中国农产品进口的自贸区贸易创造和贸易转移效应研究——基于SYSGMM估计的进口需求模型

发布时间：2018-04-13 18:13

本文选题：农产品贸易 + 自由贸易区　；参考：《农业经济问题》2017年09期

【摘要】：本文基于进口需求模型,采用SYSGMM方法,并结合反事实估计,测算我国多个自贸区对中国农产品进口的贸易创造和贸易转移效应,研究结论表明:中国东盟自贸区、中国新西兰自贸区、中国秘鲁自贸区对中国农产品进口存在贸易创造效应,不存在贸易转移效应;中国新加坡自贸区、中国瑞士自贸区对中国农产品进口既不存在贸易创造效应,也不存在贸易转移效应。中国东盟自贸区贸易创造效应较大,并且存在较长的持续性;中国新西兰自贸区、中国秘鲁自贸区贸易创造占贸易增长比例较大,其中中国新西兰自贸区效应逐年较稳定的递减,中国秘鲁自贸区变化幅度较大。
[Abstract]:Based on the import demand model, using SYSGMM method and counterfactual estimation, this paper calculates the trade creation and trade transfer effects of China's agricultural imports from several free trade zones. The research results show that: China-ASEAN Free Trade area.China New Zealand Free Trade Zone, China Peru Free Trade Zone has trade creation effect on Chinese agricultural products import, no trade transfer effect; China Singapore Free Trade Zone,There is neither trade creation effect nor trade transfer effect in China Swiss Free Trade Zone.The trade creation effect of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone is large, and there is a long lasting effect. In China and New Zealand Free Trade Zone, China Peru Free Trade Zone Trade creation accounts for a large proportion of the trade growth.The free trade zone effect of China and New Zealand decreases steadily year by year, and the change range of China Peru free trade zone is larger.
【作者单位】：中国农业大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F323.7;F752.61

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