郑州市区土地利用空间格局变化分析与模拟

发布时间：2018-03-17 03:29

本文选题：土地利用　切入点：空间格局模拟　出处：《郑州大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)严重影响着全球环境质量、陆地生态系统生产力和区域水循环过程,分析并模拟区域土地利用空间格局变化成为LUCC研究的热点问题。郑州地处中原腹地,是我国重要的交通运输枢纽,90年代以来,城镇用地在快速扩张的过程中占用了大量的耕地,土地利用结构发生重大变化,人地矛盾日益突出。本文以分析并模拟郑州市区土地利用空间格局变化为目标,以RS和GIS为技术支持,分析了1988 2014年郑州市区土地利用空间格局变化特征。1988 2014年,研究区土地利用空间格局发生较大变化,同时体现在各地类数量变化和景观格局变化两方面。耕地失去了原本的优势地位,面积减少量近2/3;建设用地(包括城乡居民点和工矿用地、交通运输用地)向四周迅速扩张,面积增长量超过原面积的1.5倍,各地类分布结构相对原始状态稍显均衡;2001 2014年各地类数量变化程度相对于1988 2001年更为剧烈。近30年来,郑州市区经济实现快速增长,产业结构也相应发生了变化,本文利用Markov模型和主成分分析方法,定量描述了社会经济因素与区域土地利用变化之间具有的显著性相关关系。采用Binary Logistic回归模型计算各土地利用类型的空间分布概率,各模型ROC值均处于0.75以上;运用CLUE-S模型,模拟2014年郑州市区土地利用空间格局,正确率达到80%,Kappa指数为0.767,表明了CLUE-S模型对该研究区土地利用空间格局模拟的可行性;运用CLUE-S模型模拟2020年郑州市区土地利用空间格局,并探讨2014 2020年的预期变化状况,最终结果表明:模拟得到的2020年郑州市区土地利用空间格局中,耕地仅占19.19%,建设用地比重达到72.74%;2020年,各土地利用类型斑块水平指数相对于2014年基本未发生变化,然而,各景观水平指数均表现出下降趋势。在快速的城市化进程中,人为因素对土地利用空间格局的影响表现得越发严重。
[Abstract]:Land use / cover change (LUCC) has a serious impact on global environmental quality, terrestrial ecosystem productivity and regional water cycle process. Analysis and simulation of regional land use spatial pattern change has become a hot issue in LUCC research. Zhengzhou is located in the hinterland of Central Plains, Zhengzhou is located in the hinterland of Central Plains, Zhengzhou is located in the hinterland of Central Plains. Is an important transportation hub in China since the 1990s, the rapid expansion of urban land in the process of occupying a large number of arable land, land use structure has undergone major changes. The contradiction between man and land is becoming more and more prominent. This paper aims at analyzing and simulating the change of spatial pattern of land use in Zhengzhou urban area, taking RS and GIS as technical support, and analyzes the characteristics of spatial pattern change of land use in Zhengzhou from 2014 to 2014. The spatial pattern of land use in the study area has changed greatly, which is reflected in the changes in the number of categories and in the landscape pattern. The cultivated land has lost its original dominant position. The area has been reduced by nearly two thirds; construction land (including urban and rural settlements, industrial and mining land, transportation land) is rapidly expanding around, with an area growth of more than 1.5 times the original area. The distribution structure of each area shows a little equilibrium relative to the original state. In 2014, the quantity of each region changed more sharply than that of 2001 in 1988.In the past 30 years, the economy of Zhengzhou urban area has been growing rapidly, and the industrial structure has changed accordingly. In this paper, Markov model and principal component analysis are used to quantitatively describe the significant correlation between social and economic factors and regional land use change. Binary Logistic regression model is used to calculate the spatial distribution probability of each land use type. The ROC value of each model is above 0. 75, the CLUE-S model is used to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in Zhengzhou city in 2014, and the correct rate is 0. 767, which indicates the feasibility of CLUE-S model to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in this research area. CLUE-S model is used to simulate the spatial pattern of urban land use in Zhengzhou on 2020, and to discuss the expected change of land use in Zhengzhou from 2020 to 2020. The final results show that the spatial pattern of land use in Zhengzhou on 2020 was obtained by the simulation. In 2020, the patch level index of each land use type basically did not change compared with 2014, however, each landscape level index showed a downward trend. The influence of human factors on land use spatial pattern is more and more serious.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

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