中国玉米生产空间布局变化及其驱动因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 20:09

本文选题：玉米 + 空间布局　；参考：《华中农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2000年以来,中国玉米生产空间布局发生变化,呈明显的“北增”态势。然而,玉米在北方地区激增的同时,加重了北方地区的资源环境压力,这给玉米产业的可持续发展带来新的挑战。2015年11月农业部发布《关于“镰刀弯”地区玉米生产结构调整的指导意见》,指出要重点减少非优势玉米产区的生产,继续巩固优势产区的生产。2017年中央“一号文件”指出玉米生产结构调整是农业供给侧结构性改革的重点。由此可见,在加快农业供给侧结构性改革的背景下,玉米生产结构调整和区域布局优化势在必行,且需要不断推进。因此,本文重点考察2000-2014年玉米生产空间布局变化及其驱动因素,以期为玉米生产空间合理布局及产业可持续发展提供参考依据。本文以生产布局理论和新空间经济学理论为基础,对2000-2014年中国玉米生产空间布局变化及其驱动因素进行实证研究。首先,基于2000-2014年玉米产量和播种面积数据,分别采用生产集中度指数、生产规模指数分析玉米生产空间布局在省域及南北方的变化情况;其次,运用全局空间自相关与局部空间自相关指标考察玉米生产的空间相关性;再者,构建空间滞后模型对2000-2014年来玉米生产空间布局的驱动因素进行实证分析。主要形成以下研究结果:(1)通过对玉米生产集中度指数和生产规模指数进行测算,发现玉米生产主要集中在北方地区,其生产空间布局在省份间发生明显变化。同时,根据玉米生产集中度指数、生产规模指数的变化趋势将玉米主产省份划分为持续增长型、持续下降型、平稳型和波动型四种类型。(2)通过对2000-2014年玉米播种面积的空间自相关性分析发现:全局Moran’s I指数表明玉米生产在省份之间具有明显的空间正相关性,空间依赖性特征明显;局部Moran散点图表明随着时间的推移,玉米生产的空间集聚特征有所加强;从局部Moran指数的LISA集聚结果看,2014年玉米生产高-高(H-H)集聚类型主要分布在北方地区,如东北三省及邻近的河北、内蒙古、山西和山东地区,低-低(L-L)集聚类型以东南沿海为集聚地,分布在浙江、江西、福建和广东地区。(3)通过进一步构建空间滞后模型对玉米生产空间布局的驱动因素进行实证研究。结果表明,城镇化、非农就业机会和相对收益等经济环境因素成为影响玉米生产空间布局变化的关键性因素。其中,城镇化和非农就业机会对玉米生产空间布局具有显著的负向作用,而相对收益对玉米生产空间布局具有显著的正向作用。由此可以看出,玉米生产逐渐向城镇化率低、非农就业机会少和相对收益比较高的地区转移。本文基于以上研究结论,提出玉米生产空间布局优化的政策建议:注重地区间玉米生产空间互动效应,继续巩固优势产区玉米生产,调减非优势产区玉米生产;切实保护玉米耕地,保障农户种植收益;减小非农就业机会对玉米生产的负面影响,提高劳动者种植技能;加大农业政策扶持力度,调动农户生产的积极性。
[Abstract]:Since 2000, the layout of space Chinese corn production changes, showed "North increase trend. However, the surge in corn in the northern region of the northern region at the same time, increased the pressure of resources and environment, for the sustainable development of maize industry bring new challenges to.2015 year in November the Ministry of Agriculture issued" guidance on about "adjustment corn production structure camber" area, pointed out the need to focus on reducing the non dominant corn production, continue to consolidate the advantages of producing area.2017 central document pointed out that the adjustment of corn production structure is agricultural supply side structural reform. The key node in the supply side, thus, accelerate agricultural structural reform under the background of maize the adjustment of the production structure and regional layout optimization is imperative, and the need to continue to promote. Therefore, this paper focuses on the space layout of maize production changes in 2000-2014 years and its driving factors, In order to provide reference for the reasonable layout of maize production space and sustainable development of the industry. This paper is based on the production layout theory and new spatial economics theory, makes an empirical study on the layout of Chinese corn production spatial variation of 2000-2014 years and the driving factors. First of all, 2000-2014 years of Maize yield and planting area based on the data, using production concentration index. Production scale index analysis of maize production spatial distribution changes in the province and the north and the South; secondly, using the global spatial autocorrelation and spatial autocorrelation index to investigate the spatial correlation of maize production; moreover, constructing the spatial lag model to analyze the driving factors of maize production in 2000-2014 years. The space layout form the following results: (1) were estimated by concentration index and production scale index of maize production, found mainly in Maize Production Concentrated in the northern region, its production layout change significantly in the provinces. At the same time, according to the concentration index of maize production, the change trend of production scale index of the corn producing provinces are divided into sustained growth, declining type, steady type and wave type four types. (2) based on the corn sown area of 2000-2014 years the spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that global Moran 's I index showed that corn production in between provinces has obvious spatial correlation, spatial dependence characteristics; local Moran scatterdiagram shows that with the passage of time, the spatial agglomeration characteristics of maize production has been strengthened; the results from the local Moran index of LISA agglomeration, 2014 corn the production of high - high (H-H) cluster types are mainly distributed in the northern regions, such as the northeast and neighboring Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shandong regions, low - low (L-L) cluster types in the southeast along the The sea gathers, located in Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian and Guangdong. (3) through the further construction of spatial lag driven model of maize production space layout of the empirical research. The results show that urbanization, non-agricultural employment opportunities and relative income economic factors become the key factor that affects the layout of spatial variation of Maize Production the urbanization and non-agricultural employment opportunities for maize production space layout has a significant negative effect, but the relative income has significant positive effect on maize production layout. Thus it can be seen that corn production gradually to the low rate of urbanization, transfer of non-agricultural employment opportunities and relatively less relatively high income areas. The above research based on the conclusion, put forward the maize production space layout optimization policy recommendations: focus on the interaction of maize production spatial effect between regions, continue to consolidate the advantages of corn production, To reduce the non dominant corn production; protecting Maize Farmland, protect farmers income; reduce non-agricultural employment opportunities negative effects on maize production, improve labor skills cultivation; increase the agricultural policy support, to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers.

【学位授予单位】：华中农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.11

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