基于MCE-CA-Markov的三峡库区土地利用演变模拟及预测

发布时间：2018-03-30 12:33

本文选题：土地利用　切入点：演变　出处：《农业工程学报》2017年19期

【摘要】：为深入研究三峡库区蓄水以来土地利用演变规律及驱动机制,该研究以库区2000、2007及2014年的Landsat TM遥感影像作为数据源,在运用ARCGIS10.1对库区土地利用现状进行分析的基础上;基于多标准评价(multi-criteria evaluation,MCE)的元胞自动机和马尔可夫链(CA-Markov)模拟库区自组织的土地利用演变;并利用多时相的遥感分类图像检验MCE-CA-Markov的模拟精度,经检验,其Kappa系数达到0.971 2;利用检验过的土地利用演变限制条件及因子组合来对库区2028年土地利用进行预测。研究结果表明:运用MCE-CA-Markov模拟土地利用演变规律是可行的;在2000—2014年间,库区土地利用变化图谱面积由大到小排序为稳定变化型后期变化型前期变化型反复变化型持续变化型;模拟得到库区2014年土地利用格局与解译的土地利用格局一致,相对精度达到84.48%;预测到2028年时,库区耕地、林地及草地继续减少,水域、建设用地及未利用地持续增加,预测结果表明三峡库区土地利用变化十分活跃,生态环境恢复和重建的压力很大。因此,迫切需要加强三峡库区耕地、林地和草地的保护,控制和阻止盲目开垦耕地的行为,促进库区生态环境的保护和改善。研究结果以期为三峡库区土地利用规划、城市建设以及生态环境修复提供理论支撑。
[Abstract]:In order to study the evolution of land use and its driving mechanism since the water storage in the three Gorges Reservoir area, the Landsat TM remote sensing images of the three Gorges Reservoir area in 2007 and 2014 were used as the data sources, and the present situation of land use in the reservoir area was analyzed by using ARCGIS10.1.The cellular automata and Markov chain CA-Markovs based on multi-criteria evaluation are used to simulate the self-organized land use evolution in the reservoir area, and the simulation accuracy of MCE-CA-Markov is verified by using multi-temporal remote sensing classification images.The Kappa coefficient is 0.971, and the land use in 2028 is predicted by using the tested limiting conditions and combination of factors.The results show that it is feasible to use MCE-CA-Markov to simulate the law of land use evolution, and from 2000 to 2014, the map area of land use change in the reservoir area is ranked from large to small to stable change type, early change type, repeated change type, continuous change type.The simulation shows that the land use pattern of the reservoir area in 2014 is consistent with that of the interpreted land use pattern, and the relative precision is 84.48. By 2028, the cultivated land, forest land and grassland in the reservoir area will continue to decrease, while the water area, construction land and unused land will continue to increase.The prediction results show that the land use change is very active in the three Gorges Reservoir area, and the pressure of ecological environment restoration and reconstruction is very great.Therefore, there is an urgent need to strengthen the protection of cultivated land, woodland and grassland in the three Gorges Reservoir area, to control and prevent the behavior of blindly reclaiming cultivated land, and to promote the protection and improvement of ecological environment in the reservoir area.The results are expected to provide theoretical support for land use planning, urban construction and ecological environment restoration in the three Gorges Reservoir area.
【作者单位】：重庆工商大学环境与资源学院;重庆工商大学旅游与国土资源学院;重庆工商大学融智学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41101503) 重庆市教委科技项目(KJ1601901) 重庆工商大学融智学院科研项目(20158001);重庆工商大学研究生创新型科研项目(yjscxx2017-066-63)
【分类号】：F224;F301.2

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