城乡劳动力转移中的先驱效应

发布时间：2018-04-02 09:36

本文选题：信息不完全　切入点：先驱　出处：《南开经济研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：本文使用中国居民收入调查数据库2008年农村住户调查(CHIP2008)数据,将最早外出时间在1984年到1992年之间的农民工定义为早期农民工,基于我国城乡劳动力市场的信息不完全,我们分析了他们在城乡劳动力转移中的先驱效应。实证结果表明,早期农民工越多的地区,当地的农民外出的概率也越高,即城乡劳动力转移中存在先驱效应。考虑到信息传播的质量,我们根据早期农民工的平均教育以及当地其他农民的平均教育进行分组回归,发现教育程度较高的地区,先驱效应越强。本文还发现,先驱越多的地区,当地外出的农民工的行业集聚特征越明显。作为稳健性检验,早期农民工定义的调整以及将1978年以前因外生因素外出的农村劳动力作为早期农民工的替代变量的分析都没有改变文章的结果。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of CHIP2008), this paper defines migrant workers who were away from 1984 to 1992 as early migrant workers, and based on the incomplete information of labor market in urban and rural areas of our country.We analyze their forerunner effect in the transfer of urban and rural labor force.The empirical results show that the more migrant workers in the early period, the higher the probability of local farmers going out, that is, there is a pioneer effect in the transfer of urban and rural labor force.Considering the quality of information dissemination, we regress according to the average education of early migrant workers and the average education of other local farmers, and find that the higher the education level is, the stronger the pioneer effect is.It is also found that the more pioneers, the more obvious the industry agglomeration of migrant workers.As a conservatism test, the adjustment of the definition of early migrant workers and the analysis of the rural labor force going out because of exogenous factors before 1978 as the substitute variables of early migrant workers have not changed the results of the article.
【作者单位】：北京大学光华管理学院;嘉实基金管理有限公司;浙江财经大学财政税务学院;北京大学经济学院;北京大学社会研究中心;
【分类号】：F323.6

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