我国农业生态效率时空格局差序化分析——基于DEA-ESDA模型

发布时间：2018-04-03 18:42

本文选题：农业生态效率　切入点：DEA模型　出处：《江苏农业科学》2017年04期

【摘要】：农业生态效率是衡量一个地区农业生态化发展水平的重要定量化指标,是作为如何抵抗高危生态风险的决策方向之一。采用DEA数据包络法对中国31个省、直辖市2005—2014年农业生态效率比较分析,并利用ESDA对中国农业生态效率进行全局和局部自相关分析,结果表明,我国农业生态效率南北差异明显,保护发展区、适度发展区和优势发展区依次逐区下降,同时三大发展区内农业生态效率也由南向北递减,分布具有差序化特征。2005—2014年全局自相关Moran鎦s I值均为正,表明我国省域之间农业生态效率呈现正相关的空间集聚分布。其中,2005—2010年农业生态效率空间集聚程度略有缩小,2010—2014年较快恢复并加强。区域生态效率异质性主要表现为出现相对稳定热点和冷点的差序变化,热点区主要集中在青藏、西南、华南和长江中下游发展区;冷点区主要集中在东北、黄淮海、西北及长城沿线发展区。农业生态效率空间差异与技术变动、农资消耗强度等所引起的农业规模效益、技术效益变化密切相关,基于空间探索性数据分析方法研究我国区域农业生态效率空间的集聚性和异质性,为制定提高区域农业生态效率相关调控政策提供参考。
[Abstract]:Agricultural ecological efficiency is an important quantitative index to measure the development level of agricultural ecology in a region, and it is one of the decision-making directions on how to resist the high risk ecological risk.A comparative analysis of agricultural ecological efficiency in 31 provinces and municipalities of China from 2005 to 2014 was carried out by using DEA data envelopment method. The global and local autocorrelation analysis of agricultural ecological efficiency in China was carried out by using ESDA. The results showed that: 1.The agricultural ecological efficiency of our country is obviously different from north to south, and the agricultural ecological efficiency of the three major development areas is decreasing from south to north, while the protection development area, the moderate development area and the dominant development area will decrease one by one, and the agricultural ecological efficiency will decrease from south to north.The global autocorrelation Moran I values were all positive from 2005 to 2014, which indicated that the agglomeration distribution of agricultural ecological efficiency among provinces in China was positively correlated.From 2005 to 2010, the agglomeration degree of agricultural ecological efficiency decreased a little and recovered and strengthened rapidly from 2010 to 2014.The heterogeneity of regional ecological efficiency is mainly manifested by the relatively stable hot spots and the differential order changes of the cold spots, which are mainly concentrated in Qinghai-Tibet, Southwest, South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while the cold spots are mainly concentrated in the northeast, the Huanghuai Sea, and the Huanghuai Sea.Northwest and the Great Wall along the development area.The spatial difference of agricultural ecological efficiency is closely related to the change of agricultural scale benefit and technical benefit caused by the change of technology, the intensity of consumption of agricultural material, etc.The spatial agglomeration and heterogeneity of regional agricultural ecological efficiency in China are studied based on spatial exploratory data analysis method, which provides a reference for formulating relevant regulation and control policies to improve regional agricultural ecological efficiency.
【作者单位】：福建农林大学作物科学学院;福建农林大学经济学院;
【基金】：福建省科技厅博士后纵向课题(编号:132300129)
【分类号】：F224;F323.22

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