国有林区经济增长与资源消耗的伪脱钩风险识别及破解思路

发布时间：2018-03-26 02:12

本文选题：国有林区　切入点：经济增长　出处：《林业科学》2017年04期

【摘要】：【目的】经济增长与资源保护之间的冲突和矛盾是横亘在国有林区可持续发展道路上的主要障碍。通过对经济增长和资源消耗之间伪脱钩风险的实证检验,探寻"天保"工程实施以来国有林区是否实现了经济增长和资源保护的双赢发展,将有助于为全面启动的国有林区改革提供实践参考。【方法】首先,分别采用Tapio弹性分析法和Kuznets曲线模型实证判定国有林区经济增长与资源消耗之间的脱钩关系;其次,利用对数趋势线方法对脱钩后经济增长和资源保护之间是否存在伪脱钩风险进行有效识别;再次,通过构建国有林区经济发展模型和经济增长模型,探寻伪脱钩风险破解的主导因素和基本思路。【结果】1)对比Tapio弹性分析和Kuznets曲线模型的脱钩结果,得出国有林区经济增长和资源消耗自2003年起实现脱钩;2)2003—2014年国有林区平均森林覆盖率和GDP增长率的对数趋势线中自变量系数分别为1.394 4和-29.69,二者呈显著的相反变化趋势;3)经济发展模型和增长模型估计结果显示,非木质经济(0.992,1.969)、木材产量(0.257,0.347)及投资(0.078,0.158)是支撑国有林区经济发展和驱动经济增长的主要因素,作用程度依次下降,在岗职工投入对林区经济发展具有消极影响(-0.202),且对经济增长无显著贡献(t=-0.28)。【结论】1)国有林区经济增长和资源消耗自2003年跨过EMC最高点后实现脱钩,但脱钩后资源保护取得积极成效的同时经济利益严重受损,二者之间存在伪脱钩风险;2)木材资源对林区经济的支撑和驱动效应依然显著,但限于资源管控的政策干预而被严重遮掩,因此经济和资源并未实现真正脱钩,而是处于伪脱钩状态;3)国有林区经济和资源的伪脱钩关系主要源于"天保"政策对森林开发利用的强制干预;4)大力发展非木质经济是停伐转型背景下提升国有林区经济总量和驱动经济增长的优先选择,其次为鼓励和扩大投资以及寻求新的木材供给,再者则是如何有效消除劳动力冗余;5)系统构建了以投资为支撑、以职工为载体、以非木质经济发展为动力、以科技创新为手段,旨在实现国有林区经济和资源双赢发展的伪脱钩风险破解机制。
[Abstract]:[objective] the conflicts and contradictions between economic growth and resource protection are the main obstacles to sustainable development of state-owned forest regions. The empirical test of the risk of pseudo-decoupling between economic growth and resource consumption is carried out. To explore whether the state-owned forest regions have realized the win-win development of economic growth and resource protection since the implementation of the "natural conservation" project, it will be helpful to provide a practical reference for the reform of the state-owned forest regions that have been launched in an all-round way. [methods] first of all, Tapio elastic analysis method and Kuznets curve model are used to determine the decoupling relationship between economic growth and resource consumption in state-owned forest regions. The logarithmic trend line method is used to identify whether there is a pseudo-decoupling risk between economic growth and resource protection after decoupling. Thirdly, the economic development model and economic growth model of state-owned forest region are constructed. The main factors and basic ideas of pseudo-decoupling risk analysis are explored. [results] 1) comparing the results of Tapio elastic analysis and Kuznets curve model, It is concluded that the independent variable coefficients in logarithmic trend line of average forest coverage and GDP growth rate of state-owned forest regions from 2003 to 2014 are 1.394 4 and -29.69 respectively, which show significant opposite changes. The estimates of the economic development model and the growth model show that. The main factors supporting the economic development and driving the economic growth of the state-owned forest area are 0.992U 1.969m, 0.2570.347) and investment 0.0780.158), and the degree of action decreases in turn. The input of staff and workers on the job has a negative impact on the economic development of forest regions and has no significant contribution to economic growth. [conclusion] 1) the economic growth and resource consumption of state-owned forest areas have been decoupled since 2003, when they crossed the peak of EMC. However, the positive results of resource protection after decoupling and the serious damage to economic interests, the risk of pseudo-decoupling exists between the two, and the supporting and driving effect of wood resources on forest economy is still significant. But policy interventions that are limited to resource control have been heavily overshadowed, so that the economy and resources have not been truly decoupled. But in the state of pseudo-decoupling (3) the pseudo-decoupling relationship between the economy and resources in the state-owned forest region is mainly due to the compulsory intervention of the "natural conservation" policy on forest development and utilization. (4) vigorously developing the non-wood economy is to promote the state-owned forest under the background of cutting stoppage and transformation. Regional economic aggregates and priority options for driving economic growth, Secondly, in order to encourage and expand investment and seek new wood supply, moreover, how to effectively eliminate labor redundancy and how to construct investment as support, staff as carrier, non-wood economic development as driving force, and scientific and technological innovation as means, In order to realize the double-win development of economy and resources in state-owned forest area, the risk of pseudo-decoupling is solved.
【作者单位】：东北林业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY032) 黑龙江省科技攻关重点项目(GC14D101) 中央高校基本科业务费专项资金项目(2572014AC01)
【分类号】：F326.2

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