山东省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化协调发展与对策研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 22:18

本文选题：工业化 + 城镇化　；参考：《山东理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着工业化和城镇化的深入发展,农村的大量劳动力和资金外流,农业现代化的发展面临着严峻的考验,实现工业化、城镇化、农业现代化(下文用“三化”表示)协调发展成为区域社会经济全面发展的内在要求,也是推动区域经济协调发展的现实选择。山东省是中国经济最发达的省份之一,城镇化进程稳步推进,与此同时山东省亦是农业大省,农业人口基数大。因此,测度山东省工业化、城镇化、农业现代化协调发展度并研究三者互动发展关系,对于山东省统筹城乡发展,促进“三化”良性互动具有一定的现实意义。基于“三化”协调发展的理论基础,以实现区域社会经济发展为目的,采用理论与实证相结合的方法对山东省“三化”协调发展进行研究。具体方法:选取山东省17地市2001~2015年面板数据,采用DEA指数法对农业全要素生产率进行测算并以其作为农业现代化的指标,构造耦合协调模型从系统角度对山东省“三化”协调发展进行测算分析,并运用面板向量自回归模型从内部层面估计了工业化、城镇化和农业现代化的动态关系。研究表明:山东省“三化”协调发展水平整体呈现稳步提高趋势,山东省17地市均有不同程度水平的提高,但是整体协调水平不高,仍有较大的提升空间;从分布区域来看:山东省沿海区域“三化”子系统的协调发展水平整体高于内陆区域“三化”子系统发展水平。工业化对城镇化有显著的单向促进作用,而农业现代化和二者(城镇化和工业化)之间不存在显著的关系;城镇化和工业化存在单向格兰杰因果关系,农业现代化化和二者均不存在格兰杰因果关系;工业化和城镇化二者与农业现代化互动关系较弱导致农业现代化的发展滞后;三化的互动关系检验进一步验证了山东省“三化”协调发展水平较低。在此基础上提出了推进山东省“三化”同步发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the further development of industrialization and urbanization and the outflow of a large amount of labor and capital from rural areas, the development of agricultural modernization is facing a severe test.The coordinated development of agricultural modernization (indicated by the "three modernizations" below) has become the inherent requirement of the overall development of regional society and economy, and is also the realistic choice to promote the coordinated development of regional economy.Shandong Province is one of the most economically developed provinces in China, and the process of urbanization is advancing steadily. At the same time, Shandong Province is also a big agricultural province with a large agricultural population base.Therefore, measuring the degree of coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Shandong Province and studying the relationship between them are of practical significance for Shandong Province to coordinate the development of urban and rural areas and to promote the positive interaction between the "three modernizations".Based on the theoretical basis of the coordinated development of the "three modernizations" and with the aim of realizing the regional social and economic development, this paper studies the coordinated development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province by combining the theory with the empirical method.Methods: the panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2015 were selected, and the total factor productivity of agriculture was measured by DEA index method and used as the index of agricultural modernization.A coupled coordination model is constructed to measure and analyze the coordinated development of "three modernizations" in Shandong Province from the system point of view, and the dynamic relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization is estimated from the internal level by using the panel vector autoregressive model.The research shows that the coordinated development level of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province has a steady increasing trend as a whole, and 17 cities and cities in Shandong Province have improved to varying degrees, but the overall coordination level is not high, and there is still greater room for improvement;From the point of view of the distribution region, the coordinated development level of the "three modernizations" subsystem in the coastal region of Shandong Province is higher than that in the inland area as a whole.Industrialization has a significant unidirectional effect on urbanization, but there is no significant relationship between agricultural modernization and both (urbanization and industrialization), while there is a one-way Granger causality between urbanization and industrialization.There is no Granger causality between agricultural modernization and urbanization, the weak interaction between industrialization and urbanization and agricultural modernization leads to the lagging of agricultural modernization.The interactive relation test of the three modernizations further verifies the low level of coordinated development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province.On the basis of this, the paper puts forward the policy suggestions of promoting the synchronous development of the "three modernizations" in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：山东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27;F327;F427

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