莱芜市土地利用动态变化及驱动力研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 15:39

本文选题：土地利用动态变化　切入点：趋势预测　出处：《山东农业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：土地是人类生存发展的最基础的物质条件。随着人口的增长、社会经济的发展,人类与土地之间的关系越来越密切,相互作用也越来越强,随之产生的资源、环境问题也受到了社会各界的强烈关注。土地利用变化己经成为引发环境变化的一个主要因素,针对土地利用变化及其驱动力的研究己成为土地科学研究的一个热点。本文选取山东省莱芜市为研究对象,利用莱芜市2009到2013年5年的土地利用调查数据,首先分析研究区域土地利用现状和动态变化,在此基础上,结合灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对该区域的土地利用趋势进行预测。然后采用莱芜市2004到2013年10年的各项统计数据对影响该区域土地利用动态变化的驱动力进行探究,继而针对莱芜市土地利用变化的驱动因子,提出实现土地资源合理有效利用的具体实际措施和建议,对实现莱芜市土地资源可持续利用具有一定的理论和现实意义。本文主要研究内容如下:(1)土地利用动态变化及趋势预测。5年内莱芜市土地利用结构整体上没有较大变化,仍以耕地、林地、草地和城镇村及工矿用地为主要用地类型,四者占比接近80%,但各类土地之间却发生了较大转变。土地利用数量变化。土地利用变化幅度方面,耕地、城镇村及工矿用地和交通运输用地分别增长了0.34%、6.13%和1.92%,以城镇村及工矿用地增加幅度最大,从31269.06hm2增加到33185.59 hm2;园地、林地、草地、水域及水利设施用地和其他土地则呈现负增长的现象,其中草地减幅最多,由34193.44 hm2减少至32703.59 hm2,幅度为4.36%。变化速度方面,除了城镇村及工矿用地达1%以上之外,单一土地利用动态度都比较小,说明土地利用各类型的变化不快。综合土地利用动态年变化率大约为0.20%,说明莱芜市土地利用整体转化速度比较慢。土地利用程度变化。从2009年到2013年,土地利用程度综合指数从266.55上升到268.42,其土地利用程度变化量ΔL=1.87,变化率R=0.70%,说明该区域的土地利用处于发展时期,人类活动对该区域土地利用的影响稍有增强。土地利用率较高,从2009年的93.19%到2013年的93.28%,垦殖率则从32.22%到32.33%,几乎未变化。景观偏离度从61.21%到62.05%,反映了莱芜人民强大的对自然环境的改造程度。综合来看,莱芜市的土地利用程度呈现出微弱的上升趋势,这表明莱芜市的土地利用整体水平处于一个稳定发展且不断走向成熟的状态。土地利用的空间格局变化。莱芜市2009年与2013年的土地利用多样性指数均为1.85,反映了近几年土地利用多样性保持相对稳定的状态;同样,两个年份的土地利用优势度指数均为0.23,反映了近几年莱芜市一直保持各土地类型所占比例相对接近;均匀度指数方面,两个年份的土地利用都是0.89,趋近于1,表明该区域各土地类型的分布均匀程度一直保持较高水平。综合来看可以发现该区域人类的活动维持在一个平衡期,人类对自然环境的影响保持稳定,土地利用类型向多样化缓慢发展。另外,借助GM(1,1)模型对莱芜市土地利用变化趋势进行预测,结果表明,莱芜市土地利用的结构变化不是很大,主要集中在城镇村及工矿用地、草地、林地,但各类型土地之间的趋势变化有较大差异。耕地、城镇村及工矿用地、交通运输用地面积一直都在增加,其中城镇村及工矿用地增加最多,2010年到2020年增加了4835.77 hm2;园地、林地、草地、水域及水利设施用地一直在减少,其中草地减少最多,在2010到2020年之间,共减少了2639.18hm2;其他土地则是先减少后增加,最终合计减少了14.40 hm2。(2)土地利用动态变化驱动力研究。对影响该区域土地利用动态变化的驱动力的定性分析表明,自然驱动力中以地质地貌和矿产资源的影响最为显著。而通过主成分分析法的定量分析,提取了两个主成分,将社会经济驱动力归纳成2类,即人口与经济增长和城市发展与投资情况。由两个主成分求出的驱动力的综合得分,2004年至2013年分别为:-2.14、-1.34、-0.41、0.09、0.91、0.52、0.62、0.76、0.59、0.38。由2004到2006年的负值逐渐在2007年转化为正值,并在2008年达到最大,说明影响莱芜市土地利用变化的驱动力先是大幅度增强,后波动上升,最后缓慢减弱,说明驱动力因子的影响逐渐减弱。但是总体上来看,莱芜市土地利用变化的驱动力影响呈现的是上升趋势。(3)莱芜市土地利用的对策与建议。对策与建议是土地利用动态变化驱动力研究的最终归宿,对土地的合理高效利用有其重要的指导作用。本文在对土地利用变化分析与预测及其驱动力研究的基础上,分别从人口、经济发展、城市化建设以及投资等方面提出了优化莱芜市土地利用的对策与建议。
[Abstract]:Land is the most basic material conditions of human survival and development. With the increase of population, the development of social economy, the relationship between human and land is becoming more and more closely, the interaction is also more and more strong, resulting in resources, environmental problems have also been strong concern from all walks of life. One of the main factors of land use change has the cause of environmental change, the research on land use change and its driving force has become a hot research topic in land science. This paper selects Shandong city of Laiwu Province as the research object, the use of Laiwu city from 2009 to 2013 5 years of land use survey data, we first analyze the current situation and dynamic change of land use in the study area, on the basis of on the combination of grey GM (1,1) model to forecast the trend of land use in the area. Then the influence of the Laiwu city 2004 to 2013 statistics of 10 years in the area of soil The driving force of the dynamic changes of the land use change and driving factors in Laiwu City, put forward specific measures and suggestions to realize actual reasonable and effective utilization of land resources, has a certain theoretical and practical significance to realize the sustainable utilization of land resources in Laiwu city. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the dynamic changes of land use.5 years and trend prediction of land use in Laiwu city did not change the overall structure, with farmland, woodland, grassland and urban village and industrial land is the main land use types, the four accounted for nearly 80%, but between the various types of land has undergone great changes. The quantitative changes of land use. Land use change rate, arable land, urban village and industrial land and transportation land increased by 0.34%, 6.13% and 1.92% in urban village and industrial land increased most significantly, increased from 31269.06hm2 to 33 185.59 hm2; garden, woodland, grassland, water and water conservancy facilities land and other land showed a negative growth phenomenon, the grass or most, reduced from 34193.44 hm2 to 32703.59 