农业转移人口城市定居意愿实证研究与市民化推进策略——基于2015年武汉城市圈农业转移人口动态监测数据的分析

发布时间：2018-04-16 10:14

本文选题：农业转移人口 + 城市定居意愿　；参考：《华中师范大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：农业转移人口的城市定居意愿直接影响新型城镇化战略的推进实施。利用2015年国家卫计委流动人口动态监测数据库中提取的"武汉城市圈农业转移人口数据",建立二元Logistic模型,对武汉城市圈农业转移人口流入地城市定居意愿进行实证分析。研究结果表明,农业转移人口偏好大城市,城市选择呈现由大到小的层级性;对农业转移人口城市定居意愿具有正向影响的因素包括:代际中的"70后"、相对较高的教育程度、省内流动、较好就业身份;具有反向影响的因素包括:流动时间长、学龄子女随迁、低龄留守儿童、城镇职工医疗保险;不显著的因素包括:性别、婚姻、家庭收支比、住房支出收入比、恩格尔系数、就业单位性质、参保新型农村合作医疗保险、参保城乡居民合作医疗保险、参保城镇居民医疗保险。据此从经济、空间布局以及政府公共服务供给等方面提出了推进农业转移人口市民化的策略。
[Abstract]:The urban settlement intention of agricultural transfer population directly affects the implementation of the new urbanization strategy.Based on the data of agricultural transfer population in Wuhan City Circle, collected from the mobile population dynamic monitoring database of the State Health and Family Planning Commission in 2015, a dual Logistic model was established to make an empirical analysis of the willingness to settle down in the cities where the agricultural transfer population of Wuhan urban circle entered the area.The results showed that the agricultural transfer population preferred large cities, and the urban choice showed a hierarchy from large to small, and the factors that had a positive effect on the urban settlement willingness of agricultural transfer population included: the "post-70s" in the intergenerational, relatively high educational level.The factors that have negative influence include: long time of flow, children of school age with moving, children of low age left behind, medical insurance of urban workers, and factors that are not significant, such as sex, marriage, ratio of family income and expenditure, etc.Income ratio of housing expenditure, Engel coefficient, nature of employment unit, new rural cooperative medical insurance, urban and rural residents' cooperative medical insurance, urban and rural residents' medical insurance.On the basis of this, this paper puts forward the strategies of promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population from the aspects of economy, spatial distribution and government public service supply.
【作者单位】：华中师范大学公共管理学院湖北地方政府治理与地方发展研究中心;华中师范大学公共管理学院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费(人文社科类)重大培育项目“基于新型城镇化发展战略需求的财政体制改革研究”(CCNU16Z02007)
【分类号】：F299.2;F323.6

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