湖南省农业机械化现状及预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-04-07 18:46

本文选题：农业机械化　切入点：影响因素　出处：《中南林业科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：农业机械化是现代农业的物质载体和重要标志,在农业现代化发展过程中起着极为重要的推动作用。湖南省作为一个农业大省,农业机械化水平已有较大水平的提升。但是,在农业机械化发展过程中还存在着农机装配结构不合理,区域发展不平衡等问题,还不能适应新时期湖南省农村经济和社会发展的需要。因此,研究湖南省农业机械化发展的影响因素并提出相应对策、快速提升和发展农业机械化以实现农业大省向农业强省的跨越是我们急待解决的重大战略课题。本文着眼于湖南省农业机械化发展过程中存在的问题,分析其影响因素,基于湖南省农机化统计数据,以湖南省农机总动力保有量为主要研究对象,采用多元回归分析方法构建了农机总动力保有量预测模型,对湖南省农业机械化发展态势进行预测并提出一系列农机化发展对策。首先分析了湖南省农业机械化发展现状并指出其存在问题。根据湖南省农业机械化发展的统计数据资料,结合湖南省农机管理局调研情况,分析湖南省农业机械化发展现状并归纳其发展特征。近几年来湖南省农业机械化发展迅速,农机品种多样、农机装配总量增多,农机实用新技术迅速推广应用,农机社会化服务蓬勃发展,农业机械化水平不断提高。湖南省农业机械化稳步发展,各项工作取得了丰硕成果。然而,目前湖南省农业机械化总体水平还不高,存在着农机装备结构不合理、各个生产环节的机械化水平差异较大以及各地区机械化水平发展不平衡等问题,还不能满足新时期新形势下的农业发展需求。其次分析了湖南省农业机械化发展的促进及制约因素。一方面农业机械化法律法规的逐步完善、各级政府补贴力度的不断加大、湖南省良好的农机制造业基础以及农业机械化推广工作的大力开展不断推动着湖南省农业机械化健康发展；另一方面湖南省山地、丘陵多的地貌特点不利于农业规模化经营及机械化发展,农业机械化基础设施薄弱,农村劳动力的大量转移以及农机市场流通体系不健全也在一定程度上影响着湖南省农机化发展。再次对湖南省农机总动力保有量这一表征农业机械化程度及水平的重要参数进行了详细分析。汇总2007年以来湖南省农机化统计数据,分别对农机总投入、农村劳动力、农机从业人员受教育程度及农机推广等因素与农机总动力保有量进行相关性分析,分析各因素对农机总动力保有量的影响程度,并采用多元线性回归的方法,构建了农机总动力保有量预测模型,对湖南省农业机械化发展态势进行了预测。该模型的建立可为农机职能部门科学决策和制定发展规划提供一定的参考与依据。最后在分析农业机械化影响因素的基础上,针对湖南省农业机械化发展现状及问题,提出一系列战略对策和建议。农业机械化是一个动态发展的过程。针对湖南省农业机械化发展过程中存在的实际问题,分析其产生的原因,提出相应的对策建议,为相关部门决策提供依据和参考,对于进一步提高农业机械化水平,促进农村经济和农业生产发展,具有重要的理论和现实意义。
[Abstract]:Agricultural mechanization is the material carrier of modern agriculture and an important symbol in the development process of agricultural modernization plays an extremely important role. Hunan province is a big agricultural province, agricultural mechanization level has a larger level. However, in the development of agricultural mechanization still exist in the process of agricultural machinery assembly structure is not reasonable the problem, the imbalance of regional development, but also can not adapt to the needs of rural economic and social development of Hunan Province in the new period. Therefore, to study the influencing factors on the development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan province and puts forward some corresponding countermeasures, rapid promotion and development of agricultural mechanization to achieve agricultural province to a strong agricultural province across the major strategic issues need to be solved. This paper focuses on the development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan Province, the existing problems, analyze the influencing factors of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan Province Based on the statistical data in Hunan Province agricultural machine total To secure the quantity as the main research object, constructs the total power of agricultural machinery insurance model prediction using regression analysis method to the Hunan Province Agricultural Mechanization Development Trend Forecast and put forward a series of Countermeasures of agricultural mechanization development. First analysis of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan province development present situation and points out the existing problems according to the statistical data. Development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan Province, combined with the Hunan Province Agricultural Management Bureau of investigation, analysis of the current situation of the development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan province and summarized its development characteristics. In recent years the development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan Province, agricultural machine variety, agricultural machinery assembly total increase, the new technology of agricultural practical rapid popularization and application of social service agricultural development, agricultural mechanization level continues to increase. The steady development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan Province, the work has achieved fruitful results. However, the current Hunan Province agricultural machine The overall level is not high, there are unreasonable structure of agricultural equipment, the difference level of mechanization of various production processes and high mechanization level of the regional development imbalance, also can not meet the demand of agricultural development in the new period under the new situation. Then analyzes the constraints and promote the development of agricultural machinery in Hunan Province on the one hand, the agricultural mechanization. The consummation of the laws, the government subsidies at all levels continue to increase, Hunan province good agricultural machinery manufacturing industry base and agricultural mechanization vigorously promotes the healthy development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan province; on the other hand, Hunan mountain, hilly landform characteristics is not conducive to the agricultural scale management and development of mechanization of agricultural mechanization, weak infrastructure, rural labor transfer and agricultural market circulation system is not perfect in some way The degree of influence on Agricultural Mechanization Development in Hunan province. Again the important parameters characterizing the degree of agricultural mechanization and the level of total power of agricultural machinery in Hunan province are analyzed in detail. Summary of Hunan province since 2007, agricultural statistics, the total investment of agricultural, rural labor force, the total power of Education and promotion of agricultural mechanization the factors such as farm workers and agricultural insurance amount through correlation analysis, analysis of various factors on the total power of agricultural insurance to affect the quantity, and by using multiple linear regression method, the construction of agricultural machinery total power conservation model prediction in Hunan Province, agricultural mechanization development trend was predicted. The model can be provide a reference and basis for the agricultural departments of scientific decision-making and development planning. Finally, based on analyzing the influence factors of Agricultural Mechanization on Agricultural Mechanization Development in Hunan Province Present situation and problems, put forward a series of countermeasures and suggestions. The agricultural mechanization is a dynamic development process. According to the actual problems of the development of Agricultural Mechanization in Hunan Province, analyzes the reasons and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, provide the basis and reference for the relevant departments to further improve the agricultural decision-making. The level of mechanization of agricultural production and promote rural economic development, has important theoretical and practical significance.

【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F323.3

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