农业自然灾害对山东省粮食生产影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 01:24

本文选题：农业自然灾害 + 粮食安全　；参考：《山东农业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：粮食安全问题是关系社会稳定、国民经济持续健康发展的重大全局性问题。近年来,农业自然灾害的频繁发生加剧了粮食产量的波动程度,对粮食生产的影响极大。山东省既是中国重要的粮食主产省,又是一个农业自然灾害频发的省份。确保山东省粮食稳产增产,对于维持粮食供需平衡、保障国家粮食安全、促进农民增收、实现农业可持续发展均具有重大意义。本文首先从理论层面上分析了农业自然灾害对粮食生产影响的直接效应和间接效应;其次,利用山东省1978~2014年粮食生产和农业自然灾害数据,分析了山东省粮食生产与农业自然灾害的时序演变趋势与空间分布规律,并运用分解模型、灰色关联分析模型和脱钩理论,测算了农业自然灾害对不同种类粮食单产的影响程度、不同种类自然灾害与多种粮食作物的关联度以及农业自然灾害对粮食生产的束缚强度。得出以下主要结论:从时序维度看,山东省粮食总产量、单产量总体呈现稳步提升趋势,且具有明显的阶段性差异。从空间分布状态看,山东省粮食总产量较高的地市主要集中于中西部地区,且存在显著的区域性差异。山东省农业自然灾害演变趋势主要表现为作用范围不断加剧、旱灾影响力不断提升、灾害链效应愈发明显,且不同种类农业自然灾害呈现出显著的季节性、交替性特征。随着时间的推移,农业自然灾害也表现出大灾次数不断增加、小灾次数不断减少的变化趋势。山东省农业自然灾害的空间分布特点为:东部少、西部多;南部少、北部多。从生产效率看,农业自然灾害对粮食生产的影响程度(58.93%)一直居于首位,远高于技术因素(31.49%)与社会因素(9.57%)的影响。从总体看,旱灾对于粮食生产的负面影响(关联度为0.5874)仍然居于首位,其次则为洪涝灾害(关联度为0.5649)、风雹灾害(0.4877)。从小麦、玉米生产看,不同农业自然灾害对作物单产的影响顺序也表现为旱灾、洪涝灾害、风雹灾害。从生产规模看,农业自然灾害受灾面积与粮食总产量之间的关系仍表现为扩张性耦合状态,即农业自然灾害受灾面积和粮食总产量平均来看仍在不断增长,且农业自然灾害的增长速率要高于粮食总产量的增长速率,粮食总产量仍然受到农业自然灾害的强力束缚。在农田水利设施抗灾能力方面,水库容量与农业自然灾害波动项关联度最高,其次则为有效灌溉面积、农用排灌总动力。最后,从保护农业生态环境、完善水利基础设施建设、提高农业自然灾害预警能力、加强粮食新品种研发、健全农业保险等角度,为山东省粮食生产防灾减灾提供对策建议。
[Abstract]:Food security is a major overall problem related to social stability and sustainable and healthy development of the national economy. In recent years, the frequent occurrence of agricultural natural disasters has aggravated the fluctuation degree of grain production, which has a great impact on grain production. Shandong Province is not only an important grain production province in China, but also a province with frequent agricultural natural disasters. It is of great significance to maintain the balance of grain supply and demand, to ensure the national food security, to promote the increase of farmers' income and to realize the sustainable development of agriculture. In this paper, the direct and indirect effects of agricultural natural disasters on grain production are analyzed theoretically, and the data of grain production and agricultural natural disasters from 1978 to 2014 in Shandong Province are used. This paper analyzes the temporal evolution trend and spatial distribution of grain production and agricultural natural disasters in Shandong Province, and applies decomposition model, grey relational analysis model and decoupling theory. The degree of influence of agricultural natural disasters on different kinds of grain yield, the correlation degree between different kinds of natural disasters and many kinds of grain crops, and the restraint intensity of agricultural natural disasters on grain production were calculated. The main conclusions are as follows: from the point of view of time series, the total grain yield and single yield of Shandong Province have a steady upward trend, and there are obvious stage differences. In terms of spatial distribution, the prefectures with higher total grain output in Shandong Province are mainly concentrated in the central and western regions, and there are significant regional differences. The evolution trend of agricultural natural disasters in Shandong Province mainly shows that the range of agricultural natural disasters is increasing continuously, the influence of drought is increasing, the effect of disaster chain is becoming more and more obvious, and different kinds of agricultural natural disasters show remarkable seasonal and alternating characteristics. With the passage of time, agricultural natural disasters also show a trend of increasing the number of major disasters and decreasing the number of small disasters. The spatial distribution characteristics of agricultural natural disasters in Shandong Province are as follows: less in the east, more in the west, less in the south and more in the north. In terms of production efficiency, the impact of agricultural natural disasters on grain production is 58.93), which is far higher than that of technical factors (31.49) and social factors (9.57). On the whole, the negative effect of drought on grain production (correlation degree is 0.5874) is still in the first place, followed by flood disaster (correlation degree is 0.5649), wind and hail disaster is 0.4877. From the perspective of wheat and maize production, the effects of different agricultural natural disasters on crop yield are also drought, flood, wind and hail disasters. In terms of the scale of production, the relationship between the affected areas of agricultural natural disasters and the total grain output is still characterized by expansionary coupling, that is, the affected areas of agricultural natural disasters and the total grain production are still increasing on average. The growth rate of agricultural natural disasters is higher than that of total grain production, and the total grain output is still constrained by agricultural natural disasters. In the aspect of disaster resistance of irrigation and water conservancy facilities reservoir capacity has the highest correlation with the fluctuation of agricultural natural disasters followed by effective irrigation area and total power of agricultural drainage and irrigation. Finally, from the aspects of protecting agricultural ecological environment, perfecting water conservancy infrastructure construction, improving the ability of agricultural natural disaster warning, strengthening the research and development of new grain varieties and perfecting agricultural insurance, the countermeasures and suggestions are provided for the prevention and mitigation of grain production in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：山东农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：S42;F326.11

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