基于Tietenberg模型的土地利用变化多情景模拟预测——以武汉市蔡甸区为例

发布时间：2018-04-03 09:19

  本文选题：土地利用变化　切入点：情景模拟预测　出处：《资源科学》2017年09期

【摘要】：开展区域土地利用变化的多情景模拟对比研究,是厘清不同土地利用变化情景特点的重要基础,可为土地利用规划与政策制定提供多决策支持。本文在分析各地类转移情况的基础上,遵从自然增长、效益最大的原则,结合CLUE-S模型和Markov、Tietenberg模型对武汉市蔡甸区未来土地利用变化进行不同情景的模拟预测,并分析了各情景下土地利用变化的时空特征及土地收益。结果表明:(1)各情景下城镇村及工矿用地的来源结构差异明显。自然增长情景(情景Ⅰ)中城镇村及工矿用地增加的主要来源是耕地和水域用地,收益最大情景(情景Ⅱ)中城镇村及工矿用地增加的主要来源是耕地;(2)从景观结构和稳定性来看,两种情景下耕地和城镇村及工矿用地景观结构变化显著,耕地在两种情景下均呈现"稳定-不稳定-稳定"的变化规律,情景Ⅱ下城镇村及工矿用地景观稳定性更高,且新生成的城镇村及工矿用地斑块具有面积小、数量多的特点;(3)各情景下城镇用地扩张方式不尽相同,情景Ⅱ中城镇用地的扩张具有扩张速度更缓和、布局更均匀的特点,情景Ⅰ中城镇用地是围绕中心城区的摊大饼外延扩张方式;(4)从土地收益来看,在相同用地量下情景Ⅱ中土地获取的收益高于情景Ⅰ。
[Abstract]:The comparative study of multi-scenario simulation of regional land use change is an important basis to clarify the characteristics of different land use change scenarios and can provide multi-decision support for land use planning and policy making.On the basis of analyzing the situation of class transfer in various places, following the principle of natural growth and maximum benefit, combined with CLUE-S model and Markovan Tietenberg model, this paper simulates the different scenarios of land use change in Caidian District, Wuhan City.The temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change and land income were analyzed.The results show that there are significant differences in the source structure of town, village and industrial and mining land in different scenarios.In the natural growth scenario (scenario I), the main sources of the increase of urban villages and industrial and mining land are cultivated land and water land.According to the landscape structure and stability, the landscape structure of cultivated land and town village and industrial and mining land changed significantly in the two scenarios.Under both scenarios, cultivated land presents the law of "stability-instability-stability". Under scenario 鈪，

本文编号：1704572