江苏省生猪养殖业空间格局变化及其驱动机制研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 23:18

本文选题：生猪 + 养殖业　；参考：《中国农业科学院》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着江苏省二、三产业的不断发展,农业地位逐步弱化,生猪养殖业由传统养殖向规模化养殖跨越,养殖业格局已发生不同程度的改变。伴随着环境问题、价格问题、管理问题的出现,养殖业发展出现瓶颈,需进一步促进产业发展,优化空间格局。合理的生猪养殖业格局有利于环境问题的解决,有利于生产率的提高,有利于优化产业结构,促进地区发展。因此,研究江苏省生猪养殖业空间格局及其驱动机制具有重要的实践意义和理论意义。本文采用定性分析与定量分析相结合手段,运用调研统计、基尼系数、Moran’s I等手段研究,探索2001-2011年10年间江苏省生猪养殖业的空间格局变化;实地走访南通三南村和苏州福利村二村,根据实地调研、理论分析、多元回归等方法,以2001-2011年江苏省县域数据为基础,剖析江苏省生猪养殖业空间格局驱动机制。在此基础上提出江苏省生猪养殖业发展及空间格局优化建议。主要结论如下:第一,江苏省生猪养殖业呈增长趋势,空间格局逐步向江苏省东北部发展。从苏南、苏中、苏北三大经济区、七大农业产区和县域角度,利用基尼系数、Moran’s I等方法探索空间格局的变化趋势,研究表明:2001-2011年江苏省生猪养殖业呈增长趋势,空间格局逐步向江苏省东北部转移,其中2008年成为生猪养殖业格局变化的重要年限。邳州市、东海县、射阳县、滨海县四县(市、区)集聚强度逐步增加,成为新一轮生猪养殖大县。第二,影响生猪养殖空间格局不再为单一驱动,规模和成本收益驱动生猪养殖业空间格局变化。粮食产量、农村人口、农民人均收入、消费者需求偏好与生猪养殖业空间格局正相关,其中地区农村人口为最主要影响因素;而耕地与生猪养殖业空间格局为负相关。环境、融资、市场、交通、组织管理等因素制约着养殖户的成本收益;同时,城市化进程、环境、融资等因素又制约着规模的扩大。这些因素直接或间接影响整个江苏省生猪养殖业的空间格局,构成了驱动机制。第三,生猪养殖业需要优化产业格局,适度规模化发展。沭阳县养殖强度远远高于其他地区环境压力加剧,应逐步弱化其轻度;邳州、东海、射阳、滨海四县(市、区)在距离、农村劳动力、粮食产量、地理位置方面有自身优势,具备生猪养殖业发展潜力;启东市和通州市年增长率超10%,应适当调控养殖速度。
[Abstract]:With the two in Jiangsu Province, the development of the three industry, agricultural status gradually weakening, pig breeding industry from traditional farming to large-scale farming across, aquaculture pattern has changed in different degree. With the environmental problems, the price, management problems, aquaculture development bottlenecks, to further promote the industrial development, spatial pattern optimization reasonable. The pattern of pig breeding industry to solve environmental problems, is conducive to the improvement of productivity, to optimize the industrial structure, promote regional development. Therefore, it has important practical significance and theoretical significance to study Jiangsu province pig breeding industry spatial pattern and its driving mechanism. This paper uses qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis methods, the use of research statistics, the Gini coefficient of Moran s I, "and other means to explore 2001-2011 years 10 years of spatial pattern change of Jiangsu province pig breeding industry; field visits Nantong three village and Suzhou welfare Village village, according to the on-the-spot investigation, theoretical analysis, multivariate regression methods, in the county of Jiangsu Province Based on 2001-2011 years of data, analysis of spatial pattern of Jiangsu province pig breeding industry driving mechanism. On the basis of Jiangsu province pig breeding industry development and spatial layout optimization suggestions. The main conclusions are as follows: first, Jiangsu pig breeding is increasing, the spatial pattern of development to the northeast of Jiangsu province gradually. From South of Jiangsu, the Soviet Union, the three major economic zones, seven agricultural areas and the county, using the Gini coefficient, Moran 's I method to explore the change trend, the spatial pattern of research shows that: 2001-2011 years of Jiangsu province pig breeding industry growth the trend, spatial pattern has gradually shifted to the northeast of Jiangsu Province, which has become an important period of change in 2008. Pizhou pig breeding pattern, Donghai County, Sheyang County, Binhai County, four County (city, district) aggregation intensity increased gradually, become a new round of pig farming county. In second, pig farming is no longer a single driving effect of spatial pattern, scale and cost profit driven spatial pattern changes. Breeding pig grain yield, rural population, per capita income of farmers, consumer preference and pig breeding industry spatial pattern of positive correlation the rural population is the main influencing factors; and the spatial pattern of cultivated land and pig breeding industry is negative. The traffic environment, financing, market, organization, management and other factors restricting farmers cost and benefit; at the same time, the process of city, environment, financing and other factors restricting the expansion of the scale of the spatial pattern of these factors. The influence of Jiangsu province pig breeding industry directly or indirectly, to form a driving mechanism. Third, pig breeding industry need to optimize the industrial structure, moderate scale development. Shuyang County Culture intensity far The environmental pressure is much higher than that of other regions should be intensified, the weakening of the East China Sea, Sheyang, Pizhou, mild; four, Binhai County (city, district) food production in the distance, the rural labor force, and has its own advantages of geographical location, with the pig breeding industry development potential; Qidong city and Tongzhou City, the annual growth rate of over 10%, we should adjust breeding speed.

【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.3

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