我国财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 05:13

本文选题：财政支农支出 + 农村居民消费　；参考：《山东大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：投资、出口、消费是拉动经济增长的三架马车。随着全球金融危机与欧洲债务危机问题的加深,我国出口面临的风险性与不确定性增加；另一方面,现阶段地方政府债台高筑,也日益显现出我国政府投资的不可持续性与局限性。这就要求我国经济增长模式从主要依靠资金投入与外贸出口向内部消费挖潜转变,通过出台积极的财政政策刺激国内消费,尤其是占人口绝对多数且需求相对不足的农村人口消费,拉动总体需求增长。然而,财政支出与居民消费之间存在着刺激消费的挤入效应或抑制消费的挤出效应,具体情形依不同国家的实际情况而定。因而,有关财政政策设计必须建立在对我国政府财政支出对消费影响的具体分析上。本研究首先基于政府财政支出与居民消费的理论与文献分析,,纂过建立理论模型,剖析财政政策对居民消费影响的作用机理；结合财政支农支出政策工具和农村居民消费实际,具体分析政府财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响作用,明确影响路径。其次,运用我国政府财政支农支出与农村居民消费相关时间序列数据,从总量、比重、结构等方面分析了我国政府财政支农支出与农村居民消费的现状于发展趋势；再次,在对时间序列数据进行平稳性检验基础上,对财政支农支出和农村居民消费之间的协整关系进行了检验,验证了财政支农支出与农村居民消费支出之间的Granger因果关系,并通过脉冲响应分析明确了长期影响效应。又次,区分不同类别的财政支农支出结构,分别验证了其与农村居民消费之间的关系,发现农村科技三项费用支出对农村居民消费的影响最弱,其次依次为基本建设支出、农村救济费支出、支援农村生产支出和各项农业事业费支出。最后,基于本研究的主要结论,从扩大财政支农支出水平、优化财政支农支出结构、提高农民收入水平和完善农村消费环境等角度进行了政策设计,为政府有关财政政策和农村消费政策的制定提供依据。
[Abstract]:Investment, exports and consumption are the three carriages that drive economic growth. With the deepening of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the risks and uncertainties facing China's exports have increased. On the other hand, at the present stage, local governments are heavily indebted. Also day by day shows our country government to invest the unsustainable and the limitation. This requires China's economic growth model to shift from mainly relying on capital input and foreign trade exports to tapping the potential of internal consumption, and to stimulate domestic consumption through the introduction of positive fiscal policies. In particular, rural population consumption, which accounts for the absolute majority of population and relatively insufficient demand, drives the overall demand growth. However, there is a crowding effect between fiscal expenditure and household consumption, which can stimulate consumption or restrain consumption, depending on the actual situation of different countries. Therefore, the design of relevant fiscal policy must be based on the concrete analysis of the influence of our government's fiscal expenditure on consumption. Firstly, based on the theory and literature analysis of government financial expenditure and resident consumption, this paper establishes a theoretical model to analyze the mechanism of the influence of fiscal policy on residents' consumption, and combines the policy tools of fiscal support for agriculture expenditure and the actual consumption of rural residents. This paper analyzes the effect of government financial expenditure on rural residents' consumption, and clarifies the influence path. Secondly, using the time series data of the government expenditure on supporting agriculture and the consumption of rural residents, the paper analyzes the current situation and development trend of the government expenditure on supporting agriculture and the consumption of rural residents from the aspects of total amount, proportion, structure and so on. On the basis of the stationary test of time series data, this paper tests the cointegration relationship between the fiscal expenditure for agriculture and the consumption of rural residents, and verifies the Granger causality between the fiscal expenditure on agriculture and the consumption expenditure of rural residents. The long-term effect is determined by impulse response analysis. Again, distinguish different types of financial expenditure structure, verify the relationship between expenditure and rural residents' consumption, find that the rural expenditure of science and technology has the weakest impact on rural residents' consumption, followed by capital expenditure. Expenditures for rural relief, support for rural production and expenditures for various agricultural undertakings. Finally, based on the main conclusions of this study, the policy design is carried out from the angles of expanding the expenditure level of fiscal support for agriculture, optimizing the structure of fiscal support for agriculture, improving the income level of farmers and perfecting the rural consumption environment. To provide the basis for the formulation of government fiscal policy and rural consumption policy.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F812.8;F323.8

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