基于Agent的失地农民创业决策行为模型、仿真实验与创业政策组合

发布时间：2018-04-04 10:52

本文选题：失地农民　切入点：创业机制　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：城镇化是我国实现现代化的必经之路。当前我国城镇化成果斐然,这些成就与大规模的城市周边及农村土地城镇化建设紧密相关,伴随带来了大量的失地农民。未来10年是我国经济和社会发展极为重要的时期,参考目前我国城镇化发展速度,可以预测出10年后失地农民总人数将会突破1亿大关。失地农民失去赖以生存的土地后,或陷入种地无田、就业无路的困境,或拿到高额的征地补偿金,变为“拆迁二世祖”,随意挥霍。种种现象表明,失地农民由于个人素质的欠缺,无法在市场上保持竞争力,适应城市生活,对未来充满困惑与忧虑,最终只能成为游走于城市和农村的“边缘人”。新型城镇化,就是要保证失地农民在失去土地的同时,享受城镇化带来的红利,让失地农民在城市获得永续的生存与发展能力,享受充分的就业权、创业权、受教育权,使其全面融入城市生活,实现安居梦、创业梦、市民梦。从理论研究和实践措施来看,现有解决失地农民问题的思路主要集中于补偿和保障上,然而该措施只能解决他们最基本的生存问题。要从根本上解决失地农民问题,应转变思路,从保障生存转向促进发展,即促进失地农民创业。然而创业是一个复杂过程,在复杂的环境下从事创业活动对失地农民提出了极大的考验,失地农民在做出创业决策时受到很多因素制约。学术界虽然意识到创业对解决失地农民长远生计具有重要意义,但已有研究整体上基本处于零星的探索性研究阶段,并多限于静态的规范性研究以及个案分析与经验的主观性总结层面上,缺少对失地农民创业决策行为的动态过程研究,因此研究的理论依据并不充分,提出的对策建议难以对失地农民创业提供有效指导。因此本文运用托达罗模型与复杂适应系统建立失地农民创业决策仿真模型,并进行仿真实验,得到失地农民创业决策动态行为过程,并据此提出了相关政策建议。本文首先通过归纳总结相关文献,并结合与失地农民深度访谈的资料,探究失地农民创业行为发生机制,即由创业意识到创业动机,随后识别创业机会,最终做出创业决策的过程。并通过GEM模型总结得到失地农民创业决策的影响因素,主要包括个人特质与外部环境因素。然后基于复杂适应系统Agent建立两种情景下的失地农民创业决策仿真模型,包括一般情景与征地情景。并在仿真实验平台NetLogo上进行仿真实验,得到失地农民创业决策的动态演化过程,最后根据研究结果给出针对性政策建议。通过本文研究,主要得出以下结论:(1)失地农民做出选择创业的决策行为所消耗的时间t因政府创业政策力度的提高而缩短,即在积极的创业在创业信心、创业账户积累速度等方面推动了失地农民创业的活跃度。(2)拥有更高学习能力的失地农民,能够更早的做出创业决策,并发现创业机会,将创业类型由生存型升级为机会型。(3)风险是双刃剑,创业风险阻碍了失地农民创业账户值的积累,减弱了创业意向;而就业风险使失地农民选择不创业的概率减小,选择创业的概率增大,进而发掘出更多的创业潜力。(4)不同征地区位下,失地农民创业的活跃度不同,并呈现出自城中村向城乡结合部、偏远农村依次递减的规律。(5)当征地拆迁补偿金过高时,对失地农民的创业活跃度有较大的抑制作用。(6)社会保障水平的提高对失地农民创业的促进作用效果不明显。鉴于以上结论,本文分别从生产性政府行为、调节性政府行为、保护性政府行为三个维度提出了针对性的政策建议:(1)生产性政府行为,营造良好的创业氛围,打造失地农民创业孵化平台,完善创业培训内容;(2)调节性政府行为,从财政政策、税收政策方面予以促进失地农民创业;(3)保护性政府行为,制定针对性的创业扶持政策,完善政策的执行机制,做好政策执行的监督、政策效果的评估与反馈工作。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the only way which must be passed to realize the modernization of our country. The urbanization of our country has achieved remarkable achievements, these achievements are closely related with the construction of urbanization and rural land surrounding the large-scale city, with bringing a large number of landless peasants. The next 10 years is China's economic and social development is very important for the reference period, China's urbanization the speed of development, can be predicted after 10 years, the total number of landless peasants will exceed 100 million mark. The landless farmers lost their land, or in people who have no land, no way of employment difficulties, or to get the land, high compensation, into a "demolition two generation", splurge. All these show that the landless farmers due to lack of personal qualities, unable to remain competitive in the market, adapt to the city life, full of confusion and worry about the future, we can only become a walk in the city and countryside "marginalized" new city. Town, is to ensure that farmers lost their land in the urbanization at the same time, enjoy the dividends, let the farmers survive and develop sustainable ability in the city, enjoy full employment, entrepreneurship right, right to education, which fully integrate into city life, realize the living dream, dream, dream of people from the theoretical study and practical measures to solve the problem of landless peasants, the existing ideas mainly focus on compensation and security, but this measure can only solve their most basic living problems. In order to fundamentally solve the problem of landless peasants, should change ideas, from survival to promoting development, which promote the landless peasants entrepreneurship. However, entrepreneurship is a complex process, in the complex environment and engaged in business activities is a great test for the landless peasants, landless peasants in making business decisions by many factors. Although the academic consciousness The business is of great significance to solve the long-term livelihood of farmers, but the study on the whole in sporadic