中国对东盟蔬菜出口增长的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-18 15:07

本文选题：中国-东盟自由贸易区　切入点：蔬菜贸易　出处：《华中农业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立,推动了双方的友好经济合作,东盟成为了中国最大的蔬菜贸易出口市场之一。1998-2013年,中国对东盟的蔬菜贸易不断增加,在东盟的市场份额也不断扩大,且超过了传统蔬菜出口大国美国、荷兰和澳大利亚,位居东盟蔬菜出口市场首位,这对中国蔬菜出口贸易的发展既是发展也是挑战。因此,研究中国对东盟蔬菜出口增长模式及影响因素具有重要的意义。本文旨在分析中国对东盟蔬菜出口情况,并研究中国与东盟合作以来,蔬菜出口的增长模式,进而探讨中国对东盟蔬菜出口的国际竞争力强弱与比较优势,并试图找出与其他蔬菜出口大国相比,中国的竞争优势和竞争劣势。最后根据分析,提出进一步提高中国对东盟蔬菜出口的政策和建议。本文首先分析了中国蔬菜出口概况,并研究了中国与东盟合作以来,中国对东盟蔬菜出口规模和出口结构的变化,运用核密度分析法,简单描绘和阐述了1998年和2013年蔬菜出口增长情况。其次,运用三元边际模型将中国对东盟蔬菜出口的增长分解为广度、数量和价格,并与其他蔬菜出口国家相对比,总结出中国对东盟蔬菜出口独有的增长模式。然后运用恒定市场份额模型(CMS)分析这一增长模式的主要影响因素——出口竞争力,并由显性比较优势指数计算中国不同蔬菜品种的竞争力。基于以上对竞争力的分析,找出中国蔬菜出口的竞争优势和竞争劣势。最后根据以上实证分析的结果提出政策建议。通过上述系统研究,得出以下基本结论:第一,中国与东盟友好合作以来,中国对东盟蔬菜出口不断增加,至2013年,中国占东盟蔬菜市场的70%以上,核密度分析显示,这一增长源于出口量的增长;第二,通过三元边际模型分析得出,中国对东盟蔬菜出口增长模式为“数量增长为主,价格增长为辅”,且这一增长模式不具有广泛性,对不同类型的蔬菜出口,同样适用。鲜冷冻蔬菜和干蔬菜大量出口,奠定中国“出口大国”的基础,调理加工蔬菜出口量逐渐增加,弥补了深加工蔬菜市场的空缺;第三,通过恒定市场份额模型(CMS)研究出,促进这一增长模式的因素在于中国不断增强的蔬菜出口竞争力,且鲜冷冻蔬菜的竞争力对出口增长的贡献逐渐减弱,而干蔬菜和调理加工蔬菜竞争力对出口增长贡献不断提高,这说明中国在向多元化蔬菜品种出口转变,且逐渐从初级加工蔬菜向深加工蔬菜出口模式延伸;第四,中国对东盟的出口竞争力优势在于自然资源、地理位置、生产成本和中国-东盟自由贸易区的区域经济合作,而竞争劣势在于,与发展中国家相比劳动力成本高,与发达国家相比,深加工技术水平落后,这两点导致其与竞争对手相比,蔬菜出口价格高,造成市场不稳定。根据研究结论,我国应做到以下几点:首先,进一步扩大对东盟出口规模,调整出口结构;其次,提高蔬菜出口的国际竞争力,提高劳动生产率,改进农业科技水平,加大机械化蔬菜生产和出口标准化;然后,政府要提供有利的蔬菜生产和出口条件,从粗放型生产经营向集约型生产经营转变;最后,充分利用好中国-东盟自由贸易区,营造更好的外部环境。
[Abstract]:The establishment of China ASEAN Free Trade Area, to promote friendly bilateral economic cooperation, ASEAN has become one of the largest vegetable export trade China market.1998-2013, China to ASEAN vegetable trade increasing, expanding its market share in ASEAN, and more than a traditional American vegetable exporting countries, Holland and Australia, among the ASEAN vegetable export market in the first, the China vegetables export trade development is the development and challenges. Therefore, the research China has important significance to the ASEAN factors vegetables export growth mode and effect. This paper aims at China exports to ASEAN vegetables, the analysis and Research on Chinese cooperation with ASEAN since the vegetable export growth model, then discuss Chinese vegetable export to ASEAN International Competitiveness and comparative advantage, and try to find out compared with other vegetable exporting countries, China's competition The advantages and disadvantages. Finally, according to the analysis, put forward to further improve the China policies and suggestions on ASEAN vegetable export. This paper firstly analyzes the general situation of China vegetable export, and study the Chinese cooperation with ASEAN since Chinese to change ASEAN vegetable export scale and export structure, using kernel density analysis method, and expounds the simple description in 1998 and 2013 growth in exports of vegetables. Secondly, the use of three yuan will be Chinese marginal model to ASEAN vegetable export growth into the scope, quantity and price, and compared with other vegetable export countries, summed up the Chinese of ASEAN vegetable export growth model. Then the unique uses constant market share model (CMS) analysis of the main influence this pattern of growth factors, export competitiveness, and the dominant comparative advantage index calculation of different varieties of vegetables China competitiveness. On the above competitiveness based on The analysis, find out China vegetable export competitive advantages and disadvantages. Finally, according to the results of the above empirical analysis and policy recommendations. Through the above-mentioned study, draws the following conclusions: first, since the Chinese friendly cooperation with ASEAN, ASEAN Chinese of vegetable exports continue to increase, to 2013, Chinese accounted for more than 70% of the vegetable market in ASEAN and the kernel density analysis showed that the growth of growth from exports; second, by three yuan margin model analysis, Chinese of ASEAN vegetables export growth model "growth, price growth supplement, and this growth mode is not widespread, is also applicable to different types of vegetable export fresh frozen vegetables and dried vegetables. A large number of exports, to lay the foundation Chinese" exporters ", cooking processing of vegetable exports gradually increased, to make up for the deep processing of vegetable market vacancy; third,. A constant market share model (CMS) developed, this pattern of growth promoting factors in China growing vegetables and fresh frozen vegetables export competitiveness, the competitiveness of the export growth gradually weakened, and dried vegetables and vegetable cooking processing competitiveness of export growth contribution increases, which shows that Chinese in diversified varieties of vegetables exports, and gradually from primary processing to deep processing vegetables vegetables export model extension; fourth, Chinese export competitive advantage to ASEAN is the natural resources, geographical location, regional economic cooperation and the production cost Chinese - ASEAN Free Trade Area, and competitive advantage compared with developing countries with high labor costs, compared with the developed countries deep processing, backward technology, both of which lead to the export of vegetables compared with competitors, the price is high, causing the market unstable. According to the research conclusion In our country, we should do the following: first, to further expand the scale of export to ASEAN, adjust the export structure; secondly, improve the international competitiveness of vegetable export, improve labor productivity, improve the level of agricultural science and technology, increase the mechanization of vegetable production and export standard; secondly, the government should provide favorable conditions for the production and export of vegetables, from extensive production management to intensive production management; finally, make full use of Chinese ASEAN Free Trade Area, to create a better external environment.

【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.13;F752.62

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