柑橘产量风险分区与保险费率厘定——基于湘南地区的案例分析

发布时间：2018-03-12 11:35

  本文选题：柑橘产量保险　切入点：风险分区　出处：《湖南农业大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：遵循风险地域差异性及区内相似性原则,根据县(市)柑橘产量风险及保险历史数据,以行政区界相对完整为前提采用因子分析方法进行风险分区,然后运用正态分布、Gamma分布和Weibull分布参数模型拟合湘南地区20个县市的柑橘单产保险费率,并对其进行最终修正。研究表明:柑橘产量风险的县(市)差异明显,不适于采取统一保险费率政策;柑橘产量保险纯费率基本符合"高风险区域较高风险区域较低风险区域低风险区域"风险排序,表明差别性费率能较好反映区域承灾风险,与保险责任匹配;实际保险费率不仅与风险相关,还涉及安全系数、营业费及预定节余率,对于费率估测值与风险等级明显不符地区应当执行必要的费率调整。
[Abstract]:In accordance with the principle of risk regional difference and regional similarity, according to the risk of citrus yield and the historical data of insurance in county (city), the risk zoning is based on the relative integrity of the borderline of the administrative region. Then the normal distribution Gamma distribution and Weibull distribution parameter model are used to fit the premium rate of citrus yield per unit yield in 20 counties and cities in southern Hunan, and the final correction is carried out. The results show that the county (city) difference of citrus yield risk is obvious. It is not suitable to adopt uniform insurance rate policy, and the pure rate of citrus yield insurance basically accords with the risk ranking of "low risk area in higher risk area", which indicates that the differential rate rate can better reflect the regional disaster risk. The actual insurance rate is not only related to risk, but also involves safety factor, operating expenses and predetermined rate of savings. The necessary rate adjustment should be carried out in areas where the estimated value of the rate is obviously inconsistent with the risk grade.
【作者单位】： 湖南农业大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F326.13;F842.66

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