吉林省粮食产能提升的因素分析

发布时间：2018-03-29 20:00

本文选题：吉林省　切入点：粮食产能　出处：《吉林农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在人口数量不断增长且土地资源有限的背景下,人地矛盾越来越严重,粮食供求关系偏紧,粮食安全问题逐渐受到人们的重视。近年来中央一号文件也多次关注粮食安全问题,而提高粮食生产能力无疑是保障国家粮食安全的重要举措。吉林省作为重要的产粮大省,积极对其粮食生产条件进行分析,找出影响粮食产能提升的重要因素并有针对性的进行改善,对提高吉林省粮食产能及进一步保障国家粮食安全和促进农民增收具有十分重要的意义。本文首先定性分析了吉林省的粮食生产条件,并根据其粮食生产的特征变化划分生产阶段,通过分析得知吉林省在全国粮食生产中的重要地位。同时得出吉林省的粮食生产条件有利于作物的生长,但由于人为等多方面的影响,这种优越条件开始有所下降。其次,应用spss软件对农业自然灾害、水资源利用、耕地数量变化、农村劳动力、农业科技推广、农业机械化、粮食财政直接补贴政策等因素与吉林省粮食产能之间的相关关系及影响程度分别进行了分析。最后,通过分析提炼出主要的指标因素,运用Eviews软件建立C-D生产函数模型对其与吉林省粮食总产量之间的关系进行定量分析,得出对吉林省粮食总产量的增长贡献最大的因素为农业机械化,其贡献率达到了75.11%。随后进一步运用DPS采用灰色关联分析法,对影响吉林省粮食单产及劳均产量的指标因素进行研究,通过分析得出化肥施用量与人均耕地面积均对二者产生重要影响。通过分析得出要提高吉林省粮食产能首先要加强对耕地的管理与保护;其次加大农业技术投入,积极进行田间水利设施建设;此外,继续对农机具实行购置补贴,提高农民对农业机械的购买力,实现农业机械化水平的进一步提高。
[Abstract]:Under the background of increasing population and limited land resources, the contradiction between man and land is becoming more and more serious, the relationship between supply and demand of grain is tight, and the problem of food security has been paid more and more attention. In recent years, the first document of the Central Committee has also paid attention to the issue of food security many times. Improving grain production capacity is undoubtedly an important measure to ensure national food security. Jilin Province, as an important grain-producing province, actively analyzes its grain production conditions. Find out the important factors that affect the increase of grain production capacity and improve it in a targeted way. It is of great significance to improve the grain production capacity of Jilin Province and to further ensure the national grain security and increase farmers' income. This paper first qualitatively analyzes the conditions of grain production in Jilin Province. According to the characteristics of grain production, the production stage is divided, and the important position of Jilin Province in the national grain production is found through analysis. At the same time, it is concluded that the grain production conditions of Jilin Province are favorable to the growth of crops. However, due to the influence of human factors, this advantage began to decline. Secondly, the application of spss software to agricultural natural disasters, utilization of water resources, changes in the quantity of cultivated land, rural labor force, agricultural science and technology extension, agricultural mechanization, The correlation between the grain direct subsidy policy and the grain production capacity in Jilin Province is analyzed respectively. Finally, the main index factors are extracted from the analysis. The relationship between C-D production function model and total grain yield of Jilin Province was quantitatively analyzed by using Eviews software. It was concluded that agricultural mechanization was the most important factor contributing to the growth of total grain output in Jilin Province. Its contribution rate has reached 75.11. then the index factors affecting grain yield per unit yield and average yield of workers in Jilin Province were studied by using DPS and grey relational analysis. Through the analysis, it is concluded that the amount of fertilizer and the area of cultivated land per capita have an important influence on them. Through the analysis, it is concluded that in order to improve the grain production capacity of Jilin Province, the management and protection of cultivated land should be strengthened, and the input of agricultural technology should be increased. In addition, we should continue to subsidize the purchase of farm machinery and tools, increase farmers' purchasing power to agricultural machinery, and further improve the level of agricultural mechanization.
【学位授予单位】：吉林农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：N941.5;F326.11

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