珠三角丘陵区耕地质量综合评价及指标权重敏感性分析

发布时间：2018-04-01 10:15

本文选题：土地利用　切入点：整治　出处：《农业工程学报》2017年08期

【摘要】：快速工业化和城市化给珠三角地区的耕地造成一系列土壤环境污染问题,合理评价这些区域耕地质量对指导耕地的有效利用和保护以及实现耕地数量-质量综合平衡与管理具有重要意义。目前耕地质量评价中,较少考虑土壤污染因素,并且缺乏对指标的权重敏感性分析验证评价结果的可靠性。因此该文以珠三角土壤受污染区之一的增城区为例,综合考虑土壤肥力因素以及土壤环境评价指标,从土壤理化性质、农业生产条件、区位条件、土壤环境4个方面构建耕地质量综合评价指标体系,分析增城区耕地质量总体特征及空间布局与行政区域分布规律,在此基础上基于OAT(one-at-a-time)法来评估各指标权重的不确定性对评价结果的影响程度。结果表明:增城区耕地整体质量较高但优质耕地较少。在耕地质量综合评价中融入土壤污染因素,并对其进行微观定量分析,使得评价体系更全面。不同指标权重变化对耕地质量变化率影响的空间差异较大;对于同一指标,权重增加或减少的值相同时,其对耕地质量评价结果的敏感性相同。最大的MACR(mean absolute change rate)值3.558 2%远低于相应的权重变化率30%,表明评价结果总体相对稳定,该文初始确定的权重是合理的。该研究有助于国土相关部门更好地掌握土壤受污染区域的耕地质量,在空间多准则决策中减少不确定性影响。
[Abstract]:Reasonable evaluation of cultivated land quality in these regions is of great significance to guide the effective utilization and protection of cultivated land and to realize the comprehensive balance and management of cultivated land quantity and quality.At present, the factors of soil pollution are seldom considered in the evaluation of cultivated land quality, and the reliability of the evaluation results is verified by the weight sensitivity analysis of the indexes.Therefore, taking Zengcheng District, one of the contaminated areas in the Pearl River Delta, as an example, considering soil fertility factors and soil environmental evaluation indexes, the paper analyzes the physical and chemical properties of soil, agricultural production conditions and location conditions.The comprehensive evaluation index system of cultivated land quality was constructed in four aspects of soil environment, and the general characteristics of cultivated land quality, spatial distribution and distribution law of administrative region in Zengcheng district were analyzed.Based on the OAT-one-at-a-time method, the degree of influence of uncertainty of index weights on the evaluation results is evaluated.The results show that the overall quality of cultivated land in Zengcheng area is higher but the quality cultivated land is less.Soil pollution factors were integrated into the comprehensive evaluation of cultivated land quality and microcosmic quantitative analysis was carried out to make the evaluation system more comprehensive.For the same index, the sensitivity to the evaluation results of cultivated land quality is the same when the weight increases or decreases the same value.The maximum MACR(mean absolute change value of 3.558 is far lower than the corresponding weight change rate of 30, which indicates that the evaluation results are relatively stable, and the weights determined in this paper are reasonable.This study is helpful for the relevant departments to better understand the quality of cultivated land in contaminated soil areas and to reduce the uncertainty in spatial multi-criteria decision-making.
【作者单位】：华南农业大学水利与土木工程学院;广东省土地信息工程技术研究中心;广东省土地利用与整治重点实验室;华南农业大学资源环境学院;广东省土地开发储备局;
【基金】：广东省科技计划项目(2014B020206002,2015B010110006)
【分类号】：F323.211

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