福建省耕地生态安全评价及其与经济的协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 13:32

本文选题：耕地生态安全　切入点：PSR模型　出处：《福建农林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：生态安全是国家安全的重要部分,耕地生态系统作为生态系统的重要组成部分,耕地生态安全状况对地区生态安全的影响至关重要,对耕地生态安全状况进行评价与预测,不仅能掌握当前耕地生态安全状况,了解影响耕地生态安全的障碍因素,更能针对其变化情况做出应对措施,同时,福建省作为21世纪海上丝绸之路核心区,经济发展面临前所未有的新机遇,鉴于经济发展与耕地生态安全建设同等重要,分析两系统的协调发展状况对指导区域的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文通过构建基于PSR模型的指标体系,对福建省2004-2015年的耕地生态安全现状进行评价与分析,通过障碍度模型分析主要障碍因子,同时,运用协调发展模型得出福建省2004-2015年经济系统与耕地生态安全的协调发展度,并分析了近年来两系统的协调发展状况,最后,运用无偏GM(1,1)模型预测2016-2025年耕地生态安全的各指标值,进而得到未来十年的耕地生态安全值,对其进行分析可知福建省未来十年的耕地生态安全状况。本研究的结论主要有:(1)耕地生态安全现状评价及障碍因子分析。2004-2015年,福建省耕地生态安全状况逐年改善,安全状态从一般安全级提升为比较安全级,此期间对耕地生态安全产生较大影响的阻碍层从初期的响应层转为后期的压力层,具体的障碍因素不同时期各不相同,2004-2009年主要有耕地垦殖率、单位面积农膜负荷、单位耕地面积化肥负荷等;2010-2015年主要有单位耕地面积化肥负荷、环境污染治理投资占GDP比重、农村人均可支配收入等。(2)耕地生态安全与经济的协调发展状况分析。2004-2015年,福建省耕地生态年全与经济的协调度和协调发展度都呈增长趋势,两系统的协调性不断增强,协调发展情况从初期的失调发展经济滞后型逐渐转变为高级协调发展同步型。(3)耕地生态安全变化情况预测及分析。根据预测结果得出,2016-2025年,福建省耕地生态安全值呈下降趋势,安全等级随之下降,从2016-2020年的较安全状态降低到2021-2025年的一般安全状态,且有继续下降的趋势,经分析得出,2016-2020年主要的障碍层为响应层,障碍因素主要有农村人均可支配收入、森林覆盖率、单位耕地面积农业机械总动力等,2021-2025年最大的障碍层为压力层,主要障碍因素包括耕地垦殖率、单位耕地面积农膜负荷、单位耕地面积化肥负荷等。
[Abstract]:Ecological security is an important part of national security. Cultivated land ecosystem is an important part of ecosystem. Not only can we grasp the current situation of ecological security of cultivated land, understand the obstacles affecting the ecological security of cultivated land, but also respond to its changing situation. At the same time, Fujian Province is the core area of the 21st century maritime Silk Road. Economic development is facing unprecedented new opportunities. Given that economic development is as important as the ecological security of cultivated land, It is of great significance to analyze the coordinated development of the two systems for guiding the sustainable development of the region. Through constructing the index system based on PSR model, this paper evaluates and analyzes the present situation of ecological security of cultivated land in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015. This paper analyzes the main obstacle factors through the barrier degree model, at the same time, using the coordinated development model, obtains the coordinated development degree of Fujian Province's economic system and cultivated land ecological security from 2004 to 2015, and analyzes the coordinated development situation of the two systems in recent years. In this paper, the unbiased GM1 / 1) model is used to predict the ecological security of cultivated land in 2016-2025, and then the ecological security of cultivated land in the next ten years is obtained. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) the present situation of cultivated land ecological security and the analysis of obstacle factors. From 2004 to 2015, the situation of cultivated land ecological security in Fujian Province has been improved year by year. The safety state was upgraded from the general safety level to the relatively safe level. During this period, the barrier layer, which had a great impact on the ecological security of cultivated land, changed from the initial response layer to the later pressure layer. The specific obstacle factors are mainly cultivated land reclamation rate, agricultural film load per unit area, chemical fertilizer load per cultivated land area and chemical fertilizer load per unit cultivated land area during 2004-2009. The proportion of environmental pollution control investment in GDP is the highest in 2010-2015. Analysis on the coordinated Development of Ecological Security of cultivated Land and economy in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015, the degree of coordination and coordinated development between the whole cultivated land ecological year and the economy in Fujian Province showed an increasing trend, and the coordination between the two systems was continuously strengthened. The situation of coordinated development has gradually changed from the initial unbalanced development economy lagging type to the advanced coordinated development synchronizing type. The change of cultivated land ecological security has been predicted and analyzed. According to the forecast results, the cultivated land ecological security value in Fujian Province has a downward trend in 2016-2025. The security level then decreased, from the safer state of 2016-2020 to the general safe state of 2021-2025, and the trend continued to decline. After analysis, it was concluded that the main barrier layer in 2016-2020 was the response layer, and the main obstacle factors were the per capita disposable income in rural areas. The biggest obstacle layer of forest coverage, total power of agricultural machinery per unit cultivated land in 2021-2025 is pressure layer, the main obstacle factors include cultivated land reclamation rate, agricultural film load per unit cultivated land area, fertilizer load per unit cultivated land area, etc.
【学位授予单位】：福建农林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X826;F323.211

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