exploratory study, and limited to static normative research and case analysis and experience summary of the subjective level, the lack of research on the dynamic process of entrepreneurial decision-making behavior, therefore the theoretical basis of research is not well, the suggestions to provide effective guidance for the landless peasants entrepreneurship. So this paper uses the Todaro model and the complex adaptive system to establish entrepreneurial decision-making simulation model, and simulate dynamic behavior of landless peasants entrepreneurial decision-making process, and put forward relevant policy recommendations. Firstly, through summarizing the relevant literature, and according to the interviews with farmers depth information, explore the entrepreneurial behavior of landless peasants from the mechanism of entrepreneurial consciousness to a Industry motivation, followed by recognition of entrepreneurial opportunities, and ultimately make the entrepreneurial decision-making. And influence factors of landless peasants entrepreneurial decision by GEM model is summarized, including personal characteristics and external environmental factors. Then establish Agent system to lose two scenarios of farmers' entrepreneurial decision-making simulation model based on complex adaptive, including the general situation and the situation of land expropriation. And conduct simulation experiments in the simulation platform NetLogo, the dynamic evolution process of landless peasants entrepreneurial decision, finally according to the results of the study are given specific policy recommendations. Through this research, the main draw the following conclusions: (1) farmers choose entrepreneurial decision-making behavior of the time consumed by the t because of the government entrepreneurship policy efforts to improve and shorten, namely in the active venture in business confidence, entrepreneurial account accumulation rate of landless peasants to promote entrepreneurial activity. (2) have Higher learning ability of landless peasants, can make the entrepreneurial decision earlier, and found that entrepreneurial opportunities, entrepreneurial types will upgrade by the survival opportunity. (3) the risk is a double-edged sword, hindering the entrepreneurial venture account of landless peasants value accumulation, weaken the entrepreneurial intention; and the risk of employment of landless peasants selection probability do not start decreasing, increasing the probability of selection of entrepreneurship, to explore more entrepreneurial potential. (4) different land location, landless peasants entrepreneurial activity, and presents from villages to urban, rural remote descending rule. (5) when the land expropriation compensation is too high. The landless peasants entrepreneurial activity was greatly inhibited. (6) a higher level of social security of landless farmers' entrepreneurship promotion effect is not obvious. In view of the above conclusions, this paper from the production of government behavior, regulatory policy The government behavior, the three dimensions of protection government behavior and puts forward policy suggestions: (1) the production of government behavior, to create a good business atmosphere, build the landless peasants entrepreneurship incubator platform, improve the entrepreneurial training content; (2) regulating the government behavior, from fiscal policy, tax policy to promote the landless peasants entrepreneurship; (3) protect the government behavior, to develop targeted policies to support entrepreneurship, improve the implementation of policy, supervision of policy implementation, policy evaluation and feedback effect.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F323.6;F279.2

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