“送猪崽”与“折现金”:我国产业精准扶贫的路径分析与政策模拟研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 06:03

本文选题：产业扶贫路径　切入点：系统动力学模型　出处：《财经研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：产业扶贫旨在将贫困户的生产活动纳入社会产业大循环,因此其一直是全世界扶贫工作的重要方式和主要目标之一。我国产业精准扶贫出现了两条新路径:一是GTP路径,即向贫困户送猪崽、鸡苗和良种等资本,直接将贫困户的生产纳入当地的产业体系;二是GSP路径,即将扶贫资金折合现金并由贫困户自己决定投资项目和选择产业。文章构建了包括贫困户和非贫困户的微观主体行为模型以及基于农村公平和效率的农村福利模型,分别研究了这两条新路径上贫困户福利和农村福利的动态演变过程,然后使用系统动力学模型进行了政策模拟,拟探索出我国产业精准扶贫的最优路径及其政策支持空间。结果显示:在第3~4年的时间内,GSP路径要优于GTP,但是超过4年,GTP路径上的贫困户福利和农村福利就会累进性超过GSP。而且,在GTP路径上的时间越长,扶贫效果就越好。在中长期,提高贫困户的技术水平,增加贫困户的初始资本额是进一步提高GTP路径上贫困户福利和农村福利水平的重要环节。文章的结论对于提高我国精准扶贫的理论自信,进一步完善我国产业精准扶贫政策体系具有一定的启示。
[Abstract]:The purpose of industrial poverty alleviation is to bring the production activities of poor households into the social industrial cycle, so it has always been one of the important ways and main targets of poverty alleviation work all over the world. That is, to send pig cubs, chicken seedlings and improved seeds to poor households, and directly bring the production of poor households into the local industrial system; second, the GSP path, That is to say, the poverty alleviation funds will be converted into cash, and the poor households will decide their own investment projects and industries. This paper constructs a micro behavior model including poor households and non-poor households, and a rural welfare model based on rural equity and efficiency. The dynamic evolution process of welfare of poor households and rural welfare on these two new paths is studied, and then the policy simulation is carried out by using the system dynamics model. This paper intends to explore the optimal path and policy support space for precise poverty alleviation in China's industry. The results show that the GSP path is superior to GTPin the 3rd ~ 4th year, but the welfare of poor households and the rural welfare on the GTP path for more than 4 years will be tired. More progressive than GSPs. And, The longer the time on the GTP path, the better the effect of poverty alleviation. In the medium to long term, the technical level of poor households will be improved. Increasing the initial capital of poor households is an important link to further improve the welfare and rural welfare level of poor households on the path of GTP. Further improving the policy system of industry precision poverty reduction in China has certain enlightenment.
【作者单位】：华中农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(2016BJY101)
【分类号】：F323.8;F326.3

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