湖南省林产品物流运输需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 13:55

本文选题：林产品 + 物流运输　；参考：《中南林业科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：林业产业是国民经济的重要组成部分,湖南省森林资源丰富,自然地理条件优越,是林产品生产、加工、消费和进出口的大省,湖南省林业正处于向现代林业转型的重要时期。林产品原材料供应地与生产地、消费地存在着地域上的差异,林业资源分布与消费配置错位,林产品物流运输成为调节林产品供需平衡的重要杠杆。在湖南省林业向现代林业转型的关键时期,林产品需求将保持快速增长,因此,有必要加强林产品物流运输需求预测研究,保障湖南省林产品的供需平衡,推动物流运输系统的顺利运行,以促进林业的健康发展。本文以国内外林产品物流和物流运输需求预测研究现状以及相关的理论知识为研究基础,首先分析了湖南省林产品物流运输发展现状,对林产品的供需现状和物流运输基础设施现状两个方面进行阐述。接着,结合实际从生产、消费、市场、运输方式、政策等方面提出了湖南省林产品物流运输需求的影响因素,对林产品总产值、居民消费水平、林业固定资产投资总额、铁路里程、公路里程等林产品物流运输需求的量化指标进行分析,结合湖南省历史数据对指标进行SPSS相关性分析,构建指标体系。之后,运用灰色神经网络构建林产品物流运输需求预测模型,对湖南省林产品物流运输需求预测进行实证分析,利用2001-2013年的数据进行建模和检验,预测出未来三年湖南省林产品物流运输需求量,并将传统的需求预测方法与灰色神经网络预测得到的数据值进行对比分析,证明了灰色神经网络预测方法的优越性和准确性。最后,从政策引导、信息标准化、资源整合与产业集群等方面对湖南省林产品物流运输未来发展提出建议。本文将灰色预测模型和神经网络模型进行组合,建立灰色神经网络预测模型,对湖南省林产品物流运输需求进行预测,为湖南省未来一定时期内的林产品物流运输系统规划提供了理论依据,同时也为国内其他地区林产品物流发展提供一定的借鉴和参考。
[Abstract]:Forestry industry is an important part of national economy. Hunan Province is a big province of forest products production, processing, consumption, import and export. Hunan Province is in an important period of transition to modern forestry.The distribution of forest resources and the allocation of consumption are misplaced. The logistics transportation of forest products becomes an important lever to adjust the balance between supply and demand of forest products.In the crucial period of the transition from forestry to modern forestry in Hunan Province, the demand for forest products will increase rapidly. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the logistics transportation demand forecasting research of forest products to ensure the balance between supply and demand of forest products in Hunan Province.To promote the smooth operation of logistics transportation system in order to promote the healthy development of forestry.Based on the domestic and foreign forest product logistics and logistics transportation demand forecasting research status and related theoretical knowledge as the research basis, this paper firstly analyzes the development of Hunan forest product logistics transportation.The present situation of supply and demand of forest products and the present situation of logistics and transportation infrastructure are expounded.Then, combined with the actual situation, the paper puts forward the factors affecting the logistics transportation demand of forest products in Hunan Province from the aspects of production, consumption, market, transportation mode and policy, and puts forward the factors affecting the total output value of forest products, the level of consumption of residents, the total investment in fixed assets of forestry, etc.The quantitative indexes of logistics transportation demand of forest products such as railway mileage and highway mileage are analyzed. The SPSS correlation analysis of the indexes is carried out based on the historical data of Hunan Province and the index system is constructed.After that, using the grey neural network to construct the forecast model of forest product logistics transportation demand, this paper makes an empirical analysis of Hunan forest product logistics transportation demand forecasting, and uses the data from 2001 to 2013 to model and test.The demand for forest product logistics transportation in Hunan Province in the next three years is predicted. The comparison between the traditional demand forecasting method and the data value obtained by the grey neural network prediction proves the superiority and accuracy of the grey neural network forecasting method.Finally, suggestions on the future development of forestry product logistics and transportation in Hunan Province are put forward from the aspects of policy guidance, information standardization, resource integration and industrial cluster.In this paper, the grey forecasting model and the neural network model are combined, and the grey neural network forecasting model is established to forecast the logistics transportation demand of forest products in Hunan Province.It provides a theoretical basis for the planning of forest product logistics transportation system in Hunan Province in a certain period of time, and also provides certain reference and reference for the development of forest product logistics in other regions of China.
【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.6;F326.2

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