial development, and according to the status and development of land use in the study area, try to establish the industrial structure of land use classification system based on the in-depth analysis of Zhalaiteqi industrial land use changes in the structure of the process. In the qualitative analysis of the relationship between land use structure and industrial structure, using the output of the three industry changes and mechanism the change of land use structure interaction analysis of Grainger causality test and how far a quantitative regression model and the three industry, 2016-2020 years of Zhalaiteqi forecast analysis using grey prediction model. Through the above analysis, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) during the study period, Zhalaiteqi industrial structure is more reasonable, but the contradictions are still prominent the first industry is Zhalaiteqi leading industry, resource investment is high, extensive development, industry driven effect is not obvious. The two industry has not formed the scale, the industrial development foundation is weak; the development of the third industry is seriously lagging behind, lack of stamina. At present, the industrial structure is "123". (2) industrial land proportion disparity. According to the established industrial land classification system, the first industry Zhalaiteqi land proportion high, accounting for Quanqi total land area 88% about second. And the industrial land and industrial land accounted for third and few of its lack of land area of 3%, second and third industry developed slowly. The reserve of industrial land rich in resources, the total land area of nearly 9%. (3) by Grainger causality test showed that Zhalaiteqi land use structure and industrial structure are closely related. A two-way causal relationship between the two. But the industry changes quickly in the land use structure change, the deviation coefficient is large. Prominent structure and industrial structure contradiction of land use Zhalaiteqi. According to the regression analysis to get the article. The two industry and land use change (4). The correlation between the last 2016-2020 years to predict the output value of the three industries. Zhalaiteqi over the next few years to the first industry as the leading development pattern, the two or three industry subsidiary. The forecast data show that in 2017 the Zhalaiteqi third industrial output value over second of industrial output value, industrial structure is "132" mode. And put forward the future development should be based on the advantages of resources of agriculture and animal husbandry industry a stronger production, outstanding agricultural and livestock products processing stage and the bigger cultural tourism industry as the leading to three. (5) Zhalaiteqi policy recommendations. The development of the next few years, according to natural resources, improve the quality and efficiency of development, focusing on the coordination the development of industrial structure and land use, leading to the 123 industry gradually shift from relying mainly on the depth of integration and development of agriculture and animal husbandry economy. Comparative advantage should clarify the different regional industrial development And focus on cultivating industry, transforming development mode, realizing intensive and economical utilization of land, accelerating the improvement of land market mechanism, and actively exploring the practice of "three rules in one", so as to achieve comprehensive and coordinated development, and combine land use and protection to enhance land ecological function.

【学位授予单位】：内蒙古师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3;F301.24

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