Hm2, amplitude of 4.36%. change speed, in addition to urban village and industrial land of 1% above, the single dynamic degree of land use are relatively small that, the land use change type is not fast. The comprehensive land use dynamic change rate of about 0.20%, Laiwu city land use overall conversion speed is relatively slow. The degree of land use change. From 2009 to 2013, the land use degree index rose from 266.55 to 268.42, the degree of land use change quantity Delta L=1.87 the change rate of R=0.70%, indicating the development in the period of land use in the area, the impact of human activities on the land use is slightly enhanced. The land utilization rate is higher, from 93.19% in 2009 to 2013 93.28% years, the reclamation rate ranging from 32.22% to 32.33%, almost no change. Landscape deviation from 61.21% to 62.05%, reflecting the strong Laiwu people on the natural environment. The comprehensive transformation, Laiwu city land use degree showing a slight upward trend, which indicates that the overall level of land use in Laiwu city in a stable development and mature state. The spatial pattern change of land use in Laiwu city in 2009 and 2013. The land use diversity index was 1.85, reflecting the diversity of land use in recent years to maintain a relatively stable state; similarly, two year land use index was 0.23, reflecting the Laiwu city in recent years has maintained various land types in the proportion of relatively close; evenness index, two year land use is 0.89, close to 1, showed that the distribution of various land types in the region are The degree of uniformity has been maintained at high levels. It is found that the whole area of human activity to maintain a balance, the human impact on the natural environment remains stable, the land use type to diversification development slowly. In addition, with the help of GM (1,1) model to predict the trend of land use change in Laiwu city. The results showed that the land in Laiwu city the structure change is not large, mainly concentrated in the urban village and industrial land, grassland, woodland, but there is a big difference between the various types of land. The trend change of cultivated land, urban village and industrial land, transportation land area has been increasing, the urban village and industrial land increased most, 2010 to 2020 increased by 4835.77 hm2; garden, woodland, grassland, water and water conservancy facilities land has been reduced, the grassland decreased most, between 2010 and 2020, a total reduction of 2639.18hm2; the other is the land Decreased first and then increased, the final total reduction of 14.40 hm2. (2) land use change driving force of the driving force. The qualitative influence on the dynamic change of regional land use analysis shows that the natural driving force in the influence of geological and mineral resources is the most significant. Through quantitative analysis and principal component analysis and two main components were extracted, the social economic driving force into 2 categories, namely, population and economic growth and city development and investment. The comprehensive score of driving force calculated by two principal components, from 2004 to 2013 were: -2.14, -1.34, -0.41,0.09,0.91,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.59,0.38. from 2004 to 2006, the negative value gradually in 2007 the transformation is positive, and reached the maximum in 2008, shows the influence of land use change in Laiwu city driving force is greatly enhanced after the first, increased volatility, finally decreases slowly, said Ming drive factor Effect is gradually weakened. But overall, Laiwu city land use changes the driving force effect is increased. (3) the countermeasures and suggestions of land use in Laiwu city. The countermeasures and suggestions of land use is the final destination of the driving force of the dynamic changes of land, reasonable utilization has an important guiding role. Based on the analysis and prediction of land use change and its driving force research foundation, respectively from the population, economic development, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the land use of Laiwu city construction and investment.

【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2

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