保护性耕作农户Agent行为模拟

发布时间：2018-03-11 10:24

本文选题：保护性耕作　切入点：农户行为规则　出处：《昆明理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会对环保问题的重视,耕地保护和耕地质量的可持续稳定引起了广泛关注。耕地保护问题与粮食安全和生态环境息息相关,保护性耕作模式的推广,可以有效地解决耕作层破坏、耕地质量下降等问题。保护性耕作模式可以有效地改善局部区域的生态环境,并且提高作物产量,节约农业生产的投入成本。农户是耕作活动的直接行为者,农户的行为模式直接决定了保护性耕作模式的推进与落实效果。本文将耕地的保护性耕作宏观问题的研究微观化,从微观农户的保护性耕作行为切入,结合耕地复杂系统理论、耕地保护理论、农户行为理论、保护性耕作理论等,运用Agent行为模拟建模的方法,采用“自下而上”的建模体系,通过农户异质性的属性信息对其行为结果的影响关系,利用蒙特卡洛算法和回归分析提炼出研究区域的农户保护性耕作行为规则。找出了农户内部影响因素对农户保护性耕作行为的影响关系。本研究的意义在于可以通过农户的内部属性信息,来提前预测农户的保护性耕作行为,并且可以针对农户内部属性影响因子,制定具有针对性的保护性耕作行为激励政策。可以为保护性耕作行为的大范围推广,提供政策制定的指导和借鉴作用。本文的创新在于,之前的保护性耕作研究多数停留在定性分析的层面,而运用定量分析方法的保护性耕作研究成果,要利用大样本调查数据,调查过程繁琐。而本文的研究是在定量分析的基础上运用模拟的方法,有效地缩小了实地调查范围,简化了调查工作的复杂程度。
[Abstract]:With the attention of the society to the problem of environmental protection, the protection of cultivated land and the sustainable stability of cultivated land quality have aroused widespread concern. The protection of cultivated land is closely related to food security and ecological environment. Conservation tillage model can effectively improve the ecological environment of local areas and increase crop yield. The farmers are the direct actors of the farming activities, and the behavior pattern of the farmers directly determines the promotion and implementation effect of the conservation tillage model. This paper studies the macroscopic problem of the cultivated land conservation tillage microscopically. From the perspective of the conservation tillage behavior of micro-farmers, combining the theory of complex system of cultivated land, the theory of cultivated land protection, the theory of farmer's behavior, the theory of conservation tillage, and using the method of Agent behavior simulation modeling, we adopt the "bottom-up" modeling system. Through the influence of the attribute information of the farmer's heterogeneity on the behavior result, By using Monte Carlo algorithm and regression analysis, the rules of conservation farming behavior of farmers in the study area were extracted. The relationship between the influencing factors of farmers and conservation farming behavior of farmers was found out. The significance of this study is that. Through the farmers' internal attribute information, In order to predict the conservation tillage behavior of farmers in advance, and according to the factors affecting the internal attributes of farmers, we can formulate targeted incentive policies of conservation tillage behavior, which can be used to promote conservation farming behavior on a large scale. The innovation of this paper is that most of the previous studies on conservation tillage remain at the level of qualitative analysis, and the research results of conservation tillage based on quantitative analysis should use large sample survey data. The research in this paper is based on the quantitative analysis and the method of simulation, which effectively reduces the scope of the field investigation and simplifies the complexity of the investigation work.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.211

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