黑龙江省猪肉供需特征及趋势研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 16:24

本文选题：生猪生产　切入点：猪肉消费　出处：《东北农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着国民经济水平的提高,人民生活的改善和营养均衡理念的发展,人们对猪肉的消费需求与日剧增。而近年来,由于供需失衡导致的一系列猪肉产量波动、价格波动和消费量波动,不仅给养殖户的经济利益带来损失,而且也让消费者面临非常大的市场风险,进而影响畜牧业的平衡发展。因此,研究猪肉产业生产消费的波动特征及影响因素,以促进猪肉产业长期稳定健康发展,满足城乡居民的消费需求,已成为关系民生的重大问题。本文基于历史数据,从生产和消费两个视角对黑龙江省生猪生产现状和未来的供需情况进行了深入研究,具体研究如下:(1)从生猪生产和猪肉消费两个视角分析了黑龙江省猪肉产业发展概况,得出:2000年以来,黑龙江省生猪生产和猪肉消费在猪肉产业发展变化中表现出各自的特征。在生猪生产方面:猪肉产量和猪肉价格都出现了明显地变动;在猪肉消费方面:黑龙江省猪肉消费量与日俱增,消费水平也随之增加。(2)黑龙江省生猪生产波动特征及影响因素研究。首先,应用HP滤波法对黑龙江省生猪生产波动进行分析,发现黑龙江省生猪生产波动呈现出三方面的特征:猪肉出栏量和猪肉年产量增长趋势相同,黑龙江省生猪生产波幅在特殊情况下特别明显外,波幅有所减缓以及生产呈现周期性的波动但趋势近年来有所减缓;其次,应用因子分析法研究生猪生产波动成因,发现影响因素主要有四个,即供给因子、需求因子、生产因子和外生因子。其中,供给因子影响最大,需求因子次之,生产和外生因子最小。(3)黑龙江省猪肉消费特征及影响因素研究。黑龙江省猪肉消费量随着居民生活水平的提高也主要表现出其自身特征,即居民的猪肉消费量从总体上看在逐年增高,但城乡居民的猪肉消费量差距明显。影响猪肉消费的因素主要是猪肉价格因素、猪肉肉质因素、消费者食品安全认知和营养健康认知。猪肉价格因素对居民猪肉消费需求影响相对最大,而消费者食品安全认知次之,但相对肉质因素和营养健康认知来说,影响效果依然很大。(4)黑龙江省猪肉供需预测及平衡分析。首先应用ARMA模型对黑龙江省未来五年猪肉生产量和消费量进行预测,表明猪肉生产量和消费量间严重不平衡;其次,根据生产量和消费量间缺口,分析其产生原因。最后,通过供需匹配系数将生产量与消费量进行调整,得到供给量和需求量。预计未来五年黑龙江省猪肉供需基本保持平衡。通过分析黑龙江省生猪生产与消费发展现状和特征,为猪肉产业各个环节参与者指导实践以及黑龙江省猪肉产业发展都具有十分重要的意义。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of the national economy, the improvement of the people's life and the development of the idea of nutrition balance, people's demand for pork consumption is increasing dramatically.In recent years, a series of fluctuations in pork output, prices and consumption caused by the imbalance between supply and demand have not only brought losses to farmers' economic interests, but also made consumers face very large market risks.And then affect the balanced development of animal husbandry.Therefore, studying the fluctuating characteristics and influencing factors of pork production and consumption in order to promote the long-term stable and healthy development of pork industry and meet the consumption needs of urban and rural residents has become a major issue related to people's livelihood.Based on historical data, the present situation of pig production and future supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province were studied from the perspectives of production and consumption.This paper analyzes the development of pork industry in Heilongjiang Province from the perspectives of pig production and pork consumption, and concludes that: since 2000, the pig production and pork consumption in Heilongjiang Province have shown their own characteristics in the development of pork industry.In the production of live pigs: pork production and pork prices have changed significantly; in terms of pork consumption: the consumption of pork in Heilongjiang Province is increasing with each passing day.Consumption level also increased. 2) the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of pig production in Heilongjiang Province.First of all, using HP filter method to analyze the fluctuation of production of live pigs in Heilongjiang Province, it is found that the fluctuation of production of live pigs in Heilongjiang Province shows three characteristics: the amount of pork out of stock and the increasing trend of annual output of pork are the same.The wave amplitude of live pig production in Heilongjiang Province is especially obvious under special circumstances. The amplitude of the wave has slowed down and the production has a periodic fluctuation, but the trend has slowed in recent years. Secondly, factor analysis method is used to study the causes of the fluctuation of live pig production.It is found that there are four main influencing factors, namely, supply factor, demand factor, production factor and exogenous factor.Among them, the supply factor is the most important, the demand factor is the second, the production and exogenous factor is the smallest.) the consumption characteristics and influencing factors of pork in Heilongjiang Province are studied.The pork consumption of Heilongjiang Province also shows its own characteristics with the improvement of the living standard of the residents, that is, the pork consumption of the residents is increasing year by year, but the difference of the consumption of pork between urban and rural residents is obvious.The main factors affecting pork consumption are pork price, pork meat quality, consumers' knowledge of food safety and nutrition and health.The influence of pork price factors on the consumption demand of pork was the biggest, followed by food safety cognition of consumers, but the effect was still great compared with meat quality factors and nutritional health cognition.) the prediction and balance analysis of pork supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province.Firstly, the ARMA model is used to predict the pork production and consumption in Heilongjiang Province in the next five years, which shows that the pork production and consumption are seriously unbalanced. Secondly, according to the gap between production and consumption, the causes of pork production and consumption are analyzed.Finally, supply and demand are obtained by adjusting production and consumption by matching coefficient of supply and demand.In the next five years, the pork supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province is basically balanced.Based on the analysis of the present situation and characteristics of pig production and consumption in Heilongjiang Province, it is of great significance to guide the practice of the participants in the pork industry and the development of the pork industry in Heilongjiang Province.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.3

【参考文献】