全球化背景下美国牛肉出口贸易格局研究——简析对中国牛肉市场价格的影响

发布时间：2018-03-30 12:06

本文选题：牛肉进口价格　切入点：美国牛肉　出处：《价格理论与实践》2017年06期

【摘要】：伴随着中国牛肉消费需求的增加,牛肉贸易市场正逐步扩大,近期中美牛肉贸易在中断12年后解禁。本文在分析美国牛肉出口全球贸易格局和中美牛肉贸易走势的基础上,研究新型贸易下美国牛肉进入中国市场对牛肉市场价格的影响。结果显示,近期美国牛肉进入中国市场量小价高,进口量大幅增加的情况不会出现,进口超低价格的美国牛肉不太可能,短期对国内牛肉市场价格影响程度较小。长期来看,中国将逐步加大美国牛肉进口,在此情况下,分环节分析,除了屠宰销售环节外,对养殖环节出栏活牛价格会有小幅影响;分产品分析,对冻肉产品价格有一定影响,对鲜牛肉产品价格影响较小。
[Abstract]:With the increasing demand for beef consumption in China, the beef trade market is gradually expanding. Recently, the beef trade between China and the United States has been suspended for 12 years. This paper analyzes the global trade pattern of American beef exports and the trend of Sino-US beef trade. This paper studies the impact of American beef entering the Chinese market on the beef market price under the new trade. The results show that the small price of American beef entering the Chinese market and the large increase in imports will not occur in the near future. U. S. beef imports at ultra-low prices are unlikely, and the short-term impact on the domestic beef market is relatively small. In the long run, China will gradually increase its beef imports from the United States. In this case, step by step analysis shows that, in addition to slaughtering and selling, It has a small influence on the price of live cattle in the breeding link, and has a certain influence on the price of frozen meat products by product analysis, and has a little effect on the price of fresh beef products.
【作者单位】：中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所;中国农业科学院农业信息研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71503251) 中国农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(1610052016002-1);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01) 国家牧草产业技术体系专项资金(CARS-35-22) 农业部畜禽统计监测预警项目
【分类号】：F313.7;F746.12

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